New Mexico, 2026Wildfire in New Mexico, May 14 to 31, 2026
May 14 to 31, 2026 · NWS ABQ · 4 events in 3 counties and zones
Modest moisture across eastern NM, coupled with increased dry southwesterly flow May 14th to produce abundant dry lightning strikes across east-central and northeastern NM. The critical fire weather conditions allowed these fires to rapidly spread and make wind-driven runs.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $20,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 4
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Modest moisture across eastern NM, coupled with increased dry southwesterly flow May 14th to produce abundant dry lightning strikes across east-central and northeastern NM. The critical fire weather conditions allowed these fires to rapidly spread and make wind-driven runs. The dry lightning starts included the Mimms and Line, and likely the Black Mesa Trail wildfires. The Black Mesa Trail wildfire was reported have quickly moved across the state line into OK before reaching a notable size in NM. A fourth wildfire called the Range fire was reported in Roosevelt County with an unknown cause. A fifth wildfire in Lincoln County was an unfortunate start from a downed airplane in the northern slopes of the Capitan Mountains north of Ruidoso, named the Seven Cabins Wildfire.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 1:37 AM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 234 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026
- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through Saturday across the lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico due to near-record heat.
- Localized erratic wind gust to 55 mph or greater from isolated showers and storms, with little to no rainfall in eastern New Mexico on Thursday.
- Widespread critical fire weather conditions on Sunday, and potentially Monday too, will increase the threat of rapid fire spread.
Area forecast discussion, May 14, 1:37 AM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
237 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026
- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive
populations through Saturday across the lower elevations of
central and eastern New Mexico due to near-record heat.
- Localized erratic wind gust to 55 mph or greater from isolated
showers and storms, with little to no rainfall in eastern New
Mexico on Thursday.
- Widespread critical fire weather conditions on Sunday, and
potentially Monday too, will increase the threat of rapid fire
spread.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 234 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026
Gusty showers have mostly dissipated around the region although
there are a few remnant outflow boundaries still out there. Water
vapor imagery shows that the sub-tropical moisture plume over New
Mexico is being tilted zonally as the state comes under the
influence of westerly flow. Mid-level moisture will still be in
place over eastern NM by the early afternoon, which will be
sufficient for the development of isolated showers and storms. The
boundary layer will be very deep (up to 18kft) so there will be
quite a bit of DCAPE to generate strong downdrafts. In addition,
these will mix down background winds of 20 to 25 kts at 500 mb down
to the sfc, with intermittently gusty winds likely as a result. It
will be slightly more unstable than yesterday so there will be an
opportunity for a few stronger updrafts to develop. This is most
likely in the far eastern plains near the TX border during the mid-
afternoon hours. Despite the moisture and increased cloud cover, the
downsloping breeze will keep temperatures quite warm in eastern NM
this afternoon, challenging a few record highs. It will be a few
degrees cooler in western and central areas, but still above
seasonal averages.
A shortwave trough over Arizona will eject across New Mexico on
Friday. It could generate a few fast-moving showers across the
northeast corner of the state along a backdoor cold frontal
boundary, with gusty and erratic outflow winds once again the
primary hazard. Temperatures will be largely unchanged Friday
despite the intrusion of this front.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026
Saturday will be relatively quiet with light southwest flow aloft
over New Mexico, but winds will strengthen on Sunday as New Mexico
comes under the influence of a Great Basin trough. Increasing
southwest winds at 700 mb will induce the development of a lee side
low during the afternoon hours. Both the GEFS and ENS mean sfc
pressure are showing a 992 mb sfc low developing in southeast CO,
which would be sufficient for wind gusts of at least 40 to 50 mph.
Winds have trended slightly weaker compared to the last forecast
update, but not enough to prevent there from being widespread
critical fire weather conditions.
Windy conditions are forecast to continue into Monday as shortwave
troughs rotate around the main longwave trough off to the northwest.
Models are in quite good agreement with regard to the location of
this trough through Monday, but this decreases on Tuesday. The ENS
exits this trough off to the northeast by Tuesday whereas the other
ensemble systems keep the southerly edge of the jet stream over New
Mexico until around Wednesday before heights finally rise again.
