Drought in Oklahoma, May 5 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
455 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 453 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Tuesday afternoon
  into the evening across southeast Oklahoma.

- Much cooler temperatures will arrive behind a cold front on
  Tuesday.

- Frost possible Thursday morning across northwest Oklahoma.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The primary feature of note and the driver of today's forecast is a
rather weak surface low across the Southern Plains. As of early this
morning, regional wind/pressure observations show that surface
cyclone to be very near Woodward/Gage at a minimum pressure of about
997 mb. Throughout the rest of the morning, pressure rises will
occur as the primary polar jet streak ejects into the Great Lakes.
This will cause the surface low to both weaken and arc
south/eastward throughout the day, through the OKC metro a little
after sunrise and along the spine of the Ouachitas by late
afternoon.

What does that synoptic-scale analysis tell us? Mostly, it tells us
a rather strong cold front (at least for the month of May) will be
moving through. The front and areas behind it will be accompanied by
thick cloud cover and some drizzle during the daytime, with
temperatures struggling to get out of the 50s in northern Oklahoma.
High temperatures will rise with southeastward extent in proportion
to how much of daylight is spent south of the frontal boundary,
reaching into the mid-80s in southern Oklahoma and western north
Texas.

Storms are expected to develop along the frontal boundary this
afternoon from north Texas into Arkansas. It looks like most or all
of our area will be too far northwest to see those storms, but
Bryan/Atoka and perhaps adjacent counties to the northwest will have
the best chance to see convection initiation overhead. The
environment will be moderately unstable, but veered surface winds
should lead to messy shear profiles. Combined with frontal forcing
being parallel to storm motion, this looks like a recipe for upscale
growth of updrafts.

Low rain chances will move into northwest Oklahoma late tonight as a
band of upslope/postfrontal rain traverses southward down the lee of
the Rockies. Low-level saturation never really looks like it is
achieved in the model guidance, so expect any overnight precip
totals in the region to be light.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The postfrontal regime continues into tomorrow with the surface
front reaching well into central Texas. Despite that and
lingering east/northeast winds, guidance depicts breaks in cloud
cover developing and a decent amount of insolation in western
north Texas and southern Oklahoma. That will allow temperatures to
reach into the 70s in the region - cooler than we have seen the
last several days, but not much of a cooldown. By contrast, thick
stratus will hold on north of I-40 and once again leave
temperatures in the 50s during the afternoon. Rain chances are
rather low and mostly confined to northwest Oklahoma nearest to
the upslope storm that will continue.

Cold temperatures will be a concern for agriculture/gardening
Thursday morning, as we have entered well inside of our growing
season. For the most part, low temperatures will be a byproduct of
how low dewpoints end up getting during the dry advection regime the
day prior. For most of us, temperatures will end up in the 40s -
cold enough to cause issues with sensitive vegetation, but not cold
enough for frost. However, northwest (and maybe north central)
Oklahoma will get into the mid-to-upper 30s. Sporadic frost issues
look like they could be in play here.

After all of that, Thursday's weather will be anticlimactic in
the most pleasant kind of way. The subtropical jet will depart,
clearing skies and decreasing winds. Sunny skies and highs near 70
will occur across the area.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

As quickly as the mini-cooldown arrived, it will be gone with the
subtropical jet's departure and we'll move back into a mini-heatwave
on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will push into the low-90s in
western north Texas on the former day and near 100 on the latter.
Precipitation chances will be minimal.

Following that, northwest flow gets introduced into the equation as
the subtropical ridge expands and dominates across the western half
of the country. It's still a little early in the warm season for
northwest flow to be automatically associated with convection off of
the high terrain to our northwest, but there's at least some signal
on global guidance being wrapped into our NBM/gridded forecast on
Sunday and Monday. That is decidedly not the case on Tuesday, as the
ridge deamplifies and migrates eastward. The signal on Tuesday would
suggest that record-breaking heat is within the distribution of
reasonable outcomes.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A cold front moving through will bring gusty north winds and MVFR
ceilings behind it. Low chances for showers and storms this
afternoon and evening across northern Oklahoma and southeastern
Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  47  64  43 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         70  46  69  43 /   0  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  84  51  73  47 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           61  40  55  36 /  20  30  20  30
Ponca City OK     61  45  59  39 /  20  30   0  10
Durant OK         88  56  71  51 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14