Hail in Arkansas, May 5, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1246 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

 - Thunderstorm chances tonight and remain through Tuesday night.
   Some severe weather potential will exist overnight and Tuesday
   late afternoon/early evening.

 - Below normal temperatures briefly return mid-week.

 - Warmer temperatures from Friday on, with low rain chances
   returning for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A vort max moving across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma
interacting with an increasing low level jet late Monday evening was
aiding in the development of scattered convection moving eastward
within the mean mid level flow. Elevated instability along with
convection forming into clusters, were creating limited severe
potentials in the form of locally damaging winds as the primary
threat. Deep layer shear and steep mid level lapse rates would
allow for hail to be a secondary threat. The greater severe threat
resided in east/southeast Kansas, closer to the cold front and an
west-east elevated theta-e axis.

These storm clusters are expected to push east and southeast into
Tuesday morning with the movement of any out flow boundaries and
surface low pressure/associated cold front sliding southeast into
the CWA. The greater storm potentials and limited severe potential
are expected over far northeast Oklahoma into far northwest
Arkansas into the early morning hours before instability weakens.
Much of the early morning convection is forecast to move east of
the CWA by mid morning Tuesday. Frontogenetic forcing between the
surface and the elevated 850-mb front could create light rain
showers Tuesday morning over the northern half of the CWA before
elevated instability begins to increase again.

Surface cold front is progged to be moving across southeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas through the afternoon hours with slight to
chance thunderstorm potentials mainly along and ahead of the
boundary. Latest indications continue to hint that storm
coverage/development could be limited until frontogenetic forcing
can interact with max heating and the re-development of a low level
theta-e axis. However, by 00z Wednesday, the surface front looks be
over far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Thus, the
greater storm and severe potentials look to be during the Tuesday
mid/late afternoon into early evening time frame before storms move
off to the east. Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe
threats, though a non-zero tornado threat also exists with moderate
0-1km storm relative helicity ahead of the front. Severe potentials
are forecast to weaken through the evening hours for the CWA.

Tuesday evening/night the surface cold front looks to hold up over
far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Aloft, the 925-mb
boundary sets up around the Interstate 40 corridor, with the 850-mb
front over northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Will hold
onto slight to low chance thunderstorm potentials mainly along
and south of the 925-mb front, while a slight chance of rain
showers remains for the northern half of the CWA Tuesday night.

Temperatures remain warm into Tuesday morning and should be allowed
to warm up into the 80s ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon over
the southern half of the CWA. Behind the surface front,
temperatures during the day do not look to warm all that much
Tuesday morning and then begin to fall through the afternoon
hours for northeast Oklahoma. By late afternoon temps in the
upper 50s near the Kansas border to mid 80s near the Red River are
forecast. Temperatures continue to fall Tuesday night with lows
in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

The cold front gets a push southeastward during the day Wednesday as
a low pressure system moves southeast out of the Rocky Mountains
and into the Plains. Thus, rain chances are forecast to taper off
and exit Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Upper level trof axis
to the low moves across the region Wednesday night which will
help to scatter cloud cover and aid in the coldest temperatures of
the forecast period. Lows in the 40s are forecast for much of the
CWA, though upper 30s could develop within the normal cool
locations. Cool conditions remain into Thursday before southerly
winds transport warmer temperatures back into the CWA Friday.

A shortwave is progged to move through the southern Plains Friday
night with a second wave pushing southeast through the central Plains
Sunday/Monday. Latest model solutions indicate the better low level
moisture return could with the late weekend wave and an increase in
additional shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Pretty complex forecast with a lot of moving parts during this
forecast period. Band of elevated storms will continue east into
NW AR and have inserted TEMPOs to the far NW AR sites to cover
potential. Removed thunder mention at the NE OK sites. Next we
have a cold front that will sweep south and east over the region
through the day tomorrow, with MVFR and even IFR cigs
overspreading the area behind the front. A period of MVFR cigs is
also possible at both KMLC and KFSM ahead of the front as well.
Finally, there is potential for afternoon storm development most
likely just to the east of KFYV and KFSM, but close enough for a
prob30 mention. South to southeast winds will swing around to the
east and then north behind the front and will be gusty at times.
Some improvement in cig heights is possible for a time during the
afternoon at some sites.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  49  61  43 /  20  20  10   0
FSM   81  54  66  49 /  40  50  30  10
MLC   81  51  66  47 /  20  20  20   0
BVO   61  45  59  39 /  30  40  10   0
FYV   74  48  61  40 /  40  50  20  10
BYV   68  47  58  43 /  70  60  30  10
MKO   77  50  63  44 /  20  20  20  10
MIO   61  46  59  40 /  50  50  20   0
F10   77  49  63  44 /  20  20  10   0
HHW   85  58  69  52 /  20  50  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
512 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-052215-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
512 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mid to Late Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop early this evening along the
dryline to the west of the area that may then move east into
eastern Oklahoma during the mid to late evening hours. Additional
thunderstorms will likely develop during the late evening and
overnight primarily across parts of northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas in response to the low level jet. Both the
dryline storms and low level jet storms will pose a threat for
severe hail, with locally damaging wind potential primarily with
dryline storms.