The weakening of zonal flow could allow some moisture to sneak into
eastern NM starting Thursday of next week, with higher chances on
Friday. Strong storms could develop along a tightening dryline these
days as well, but forecast confidence remains low.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026
Showers have mostly dissipated around the region, but gusty
outflow boundaries are still out there and will continue to
produce localized wind gusts up to 30 kts through around 09Z.
Other than that, winds will be relatively light with VFR cigs.
LLWS is likely through around 12Z in eastern NM, including at
KROW.
Breezy southwest to west winds prevail tomorrow afternoon
at most terminals, with gusts of 15 to 25 kts commonplace. High
based showers and a few storms will quickly move from west to east
in eastern NM tomorrow afternoon between 18Z and 23Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026
While it will be dry and breezy in eastern NM this afternoon, RFTI
values were too low (2-4) to warrant an upgrade of the Fire Weather
Watch. However, dry storms will be a threat in the eastern plains
this afternoon. Inverted V soundings will favor locally strong
outflow wind gusts upwards of 50 mph, which could kick up blowing
dust as well. Lingering moisture, a weak backdoor frontal passage,
and a shortwave trough will interact over northeastern NM to produce
a few more gusty showers on Friday afternoon while the rest of the
region remains dry. Winds will generally be lighter on Friday as
well, except for some briefly gusty winds associated with a weak
Pacific cold front passage.
Southwest winds trend stronger over the weekend as New Mexico comes
under the influence of a Great Basin trough. Breezy conditions turn
windy Sunday as humidity drops. Afternoon humidities are forecast to
drop as low as 5% in eastern NM Sunday afternoon. The lower
elevations of central and eastern NM will likely experience 5 to 10
hours of single digit RH on Sunday as well. With strong winds, low
humidity, deep mixing, above normal temperatures, and clear skies,
Sunday has all the ingredients for a high-end Red Flag day.
Critical conditions are likely again on Monday as the Great Basin
trough remains off to the northwest. Forecast confidence remains low
beyond Monday, but there is a low chance that the fire growing
pattern continues into mid-week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 83 46 86 48 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 79 36 83 37 / 0 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 79 44 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 79 43 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 77 45 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 81 47 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 79 44 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 82 53 80 52 / 5 0 10 0
Datil........................... 79 48 77 47 / 0 0 5 0
Reserve......................... 85 41 84 39 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 88 41 87 39 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 75 37 77 38 / 0 0 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 79 54 79 54 / 0 0 10 0
Pecos........................... 80 48 80 47 / 5 5 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 77 45 77 45 / 0 0 5 0
Red River....................... 67 39 68 40 / 5 0 10 0
Angel Fire...................... 73 31 74 31 / 0 0 10 0
Taos............................ 81 39 81 40 / 0 0 0 0
Mora............................ 80 48 79 47 / 5 5 10 0
Espanola........................ 86 48 86 48 / 5 0 5 0
Santa Fe........................ 80 51 80 51 / 5 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 83 48 83 48 / 5 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 87 57 86 57 / 5 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 89 54 88 54 / 5 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 92 49 90 48 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 90 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 91 46 89 44 / 0 0 5 0
Bernalillo...................... 90 53 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 91 44 89 43 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 91 53 90 53 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 91 45 89 44 / 0 0 5 0
Placitas........................ 85 56 84 56 / 5 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 90 54 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 93 58 90 56 / 5 5 10 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 52 81 53 / 5 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 83 52 82 52 / 5 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 84 51 83 50 / 10 5 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 47 84 45 / 10 5 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 81 50 80 49 / 10 5 0 0
Mountainair..................... 84 50 82 49 / 10 5 5 0
Gran Quivira.................... 83 53 81 50 / 10 5 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 87 58 84 56 / 5 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 81 58 78 56 / 5 5 0 0
Capulin......................... 81 47 78 45 / 10 5 30 0
Raton........................... 85 45 83 44 / 10 5 20 0
Springer........................ 87 45 85 45 / 10 5 20 0
Las Vegas....................... 82 50 82 49 / 5 5 10 0
Clayton......................... 90 57 87 54 / 20 10 20 10
Roy............................. 86 50 84 49 / 10 5 30 0
Conchas......................... 94 53 93 53 / 10 5 5 0
Santa Rosa...................... 90 55 89 54 / 20 5 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 97 56 96 55 / 20 10 0 0
Clovis.......................... 96 58 96 56 / 20 10 0 0
Portales........................ 97 59 97 57 / 20 10 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 94 57 94 55 / 20 10 0 0
Roswell......................... 97 64 96 59 / 10 5 5 0
Picacho......................... 91 60 89 59 / 10 5 0 0
Elk............................. 90 58 87 55 / 10 5 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
Wildfire, South Central Mountains
- When
- May 14, 4:12 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- South Central Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Emergency Manager
- Coordinates
- 33.745, -105.459 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Emergency management reported the unfortunate and tragic crash of a King Air medical transport aircraft in the northern slopes of the Capitan Mountains during the early morning hours of May 14th, originally en route to the Sierra Blanca Regional Airport. There were 4 deaths associated with the crash. The Seven Cabins Wildfire began from this crash, with an initial threat to a communication site and corral on forest service lands. The fire perimeter is almost entirely within the Lincoln National Forest along the Capitan Mountains in Lincoln County. Closures on area highways stretched from NM Highway 246 to the north to Forest Road 57 to the south. Peak personnel responding to the fire reached over 1100 individuals during late May with full suppression and offensive strategies as the fire had several days of a very active smoke plume. The fire eventually grew to 31,860 acres by June 2nd, but was under control by the end of May.
Wildfire, Quay County
- When
- May 14, 2:00 PM MST to May 17, 4:00 PM MST
- Where
- Quay County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Emergency Manager
- Coordinates
- 35.104, -103.550 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The lightning caused Mimms fire began on private land in southwestern Quay County, northwest of Jordan and north of NM Highway 156. The fire made wind driven runs on May 15th, growing to a final size of 7,093 acres before coming under control May 17th.
Wildfire, Roosevelt County
- When
- May 14, 4:07 PM MST to May 18, 4:00 PM MST
- Where
- Roosevelt County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Fire Department/Rescue
- Coordinates
- 34.021, -103.480 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The Range Fire was reported in a remote area of northwestern Roosevelt County with its cause unknown, burning west-southwest of Melrose. It burned a reported 2,817 acres according to the WatchDuty webpage with no reported damage.
Wildfire, Quay County
- When
- May 14, 6:14 PM MST to May 16, 4:00 PM MST
- Where
- Quay County forecast zone
- Property damage
- $20,000
- Reported by
- Fire Department/Rescue
- Coordinates
- 35.104, -103.550 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The lighting caused Line Fire began near Nara Visa in far northern Quay County May 14th. The fire made wind-driven runs to the north that day, crossing the state line into TX and damaging some power lines. The NM portion of the fire was determined to be 20,030 acres, out of a total size of 30,144 acres that includes the TX portion of the burned area. Damage amount is estimated based on the report of power lines being damaged.
- Wildfire
- A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Winter Weather and Frost and Freeze in Montana, May 14 to 19, 20266 injured · $10,000 · 6 events
- Dust Storm and High Wind in North Dakota, May 14, 202666 kt wind · 45 events
- Damaging Winds in Texas, May 14, 202662 kt wind · 12 events
- Wildfire in Texas, May 14 to 19, 202610 events
- Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, May 14, 20261.5 in hail · 6 events
- Wildfire in Oklahoma, May 14 to 19, 20265 events
- High Wind in South Dakota, May 14, 202655 kt wind · 4 events
- High Wind in South Dakota, May 14, 202652 kt wind · 4 events
- Dust Storm and High Wind in Minnesota, May 14, 202652 kt wind · 3 events
- Damaging Winds in Colorado, May 14, 202661 kt wind · 3 events
- Damaging Winds in Texas, May 14, 202652 kt wind · 3 events
- Dust Storm and High Wind in North Dakota, May 14, 202652 kt wind · 2 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1330061, 1330049, 1330052, 1330050.