What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Columbia, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 1:56 PM EST, 2 hours 29 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1. Showers and thunderstorms expected through next week
Area forecast discussion, May 22, 1:56 PM EST, 2 hours 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
256 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated forecast for showers and thunderstorms today and
tomorrow with marginal threat of severe weather. Aviation
updated for 18Z TAFs.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Showers and thunderstorms expected through next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Showers and thunderstorms expected through next
week
The synoptic pattern is persistent through next week with upper
level ridging over the western Atlantic and upper disturbances
lifting to the west and north. Global ensemble mean precipitable
water values are in the 1.5-2.0 inch range through most of next
week. This pattern supports at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms enhanced by the shortwave activity throughout the
period. The most active timeframe may be tonight and Saturday.
The axis of the ridge will be a little further east at this time
allowing the deeper moisture and better upper support into the
forecast area. The blended guidance shows likely to categorical
rain chances through the holiday weekend. While most areas will
likely see rainfall (especially northern and western portions of
the forecast area), this may be a bit deceiving as the
convection may be more periodic as opposed to a complete washout
with persistent rain. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
lead to localized heavy rainfall each day, particularly if
training cells develop. This raises concern for localized flash
flooding mainly in urban and flood prone areas.
Severe potential through Saturday: Isolated strong
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon with SPC
Mesoanalysis showing mlCAPE around 1500 J/kg in the CSRA and
locally enhanced helicity along the wedge boundary in the
Upstate and western Midlands. A low level jet will lift out of
the Deep South and into the Southern Appalachians tonight and
Saturday advecting moisture and increasing shear over the
forecast area. An outflow boundary from storms to our west
should trigger additional convection this evening as it moves
east. An upper level shortwave will help sustain the storms as
they move into the western FA possibly leading to elevated
thunderstorms this evening and tonight. With poor low level
lapse rates the threat of severe weather is low but can't be
ruled out. The higher threat of severe weather is Saturday with
20-30 kts of 0-6 km shear over the region which could allow
multicell clusters or bowing segments to develop in the
afternoon. Confidence is low though given the expected
widespread cloud cover and rainfall over the area which could
hinder lapse rates.
The pattern remains active in the extended with a persistent
ridge to our east and troughing to the west. PWAT values remain
above 1.5 inches through the period with SW flow over the
Southeast. This pattern will support daily shower and
thunderstorm chances through next week. In general the
convective activity should follow a diurnal trend but shortwave
troughs may sustain storms outside of the afternoon timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mix of restrictions likely throughout the TAF period with scattered
showers and storms.
Fairly moisture rich summer pattern continues across the region with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.
Coverage will become more widespread later this evening with
thunderstorm potential also increasing. TAFs reflect the increasing
coverage throughout the afternoon and into the evening with a
transition from prob30 to tempo. Winds this afternoon and
evening will remain generally out of the south, 6-10 knots
before subsiding overnight. Showers and storms should then
subside later tonight leaving widespread again for Saturday
morning, likely IFR cigs. Additional rounds of showers and
storms likely Saturday afternoon towards the end of the TAF
period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Abundant low level moisture will
bring more rounds of morning restrictions from fog/stratus
through the weekend along with scattered afternoon showers and
storms possible each day into the middle of next week.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...42
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 22, 2:53 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
353 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
SCZ020-222045-
Newberry SC-
353 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Newberry
County through 445 PM EDT...
At 353 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Newberry College, or near Newberry, moving north at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Newberry, Whitmire, Prosperity, Newberry College, Newberry County
Airport, Silverstreet, Newberry County Detention Center, Bush River
Fire Station, Enoree Ranger District Office, and Kinards.
This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 62 and 77.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3447 8155 3445 8155 3445 8154 3447 8151
3446 8151 3418 8152 3417 8171 3419 8173
3418 8177 3434 8183 3437 8178 3444 8173
3446 8169 3453 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 171DEG 17KT 3427 8168
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CJRSpecial weather statement, May 22, 2:56 PM EST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
356 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
GAZ040-SCZ018-222045-
Lincoln GA-McCormick SC-
356 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Lincoln and
northwestern McCormick Counties through 445 PM EDT...
