What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 23, 6:48 AM EST, 12 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Blizzard conditions expected to continue through the morning hours, gradually winding down in the afternoon. 2) Additional minor coastal flooding possible with the Monday afternoon high tide cycle. There is a low probability of major coastal/shoreline impacts along the south shore of western Long Island, Twin Forks of LI, and north shore of Long Island. 3) A passing warm front will bring some light snow and rain on Wednesday. A stronger low passing close by will bring additional wintry precip Thursday into Thursday night.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 23, 6:48 AM EST, 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
648 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There have been no changes to headlines and only some
adjustments to snowfall, mainly over western portions of the
Lower Hudson Valley.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Blizzard conditions expected to continue through the morning
hours, gradually winding down in the afternoon.
2) Additional minor coastal flooding possible with the Monday
afternoon high tide cycle. There is a low probability of major
coastal/shoreline impacts along the south shore of western Long
Island, Twin Forks of LI, and north shore of Long Island.
3) A passing warm front will bring some light snow and rain on
Wednesday. A stronger low passing close by will bring additional
wintry precip Thursday into Thursday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A major winter storm will continue to impact the area early this
morning with multiple bands of heavy snow expected to pivot NW
off the ocean and across the area. The next 4 hours are
expected to feature some of the heaviest snowfall with hourly
rates of 2 to 3 inches likely. What is a bigger challenge is
exactly how far west these bands get and how long they stay over
a particular location. Outside of these bands, there is
subsidence and lighter snowfall. Much of the area has seen
anywhere from 7 to 14 inches, but there were lower amounts
across northern and western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley.
We can expect another 6 to 12 inches, much of which will come
the next 6 to 9 hours. The back edge across western Orange
County looks like it will be on the low end, perhaps another 4
inches. Hires guidance pointing to this area to be along the
back edge in the subsidence of the storm. In addition, don't be
surprised to see a brief flash of lightning in the heavy bands.
There have been reports from the public as well from lightning
detection.
As the storm pulls away late this morning into the afternoon,
bands on the backside will dissipate, but it could take some
time. Hires guidance locking on to an area from eastern portions
of the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT southward in the NYC/NJ
metro. These bands in past historic storms can often be areas
of exceptionally high rates, but can be a challenge to forecast.
Any lingering snow bands should dissipate by early evening.
The wind forecast has changed little with peak winds being this
morning into early this afternoon. Gusts of 40 to 60 mph can be
expected through the morning hours, with the upper end across
far eastern LI and SE CT. Winds will then gradually ramp down
through the afternoon into the evening.
The good news is the airmass is not exceptionally cold with
highs around freezing for most locations. Wind chills values
will be in the teens to around 20.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The south shore back bays of LI and Lower NY Harbor achieved
minor flood benchmarks this morning. Across the eastern bays of
LI, Riverhead did hit moderate. Winds ramped up slower than
forecast. This is combined with a northerly flow has kept water
levels in many cases about a foot lower than expected. We are
seeing a similar occurrence across LI Sound. The coastal flood
warning will be allowed to expire.
An additional round of minor coastal flooding likely with the
afternoon high tide cycle for the southern bays of Long island
from residual tidal piling, and along the twin forks, particularly
the north shore of the south fork of LI and Orient Point.
Along the oceanfront, areas of dune erosion are likely, with
localized overwashes possible into Monday morning.
.KEY MESSAGE 3...
As a clipper low passes to the north on Wednesday, an associated
warm front should bring some light snow and rain on Wed. Accumulations
should be on the light side, ranging from less than an inch
across Long Island, to around an inch in NYC and along the CT
coastline, to 1-2 inches north/west of there.
A stronger low moving from the OH valley to the lower Great Lakes on
Thu could bring more wintry precip. NBM thermal profiles were mainly
supportive of snow and/or rain. Any snow amts should be light,
no more than an inch or two of snow most places and a light
glaze of ice inland NW of NYC. Either way advisories could be
needed for parts of the interior north/west of I-287 in NJ/NY
and along the I-84 corridor in CT.
High temperatures Tuesday range from the upper 20s to lower 30s,
then trend closer to normal the rest of the week. This will allow
for gradual snow melt each day, and with mostly sub-freezing
temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent re-freeze of
snow melt.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TODAY**
Low pressure offshore continues to rapidly intensify with
blizzard or near blizzard conditions expected through about
15z. Expect 1/4 to 1/2SM visibilities and strong wind gusts. The
overall snow intensity should start weakening Monday morning
after around or after 15z with snow ending from west to east
Monday afternoon. LIFR/VLIFR expected through this morning.
Improvements to MVFR likely by afternoon.
In addition, expect areas of blowing snow through the day Monday.
NE winds 25-35 kt with gusts 35-45 kt expected through this
morning. The strongest winds will occur across the NYC metro
terminals, Long Island and southern CT terminals. Gusts 50-55 kt
possible at KJFK, KLGA, KISP, KBDR and KGON through this morning.
LLWS also expected tonight and early Monday morning with wind
speeds at 2kft 50-60 kt.
Total Forecast Snow Amounts
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR: 18-22 inches
KISP: 20-24 inches
KBDR/KGON: 15-20 inches
KSWF/KHPN: 12-18 inches
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of heaviest snow and lowest conditions may be off by 1-3
hours. Amendments expected through Monday.
Gusts 50 kt possible late tonight into Monday morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds gust 20-25kt.
