What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Chicago, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 10, 1:50 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- A couple of rounds of severe thunderstorms is possible between this afternoon and this evening. Damaging wind gusts are the biggest concern with storms.
- More severe weather is expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible.
- Thursday will be another hot day with highs in the 80s and lower 90s and afternoon heat indices into the mid 90s.
- Friday and Saturday will be dry and noticeably cooler. A generally cool and at times wet pattern will develop next week.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 10, 1:50 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A couple of rounds of severe thunderstorms is possible between
this afternoon and this evening. Damaging wind gusts are the
biggest concern with storms.
- More severe weather is expected Thursday afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will all be
possible.
- Thursday will be another hot day with highs in the 80s and
lower 90s and afternoon heat indices into the mid 90s.
- Friday and Saturday will be dry and noticeably cooler. A
generally cool and at times wet pattern will develop next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Through Tonight...
Early this afternoon, we find a wave of strong to severe
thunderstorms lifting northeast through north-central IL, now
approaching the Fox Valley as of 230 PM. These storms are the
result of a shortwave impulse pushing northeast through
northwestern IL. We are safely uncapped and these storms are
certainly surface- based and tapping into over 3,000 Joules of
SBCAPE. However, the big lack of shear with rapidly growing
updrafts have kept storms from being able to achieve much
organization. The strongest storms thus far have been tracking
closer to the wave itself while additional storms are going up
farther south. This prompted an initial Severe Thunderstorm
Watch to be issued across our northwest counties. This trend is
expected to continue with most recent CAM guidance resolving the
strongest convection through the rest of the afternoon favoring
areas north of I-80 and especially up toward WI. A new
downstream Watch is in the process of being drawn up as of this
writing. These storms have a history of producing 70+ mph just
west of our CWA and likely at least some small hail. Damaging
winds will continue to be the biggest concern with storms this
afternoon with locally destructive gusts possible. The tornado
threat appears minimal this afternoon, especially if we're
hardly seeing any signs of subtle rotation out to our west right
now where/when the threat would conceptually be "maximized"
around the CWA. Hail, likely sub-severe and non-damaging, is
also a concern with these storms.
The storms have also been producing torrential rainfall with
observations and MRMS reading over an inch in an hour in parts
of north-central and northwest IL and instantaneous rates up to
3 to 4 inches per hour. If this were to continue, this could
certainly lead to localized flooding or ponding issues,
particularly in low-lying and more developed areas. Given that
storms are moving along at around 45 mph and the heaviest rain
is only lasting a handful of minutes over a given area,
widespread flooding issues are not anticipated. This could
change if additional upstream storms develop or convection
clings onto any sort of outflow boundaries meandering about, but
there's no sign of this occurring as of yet.
Looking to our next round, a second shortwave impulse/vort lobe
will eject east across central IL this evening. It's expected
to fire up additional storms across western portions of MO and
IA later this afternoon and carry them east across the area
during the evening along with the help of a modest low level jet
nose pointing into west-central IL. Latest guidance is honing
in on an eastward- propagating bowing MCS for a storm mode.
Still some varying intensities among models with the strongest
storms generally favored near and south of I-80 along the track
of the wave where forcing will be strongest. Nonetheless, areas
farther north are still very much in play for additional severe
storms tonight. Most CAMs also depict a general weakening of
the line with eastward extent across our area, which would make
sense as storms become further removed from the better shear and
kinematic forcing. The severe threat should exit the area to
the east around midnight with some showers or non-severe storms
possibly lingering behind for a couple of hours. Biggest concern
with this second round will again be damaging wind gusts. High
res camps favor these storms leaving behind a stalled outflow
boundary which could possibly retrigger some additional showers
or storms into the night, but this is not anticipated. Flash
flooding appears to again be more of a localized concern, though
it's worth mentioning that areas south of I-80 will be
generally more sensitive to heavy rainfall given recent rain.