South winds will continue to gust up to 30 miles an hour at times
this evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered storms are expected to redevelop by late Tuesday
afternoon across parts of northwest Arkansas into far southeast
Oklahoma along an advancing cold front. These storms will carry an
elevated severe threat, with large hail and locally damaging wind
the main hazards. The storms are expected to move quickly east of
the forecast area by early to mid evening. Some storms may
develop behind the front, possibly as far north as northeast
Oklahoma, during the day Tuesday, but these storms will carry a
very limited severe threat.

Storms may develop on the cool side of the front Wednesday across
far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. These storms
may carry a limited large hail risk. After a period of quiet
weather from Wednesday night through Friday, additional
thunderstorm chances return by the weekend with another
disturbance moving into the Plains.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1138 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

OKZ055-056-050515-
Nowata OK-Washington OK-
1138 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1137 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Wann, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
South Coffeyville...              Lenapah...
Wann...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3694 9543 3676 9543 3685 9590 3700 9589
      3700 9544
TIME...MOT...LOC 0437Z 272DEG 43KT 3694 9580

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1209 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

OKZ056>058-050545-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-Nowata OK-
1209 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CRAIG...WESTERN OTTAWA
AND NORTHEASTERN NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...

At 1209 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 8 miles east of South Coffeyville to 7 miles west
of Bluejacket. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and dime to penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairland...                       South Coffeyville...
Welch...                          Delaware...
Bluejacket...                     Lenapah...
Narcissa...                       Hollow...
Pyramid Corners...                Centralia...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 299 and 303.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3674 9485 3672 9563 3699 9567 3700 9497
TIME...MOT...LOC 0509Z 273DEG 26KT 3696 9548 3679 9520

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

OKZ056>058-061-063-050615-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Nowata OK-
1235 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN ROGERS...
NORTHERN DELAWARE...OTTAWA AND EASTERN NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM
CDT...

At 1234 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles west of Welch to near Afton. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Vinita...
Baxter Springs...                 Nowata...
Grove...                          Commerce...
Chelsea...                        Fairland...
Afton...                          Quapaw...
Welch...                          Bernice...
Bluejacket...                     Wyandotte...
Big Cabin...                      Treece...
New Alluwe...                     Honey Creek State Park...
Bernice State Park...             Watova...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 273 and 324.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9462 3658 9462 3651 9521 3651 9569
      3700 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 0534Z 272DEG 34KT 3689 9516 3668 9497

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
101 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

OKZ057-058-062-063-050645-
Craig OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Mayes OK-
101 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN OTTAWA AND NORTHERN MAYES COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM
CDT...

At 100 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles west of Narcissa to 3 miles north of
Cleora to 3 miles southeast of Big Cabin. Movement was east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and dime to nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Vinita...
Jay...                            Grove...
Fairland...                       Afton...
Langley...                        Adair...
Bernice...                        Ketchum...
Spavinaw...                       Bluejacket...
Wyandotte...                      Disney...
Big Cabin...                      Pensacola...
Honey Creek State Park...         Cherokee State Park...
Bernice State Park...             Cleora...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 262 and 305.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3680 9462 3650 9462 3636 9460 3640 9544
      3651 9535 3651 9533 3654 9533 3686 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 290DEG 31KT 3681 9497 3664 9499 3652 9517

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
132 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

ARZ001-OKZ058-063-050715-
Benton AR-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
132 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BENTON...CENTRAL
DELAWARE AND SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES THROUGH 215 AM CDT...

At 132 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 7 miles northeast of Grove to 3 miles southwest
of Jay. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bella Vista...                    Siloam Springs...
Jay...                            Grove...
Gentry...                         Gravette...
Decatur...                        Springtown...
Maysville...                      Honey Creek State Park...
Hiwasse...                        Chloeta...
Dodge...                          Cayuga...
Lake Eucha State Park...          Zena...
Cherokee City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 9462 3650 9462 3650 9425 3619 9448
      3642 9500 3677 9468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0632Z 287DEG 24KT 3666 9466 3640 9484

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
214 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

ARZ001-050745-
Benton AR-
214 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BENTON COUNTY THROUGH 245 AM
CDT...

At 214 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles northeast of Bella Vista to 3 miles
northwest of Highfill. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Springdale...                     Rogers...
Bentonville...                    Bella Vista...
Lowell...                         Pea Ridge...
Gentry...                         Cave Springs...
Highfill...                       Garfield...
Springtown...                     Northwest Arkansas Regional Air...
Hiwasse...                        Hobbs State Park...
War Eagle...                      Miller...
Centerton...                      Avoca...
Gateway...                        Beaver Lake...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 75 and 93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 9401 3621 9402 3621 9430 3627 9448
      3650 9432 3650 9387 3639 9387 3639 9388
      3638 9389 3637 9387 3623 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 293DEG 38KT 3650 9424 3632 9437

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH