A prolonged hot and dry period was set up for the Panhandles in mid May. And with the lack of significant rainfall to help transition the grasses from cured to green, the fuels were well above the 90th percentile in dryness.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
A prolonged hot and dry period was set up for the Panhandles in mid May. And with the lack of significant rainfall to help transition the grasses from cured to green, the fuels were well above the 90th percentile in dryness. While it's not uncommon for a high based storm or two to occur west of the dryline and create dry thunderstorms, on May 14th it was certainly more scattered to nearly widespread storms that occurred. Several lightning ignitions occurred, and given that the storms had severe dry microbursts associated, the fires that ignited would spread quickly. Thereafter the Panhandles would go through several consecutive days of critical to extremely critical conditions. And the issues of any new starts, as well as active fires that ignited on May 14th would take another run were of high concern. Overall 20 wildfires ranging from over 34,000 acres to some as small as a few acres would ignite in the TX/OK Panhandle between the 14th and the 18th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 2:56 PM CST, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
356 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected to persist
through the weekend. With high end critical, due to higher wind,
days expected Sunday and Monday.
- Severe storms may be possible Sunday and Monday in the eastern
Panhandles depending on the location of a dryline.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Widely scattered thunderstorms have formed across the central and
western TX Panhandle and the OK Panhandle this afternoon. With
very dry conditions in the low levels across the area, not much
rainfall is expected from these storms. The dry low levels will
promote the potential for very strong wind gusts, some of which
may be destructive wind gusts up to 80 mph. Due to this concern, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the entire Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles through 10 PM this evening. Minor forecast
adjustments have been made to account for the watch issuance and
the latest radar trends.
Muscha
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Dry air at the surface is expected once again this afternoon. A
surface boundary with some slight convergence is progged to run
SSW to NNE dividing parts of the eastern combined Panhandles from
the west. East of the boundary slightly higher Tds will keep
minimum RH values in the 20 to 30 percent range while the west
sees RH values in the 12 to 20 percent range. Despite the higher
RH values in the east this is the area likely to see critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon as winds are expected to be
higher in the 15 to 25 mph range. This afternoon a mid level
shortwave will move into the area colliding with increased H7
theta-e advection. This will help kick off some scattered
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. With a dry surface layer, DCAPE
values are progged to be in the 1500-1800 J/Kg range adding to
concerns for severe wind gusts that could potentially exceed 80
mph. With the lack of moisture and such high bases to these storms
expected, little precipitation is expected and should limit
overall hail growth as well. Current CAMs runs suggest storms
starting in the west and moving east through the late afternoon
into early evening. Potentially with a second or third round. With
low precipitation storms, dry lightning is a concern for fire
starts today.
Thunderstorm activity should conclude by 10 PM tonight with maybe
a lingering isolated virga shower somewhere in the area. Surface
winds in the eastern Panhandles may hang on to breezy south to
southeasterly winds in the 15 to 20 mph range while the west sees
winds fall to near 10 mph. A surface low is expected to develop
over the northwest Panhandles into SE CO and NE NM. This low is
expected to keep winds near 15 to maybe 20 mph for parts of the
eastern Panhandles out of the south for Friday afternoon. The
northwestern Panhandles are expected to see more northerly winds
NW of the low. Although chances are really low, would not
completely rule out some isolated pop up showers/storms in the
east tomorrow as well. PoPs may only be around 10 with such low
probabilities of measuring 0.01".
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Dry and hot conditions continue through Saturday, with maybe some
elevated fire weather conditions continuing in the southwestern TX
Panhandle. An upper level system will approach the Panhandles
Sunday bringing with it stronger winds increasing the likelihood
of widespread critical fire weather conditions. This system may
bring even stronger winds Monday. Probability of gusts exceeding
50 mph increase into the 20 to 60 percent range on Monday for the
northwestern half of the combined Panhandles. Also, for Sunday and
Monday, severe storms will be a possibility in the far eastern
combined Panhandles depending on where a dryline sets up.
This aforementioned system will also bring some cooler air for Tue
and beyond. Afternoon temperatures in the 90s to even lower 100s
in some areas, will lower into the 80s for Tue and Wed. PoPs
remain low through the long term mainly relying on the afternoon
heat to dry convection. However, there are some hints that that
may change going into Wed night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Mostly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period.
