Damaging Winds in Kansas, May 14, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
614 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and
  evening; a few may become severe with large hail and damaging
  winds

- Additional severe thunderstorm chances Friday through Monday;
  best chances appear to arrive Sunday and Monday

- Hot, possibly recording breaking, temperatures throughout the
  weekend

- Very high fire danger expected Sunday and Monday for areas
  generally west of Interstate 135

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

As of 230 PM Thursday afternoon, zonal midlevel flow was present
across the central Plains with shortwave ridging progressing into
the mid-MS valley. A weak surface trough continues to deepen across
the high Plains of CO and KS with a dryline extending from northeast
CO through the TX Panhandle. Satellite trends reveal a deepening
cumulus field from northeast CO through the OK Panhandle. An area of
convective attempts have been noted across southwest KS within a
weak of surface confluence. These updrafts are developing a well-
mixed boundary layer characterized by temperatures in the low 90s
and dew points in the 30s. Latest HREF guidance suggests these high
based storms will gradually propagate east into the evening
with potential impacts for areas along and west of I-135.
Modest veering of the wind profile is contributing to effective
shear values of 30- 35 kt with MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg.
The deeply mixed boundary layer is contributing to inverted-V
thermal profiles with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. All of
that to say, the strongest storms this evening will have the
potential for hail up to quarter size and damaging winds near
60 mph.

Transitioning into tonight, a northern stream shortwave trough will
shunt a weak frontal zone into northern KS late tonight. In advance
of the frontal zone, a 40-50 kt LLJ will transport additional low-
level moisture across south-central and southeast KS. A few
showers/storms are possible across southeast KS towards dawn Friday
morning as the LLJ veers, contributing to a weak convergence axis
from southeast KS into northeast OK. By Friday afternoon, dew points
in the 50s and 60s will be prevalent across most of the forecast
area. Short range guidance suggests a surface low will be positioned
across northwest OK/southwest KS with a dryline extending from west-
central KS through western OK. The aforementioned weak frontal
zone will stall from southwest KS into portions of northeast KS.
Mixed- layer inhibition is forecast to gradually diminish by
late afternoon along the dryline and stalled front. Thermal
profiles will remain similar to today with deep mixing and
inverted-V profiles. Similar to today, the strongest storms may
produce hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts around 60 mph.
It's a rinse and repeat for Saturday with the dryline and stall
front remaining nearby. The lack of strong large-scale ascent
should keep any convection to isolated or scattered. More-
widespread convection is expected along and north of the warm
front Saturday night as a 50 kt LLJ overspreads the central
Plains. The best chances for convection should remain generally
north of I-70. The dryline will sharpen across central/western
KS Sunday afternoon with another conditionally favorable
environment for severe storms. The most-likely timeframe for
widespread convection appears to arrive Monday as the dryline
sharpens across central KS, the frontal zone sinks south into KS
as a shortwave trough ejects into the central/northern Plains.
Model guidance suggests the overlap of strong instability and
shear for the potential for severe weather. Additional
convection is possible Tuesday afternoon depending on the
placement of the aforementioned frontal zone.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Widely scattered storms are drifting over southern Kansas but
may remain south of the terminals early this evening before
diminishing with loss of heating. Some gusty and erratic winds
may be possible with speeds around 40 mph prior to their
demise. Another small cluster of storms over northwest Kansas
continues to drift south and east towards central Kansas but
this activity is also expected to diminish as the boundary
layer decouples. Some mid and high clouds will linger overnight
with low level wind shear impacting south central and southeast
Kansas and the low level jet ramps up this evening. Isolated or
widely scattered storms may be possible towards the end of the
period but no mention is planned at this time due to limited
coverage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Very high fire danger is expected for areas generally west of I-135
Sunday and Monday. A dryline will sharpen across portions of central
KS each afternoon with hot temperatures, low humidity, and gusty
south winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...AMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-152045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
710 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening across central and
parts of south central Kansas. The primary concerns include large
hail up to quarter size and wind gusts near 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional thunderstorm chances are possible Friday through Monday.
At this point there is too much uncertainty to speculate on the
coverage or severity of storms.

Very high fire danger is expected Sunday afternoon and again Monday
as wind gusts approach 45 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

KSC077-095-150015-
Harper KS-Kingman KS-
629 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT  THROUGH 715 PM CDT...

At 629 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Nashville to 8 miles
west of Hardtner. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Anthony, Harper, Attica, Nashville, Willowdale, Zenda, Spivey,
Waldron, Corwin, Rago, and Crystal Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9835 3738 9835 3739 9846 3753 9847
      3753 9795 3700 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 265DEG 31KT 3743 9849 3701 9880

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CHRISTO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 W Pretty Prairie      37.78N 98.03W
05/14/2026  M65 MPH          Reno               KS   Public

            small duration heat burst evident on PWS.

&&

MWM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Pretty Prairie          37.78N 98.02W
05/14/2026  M62 MPH          Reno               KS   Public

            short duration heat burst evident on PWS.

&&

MWM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
712 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

KSC077-095-173-191-150100-
Sedgwick KS-Harper KS-Kingman KS-Sumner KS-
712 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT  THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 710 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles northwest of
Harper to 7 miles northeast of Amorita. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

These storms will impact eastern Harper, southern Kingman,
southwestern Sedgwick, and western Sumner counties.

Locations impacted include...
Anthony, Harper, Attica, Argonia, Norwich, Spivey, Bluff City,
Danville, Waldron, Freeport, Rago, Runnymede, and Crystal Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9827 3753 9823 3754 9770 3700 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 267DEG 31KT 3741 9817 3699 9819

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CHRISTO