At 356 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lincolnton, or 18 miles east of Washington, moving north at 15 mph.
...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
McCormick, Lincolnton, Elijah Clark State Park, Hickory Knob State
Resort Park, Bordeaux, Mount Carmel, Baker Creek State Park, Leroy's
Ferry Recreation Area, Willington, Curry Hill, Hawe Creek Campground,
New Hope, and Long Cane Creek Picnic Area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
If on or near Lake Strom Thurmond, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
&&
LAT...LON 3407 8253 3407 8251 3408 8248 3406 8245
3406 8233 3397 8230 3402 8225 3401 8223
3400 8223 3372 8235 3377 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 192DEG 14KT 3383 8244
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CJRSpecial weather statement, May 22, 3:15 PM EST, 1 hour 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
415 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
SCZ020-026>028-222045-
Lexington SC-Newberry SC-Richland SC-Saluda SC-
415 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Newberry, northwestern Lexington, east central Saluda and
northwestern Richland Counties through 445 PM EDT...
At 414 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dreher Island State Park, or 7 miles northeast of
Batesburg-Leesville, moving north at 25 mph.
...Boaters on Lake Murray Should Seek Safe Harbor...
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Dreher Island State Park, Lighthouse Marina, Cedar Grove Fire
Station, South Shore Marina, Oswald Park, Shull Island, Bundrick
Island, Fairview Fire Station, Putnam's Landing, Siesta Cove Marina,
Murray, Rocky Point Recreation Area, Lake Murray Shores, Delmar,
Hollow Creek Public Park, Melvin Park, and Riverbend Boat Ramp.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3393 8135 3397 8154 3419 8153 3413 8125
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 186DEG 21KT 3400 8146
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MGSpecial weather statement, May 22, 4:02 PM EST, 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
502 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
SCZ020-026-222130-
Newberry SC-Saluda SC-
502 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Newberry and central Saluda Counties through 530 PM EDT...
At 502 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Saluda, or 11 miles northwest of Batesburg-Leesville, moving north at
15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Saluda, Prosperity, Silverstreet, Hollywood Elementary School, Emory,
Stoney Hill, Saluda Co Sheriff's Office, Scurry Airport, Circle Fire
Station, Hickory Grove, Wyses Ferry, and Saluda High School.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3392 8157 3393 8179 3421 8184 3420 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 183DEG 14KT 3400 8170
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MGSpecial weather statement, May 22, 4:07 PM EST, 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
507 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
GAZ063>065-077-222145-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-McDuffie GA-Columbia GA-
507 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of McDuffie,
southwestern Columbia, northwestern Burke and southwestern Richmond
Counties through 545 PM EDT...
At 506 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Stapleton, or 9 miles northeast of Gibson, moving
north at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Grovetown, Evans, Thomson, Harlem, Thomson-McDuffie County Airport,
Blythe, Dearing, Leitner Lake Conference Center, Liberty Park
Community Center, Sweetwater Park, Arties Pond Public Fishing Area,
McDuffie County Fire Department, Adamsville, Thomson Fire Department,
McDuffie Regional Medical Center, University Hospital McDuffie, White
Oak Campground, Autney, Boneville, and Columbia County Jail.
This includes Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 167 and
191.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3353 8216 3324 8221 3324 8224 3327 8226
3327 8229 3331 8234 3331 8239 3334 8244
3334 8250 3336 8253 3335 8255 3341 8255
3346 8259 3355 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 183DEG 14KT 3333 8249
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MGSpecial weather statement, May 22, 4:11 PM EST, 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
511 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
SCZ027-030-222145-
Lexington SC-Aiken SC-
511 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Lexington and northeastern Aiken Counties through 545 PM EDT...
At 510 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Aiken State Park, or 14 miles south of
Batesburg-Leesville, moving north at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Batesburg-Leesville, Wagener, Camp Kinard, Steedman, New Holland,
Kneece, Samaria Fire Station, and Cedar Pond Campground.
This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 29
and 48.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3364 8157 3387 8159 3388 8157 3390 8156
3391 8155 3391 8129 3363 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 183DEG 14KT 3371 8146
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MG