However, some low precipitation thunderstorms may impact the
terminals between 21Z and 02Z Friday. Confidence is low at this
time especially for KDHT and KGUY. Therefore, have not mentions in
the TAFs at this time, and may need amendments. Please not, due to
the nature of dry surface boundaries, these storms will have a
potential to produce severe and erratic winds at times. The
potential for small hail will exist too, with the probability of
large hail staying fairly low.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Elevated to low end critical fire weather conditions will continue
into the weekend. Sunday and Monday will be the big days to watch
as winds are expected to ramp up. RFTIs may reach as high as 7
especially in the west. A 10 to maybe 20 percent chances exist in
the northwest Panhandles to surpass 50 mph gusts on Sunday.
Monday those probabilities pick up to 40 to 60 percent with a
probability around 20 percent for Amarillo on Monday.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-009-
010-014-015-019-020.
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.
&&
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Amarillo TX 138 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-150645- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 138 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible across the Panhandles this afternoon through this evening. Some of the storms may be severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard in addition to lightning. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across the area this afternoon through this evening. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the eastern Panhandles due to the anticipated critical fire weather threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon into evening, Friday through Sunday. Thunderstorm activity will primarily favor the eastern combined Panhandles. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Sunday and Monday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
532 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0524 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Goodnight 35.03N 101.19W
05/14/2026 E58 MPH Armstrong TX Mesonet
Wind gust of 58 MPH measured at the WT
Mesonet site in Goodnight, TX.
&&
RLFPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
535 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0528 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ESE Pampa 35.54N 100.93W
05/14/2026 E59 MPH Gray TX Mesonet
wind gust of 59 MPH measured at WT Mesonet
site 2 miles ESE of Pampa, TX.
&&
RLFPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
538 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0531 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 WNW Lake Mcclellan 35.23N 100.90W
05/14/2026 E69 MPH Gray TX Mesonet
Wind gust of 69 MPH measured at the WT
Mesonet site 2 miles WNW of Lake Mcclellan.
Severe gusts lasted from 5:31 to 5:33 PM.
&&
RLFPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
543 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0524 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Goodnight 35.03N 101.19W
05/14/2026 M58 MPH Armstrong TX Mesonet
Wind gust of 58 MPH measured at the WT
Mesonet site in Goodnight, TX.
&&
RLFPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
544 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0502 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 10 ENE Palo Duro Canyon 34.98N 101.50W
05/14/2026 M60 MPH Armstrong TX Mesonet
Wind gust of 60 MPH measured at the WT
Mesonet site 12 miles SW of Claude, TX.
&&
RLFPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
545 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0528 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ESE Pampa 35.54N 100.93W
05/14/2026 M59 MPH Gray TX Mesonet
Wind gust of 59 MPH measured at WT Mesonet
site 2 miles ESE of Pampa, TX.
&&
RLFThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The fire started on May 14th and was suspected to be done by dry lightning. As of May 19th the fire was 1,120 acres and was 90 percent contained. This fire was located 3 miles northwest of Forgan OK.
The Wolf Canyon OK fire was another fire caused by lightning on May 14th and it managed to burn 6,746 acres. Given it's larger size and the critical to extreme fire conditions after the last few days it's been a challenge to fight the fire. As of May 19th it was 40% contained. This fire was located 8 miles northwest of Forgan, OK.
The Tex OK Incident was caused due to lightning on May 14th and it occurred about 8 miles southeast of Boise City, OK. The fire is currently at 23,884 acres and is about 70 percent contained. This like many other fires has been a challenge to contain due to several days of critical Fire Weather that followed the dry lightning event, and the amount of resources spread out to various different fires.
On May 14th lightning ignited what is known as the Ballard Fire in Cimarron County OK. While it's believed to be caused by lightning on May 14th, it wasn't noted until May 15th as it may have been to small, and then when the conditions favored the fire to spread on the 15th it became noticeable. The size of the fire in Cimarron County is 9,882, but since the fire burned into Colorado the total acres burned from both states is 18,321. As of May 19th the wildfire was noted as 65 percent contained.
The Sharpe incident was caused by lightning on the evening of May 15th. And the strong winds associated helped drive the fire to the north. With several days of critical to extreme fire conditions it's been a challenge to control. On Sunday the 17th as the fire spread north into Colorado it threatened the town of Campo, CO and forced mandatory evacuations for that town. It also shut down highway 287 at the OK/CO border. As of May 19th the fire has burned 29,209 acres and is only 5 percent contained.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oklahoma in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Oklahoma, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1325072, 1325074, 1325075, 1325076, 1325077.