Tuesday Night-Wednesday: MVFR possible with chance of light
snow Tuesday night, then rain/snow mix Wednesday.
Thursday: MVFR or lower. Rain/snow mix possible near coast with
snow possible inland.
Friday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A major winter storm will impact the waters through Monday.
A Storm Warning remains in effect for all waters expect the NY
Harbor where a Gale Warning is in effect.
Winds will continue to increase through about daybreak. A brief
period of hurricane force wind gusts are possible in the
eastern ocean zone (Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point). Strong
winds will lead to 14 to 20 ft seas on the ocean and about 6 to
10 inches on the LI Sound.
Conditions gradually start improving this afternoon into tonight.
Additional headlines will need to be issued as conditions step
down.
SCA conditions linger into Tue morning on the ern Sound and
Peconic/Gardiners bays, with NW flow still gusting up to 25 kt, and
on the ocean for gusts up to 30 kt for seas 6-8 ft. Some 5-6 ft seas
should linger on the ocean into early Tue evening.
An extended period of SCA cond then likely on the ocean from Wed
into Fri as a series of frontal systems pass through, mainly for
hazardous seas. SW flow 20-25 kt expected on the ocean with warm
frontal approaches daytime Wed and again Thu night.
Along the oceanfront, areas of dune erosion are likely, with
localized overwashes possible tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.CLIMATE...
With the potential major snowstorm Sunday into Monday, there is
the potential for some snowfall records to be broken. Here are
the records for Sunday and Monday for the climate sites:
Sun 2/22 Mon 2/23
Central Park, NY: 6.0/2008 4.8/1972
LaGuardia, NY: 6.4/2008 4.1/1972
John F Kennedy, NY: 6.9/2008 6.1/1987
Newark, NJ: 6.8/2008 4.1/1987
Islip, NY: 5.5/2008 6.7/1987
Bridgeport, CT: 7.0/2008 2.6/1987
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST
this evening for NYZ079>081-179.
NJ...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-340-
345-350-353-355.
Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ335.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.
&&
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...Goodman/DWHazardous weather outlook, Feb 23, 6:17 AM EST, 43 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service New York NY
617 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-176>178-241130-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
617 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Blizzard Warning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355-241130-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
617 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Storm Warning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
NYZ079>081-179-241130-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Southern Nassau-
617 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Blizzard Warning.
Coastal Flood Advisory.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
ANZ338-241130-
New York Harbor-
617 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Gale Warning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
ANZ335-241130-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
617 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Storm Warning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Feb 23, 6:43 AM EST, 17 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
643 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM Snow 1 WNW Shrub Oak 41.33N 73.84W
02/23/2026 M11.0 Inch Westchester NY CO-OP Observer
&&Local storm report, Feb 23, 6:49 AM EST, 11 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
649 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0642 AM Snow Mount Sinai 40.93N 73.02W
02/23/2026 M18.5 Inch Suffolk NY CO-OP Observer
&&Local storm report, Feb 23, 6:50 AM EST, 10 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
650 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 AM Snow 1 WNW Monroe 41.33N 74.21W
02/23/2026 M12.0 Inch Orange NY Trained Spotter
&&Local storm report, Feb 23, 6:53 AM EST, 7 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
653 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 AM Snow 1 W Elmhurst 40.74N 73.91W
02/23/2026 M15.0 Inch Queens NY Trained Spotter
&&Local storm report, Feb 23, 6:57 AM EST, 3 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
657 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Peconic 41.04N 72.47W
02/23/2026 M69 MPH Suffolk NY Mesonet
Mesonet station SOUT Southold.
0520 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Eatons Neck 40.95N 73.40W
02/23/2026 M67 MPH Suffolk NY Mesonet
Mesonet station XEAT Eatons Neck.
0400 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 26 S Robert Moses State 40.25N 73.16W
02/23/2026 M65 MPH ANZ373 NY Mesonet
Mesonet station 44025 26 SSE Robert Moses
State Park.
0320 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 W Fresh Meadows 40.73N 73.82W
02/23/2026 M64 MPH Queens NY Mesonet
Mesonet station QUEE Kew Garden Hills.
0109 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 W Hither Hills State 41.01N 72.06W
02/23/2026 M62 MPH Suffolk NY Mesonet
Mesonet station XNAP Napeague.
0517 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst NYC/JFK 40.64N 73.76W
02/23/2026 M62 MPH Queens NY ASOS
ASOS station KJFK NYC/JFK Airport.
0630 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Fordham 40.87N 73.89W
02/23/2026 M61 MPH Bronx NY Mesonet
Mesonet station BRON Fordham.
0517 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 N Glen Cove 40.90N 73.63W
02/23/2026 M59 MPH Nassau NY Mesonet
Mesonet station XBAY Bayville.
0535 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ENE Baiting Hollow 40.97N 72.71W
02/23/2026 M59 MPH Suffolk NY Mesonet
Mesonet station EW4141 Baiting Hollow.
0105 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSW Westerleigh 40.60N 74.15W
02/23/2026 M58 MPH Richmond NY Mesonet
Mesonet station STAT College of Staten
Island.
&&Local storm report, Feb 23, 7:00 AM EST, 0 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
700 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0653 AM Snow 2 NE Highland Mills 41.37N 74.10W
02/23/2026 M11.0 Inch Orange NY Cocorahs
&&