High Surf in Hawaii, February 23 to 24, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
741 PM HST Mon Feb 23 2026

.UPDATE...

No updates made. Previous forecast remains on track.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

After showers and isolated thunderstorms depart the Big Island
tonight, an upper level ridge will move in and bring a return to
cooler and drier trades from Tuesday through Thursday. Winds will
veer to southeast Friday and remain that way into the weekend,
bringing warmer temperatures and a sea- and land-breeze pattern.
Sunday night into early next week has the potential for another
boundary and another wet pattern.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM HST Mon Feb 23 2026

The Flood Watch which had been in effect for Maui County, where
only light showers remain, has been cancelled. Radar shows
stronger showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Big Island.
The thunderstorms were located near Volcano. Breezy to locally
windy trade winds have developed and are expected to remain over
the area through Thursday. This will bring additional showers
over the next few days, mainly windward and mauka, as usual.

An upper level ridge will finally replace the trough that has
brought significant rains to the area in recent days. As the
trough moves out to the east tonight, it will take any remaining
thunderstorms with it. Tuesday through Thursday we will see a
typical trade wind pattern. Drier and cooler air will be advected
into the region. This will allow for cool mornings in areas
sheltered from the trades.

As the upper level ridge axis moves east of the state Thursday
night into Friday, our low level flow will veer and become
southeasterly. This will begin to slowly increase low-level
moisture. As wind speeds weaken, sea- and land-breezes will
develop this coming weekend. This pattern typically results in
showers forming both windward and leeward. Long range models show
the potential for a boundary to bring an increase in showers
Sunday night or Monday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 735 PM HST Mon Feb 23 2026

Windward showers will continue to taper off this evening and
overnight, with only the windward side of the Big Island seeing
persistent shower activity through the day Tuesday. Weather
models suggest another light band of showers may impact windward
sites during the day Tuesday, however confidence was lacking
outside of the Big Island, so only left mention of VCSH for those
sites. Otherwise, NE winds will continue to trend downward through
the period.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for windward Maui and the Big
Island, with conditions expected to improve for Maui overnight.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate upper turbulence for
FL270/350, however this is expected to improve and eventually drop
off overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 735 PM HST Mon Feb 23 2026

Strong high pressure remains far north of the state, while a
surface trough stretching across the Big Island drifts southward.
Fresh to locally strong northeasterly trade winds prevail along
and north of the trough. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for select
waters has been issued through Tuesday and will likely be extended
through Tuesday night due to a combination of winds and seas.
Trade winds will decline on Wednesday and Thursday as the high to
the north moves east and weakens, but winds may hold around SCA
strength across the typically windier waters and channels around
Maui County and Big Island Wednesday. An approaching front will
likely cause winds to decline and veer out of the southeast
Thursday night into Saturday.

A large, long period north-northeast (010-030 deg) swell will
continue to rapidly build through the night and peak overnight
and early Tuesday. The swell at NDBC buoy 51000 has been holding
at 12 to 14 feet at 14 to 16 seconds during the past several
hours, and an additional rise is possible into the night This
swell will produce breaking waves at High Surf Warning levels
across most north and east facing shores through Tuesday. Due to
the direction of the large swell, exposed west facing shores of
West Maui, western Molokai, and North Kohala on the Big Island
will likely experience High Surf Advisory conditions. The north-
northeast swell will gradually decline Tuesday night through
Friday. In addition to this swell, a small pulse of overlapping
west- northwest swell is expected through Wednesday.

Due to the direction of the large north-northeast (010-030)
swell, some overwash will be possible along low-lying coastal
roads and infrastructure in windward areas, especially in the
Keaukaha area east of Hilo. Hazardous conditions and heavy surges
are expected in north facing harbors, mainly in Hilo and Kahului,
and a Marine Weather Statement remains in place to highlight this
threat.

Very small wintertime surf will continue along south facing
shores this week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Big Island East-Big
Island North-Kauai East-Kauai North-Koolau Windward-Maui Central
Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai Windward-
Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kohala-Lanai
Windward-Maui Leeward West-Molokai West.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-
Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward
Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo
Channel.

&&

UPDATE...Walsh
DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...Shigesato