Thursday and Thursday Night...
An especially sharp shortwave impulse will quickly spin up east
of the Colorado Rockies this evening and propagate
northeastward through the night reaching our vicinity by
tomorrow afternoon. The surface reflection will be a deepening
center of low pressure. A frontal boundary stalling across
northern IL or southern WI tonight will cling onto to this new
circulation serving as its warm front. The advancement of the
low will push the front farther north into Wisconsin reinforcing
the high theta-e airmass for the day. We may have to keep an
eye out for a sneaky morning setup in which showers and
thunderstorms may attempt to develop along and overtop any
stalled outflow/pseudo-front from tonight's storms, particularly
south of I-80. The NAM is an outlier in showing some spotty
light QPF while other camps remain dry owing to a lack of any
additional forcing. While the potential appears low, felt it was
still worth mentioning given that training and flash flooding
would be a concern if storms do decide to go. Treated this with
unmentionable PoPs (<15%) in the forecast. During the afternoon
prior to the arrival of storms, temperatures are forecast to get
back into the 80s and lower 90s with heat indices well into the
90s.
Guidance is in solid agreement on a strongly forced line of
convection moving east across the area along the storm's cold
front. An initial, pre-frontal push of some severe storms will
be possible as well in the late morning and early afternoon
ahead of the front. Solutions which track the low center nearer
to northern IL are most excited about this initial push
impacting our area, and favor northwestern portions of the CWA.
The primary push of storms is slated for the mid-afternoon
through mid-evening. The storm's warm sector will feature 3,000
to 4,000+ Joules of uncapped SBCAPE and over 50kt of effective
shear. An all hazards severe event appears to be in the cards
with damaging to destructive winds, hail, and tornadoes all
possible. Given a great deal of low level instability, prime
environment for deep, persistent updrafts, and long, curved low
level hodographs ahead of the front, a few strong (EF2+)
tornadoes are on the table. With PWATs hanging out above 1.5"
tomorrow, more torrential downpours and flash flooding will be
possible. Given the progressive nature of the storms among other
factors, widespread impactful flooding does not look likely,
but rather on a more localized basis. Any areas that receive a
good amount of rain or any flooding today and tonight will be
especially vulnerable to flooding issues tomorrow. SPC has
maintained their level 3 of 5 Enhanced Risk over the area.
Doom
Friday onward:
A break in the hot and stormy pattern is expected Friday and
Saturday as a surface high pressure system works through the
region. Highs on Friday should top off in the upper 70s (locally
80), and lows Friday night should fall into the lower 60s.
Ensemble guidance than depicts the development of expansive
troughing across the northern United States next week. While the
main reservoir of hot and humid air would get shunted well
south of our area, a parade of shortwaves may lead to periodic
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms across our region
through next week.
Borchardt
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period:
- Three rounds of strong to severe storms is expected to impact
regional terminals through the TAF window.
A very active period of weather impacting regional terminals
over the course of the next 36 hours. Currently, conditions are
VFR with southwest wind gusts 20 to 25 knots. However,...
Round 1 (this afternoon):
A complex of showers and storms currently (at the time this
discussion was published) over eastern Iowa is expected to move
over northern Illinois, sending a line of strong to severe
storms across the state impacting regional terminals. The
primary concern during this window is for strong and damaging
winds and downpours that reduce vis down to IFR conditions.
Adjusted the TEMPO to account for the earlier than expected
arrival time and narrow down the window for the line to pass
over TAF sites.
Round 2 (this evening through midnight):
There is lower confidence in whether or not VFR showers may
linger between Rounds 1 and 2, but the thinking is that there
could be a break in the weather for a bit. But after 00Z, a
surface boundary will pass over northern Illinois for an
additional line of showers and thunderstorms at area terminals.
While the severe risk is lower than Round 1, it remains non-
zero, with the main hazards still being damaging winds and heavy
rain. With models coming into better agreement with this
window, the PROB30 was converted to a TEMPO with timing adjusted
to a slightly later arrival. Lastly, the VRB wind direction was
kept in the TEMPO to account for a brief pressure drop behind
the line which may cause winds to become squirrelly for a time.
While timing for Round 2 may be adjusted in later TAF packages,
there is higher confidence in VFR and drier conditions
developing once this line exits to the east-southeast through
the rest of the morning and early afternoon.
Round 3 (late tomorrow afternoon):
A cold front is expected to move across northern Illinois
tomorrow bringing another round of strong to severe storms over
the region. All severe hazards (damaging winds, hail, flash
flooding, and tornadoes) is on the table with storms tomorrow.
The primary window for this event may be after 00Z, but
confidence in its arrival as early as 23Z was high enough for
mention in the Chicago terminal TAFs.
DK
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the IL
and IN nearshore waters.
&&
Visit us at weather.gov/chicagoHazardous weather outlook, Jun 10, 2:06 PM CST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
306 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-112015-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
306 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 /406 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Weather hazards expected...
Significant Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 3 of 5 Damaging Wind Risk...up to 75 mph.
Level 2 of 5 Large Hail Risk...up to one inch in diameter.
Level 1 of 5 Tornado Risk.
Elevated Flooding Risk.
DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms will continue into early this evening, with
strong damaging winds the main threat.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Thursday...
Elevated Flooding Risk.
Significant Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 3 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Limited Excessive Heat Risk.
Saturday Night through Tuesday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
DISCUSSION...
Additional severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday. The
period of highest concern will be during the afternoon and evening
when tornadoes, destructive winds, damaging hail, and flash
flooding will be possible.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to pass along reports of severe weather today.
GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:
Moving toward the northeast at 40 to 50 mph.
LMZ740>745-112015-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
306 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Weather hazards expected...
Hazardous conditions for small craft.
Elevated Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 3 of 5 Thunderstorm Wind Gust Risk...up to 60 knots.
Level 2 of 5 Hail Risk...up to 1 inch in diameter.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Thursday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Significant Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 3 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Saturday Night...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Monday and Tuesday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Doom
Visit us at www.weather.gov/chicagoIn the hours before
Local storm report, Jun 10, 2:54 PM CST, 16 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Chicago IL
354 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0335 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Antioch 42.48N 88.10W
06/10/2026 Lake IL Trained Spotter
Spotter reported structural damage as siding
has been ripped off buildings as strong wind
gusts came through. Small tree limbs are
down as well.
&&
DKLocal storm report, Jun 10, 2:58 PM CST, 12 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Chicago IL
358 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0345 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 NNE Homer Glen 41.61N 87.93W
06/10/2026 Will IL Public
Personal weather station measured 65 mph
wind gust. Time estimted by radar.
&&
DKLocal storm report, Jun 10, 3:02 PM CST, 8 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Chicago IL
402 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 N Naperville 41.79N 88.15W
06/10/2026 DuPage IL Public
Reports of power lines down and four inch
diameter tree branches down. Time estimated
by radar.
&&
DKLocal storm report, Jun 10, 3:04 PM CST, 6 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Chicago IL
404 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 E Glenview 42.08N 87.80W
06/10/2026 M62 MPH Cook IL Public
Personal weather station measured strong
wind gusts. Time estimated by radar.
&&
DKLocal storm report, Jun 10, 3:07 PM CST, 3 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Chicago IL
407 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0358 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Midway Airport 41.78N 87.76W
06/10/2026 M72 MPH Cook IL ASOS
ASOS station KMDW Chicago Midway.
&&
DKLocal storm report, Jun 10, 3:10 PM CST, 0 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Chicago IL
410 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0334 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 5 ENE Plattville 41.56N 88.30W
06/10/2026 M63 MPH Kendall IL Public
Personal weather station measured wind gust.
Time estimated by radar.
&&
DK