NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 13, 4:06 AM MST, 4 hours 54 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 13, 4:06 AM MST, 4 hours 54 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
406 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...An southern Sierras inland penetrating atmospheric
river event will bring moderate to heavy precipitation to much of
the region through Saturday. Another winter storm will impact the
region Sunday into Tuesday as the active pattern continues.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Sunday)...One of the most significant
mountain snow storms of the season is on tap for the short term
forecast period...with many locations measuring in feet or even a
yard stick by sunset on Saturday. Early morning upper air and
satellite analysis indicates a large upper level low approaching
the Pacific Coast, with a pronounced associated atmospheric river.
Radar imagery shows heavy precipitation across much of northern
and central California.
Inland penetrating atmospheric river events around the southern
Sierras are one of the modes for portions of Utah to see heavy
precipitation and strong winds. Looking at the EFI (EPS based
Extreme Forecast Index) tells the story, with high anomalies for
QPF, snow and winds across portions of the CWA. NAEFS IVT
anomalies with the this system approaching the 99 to 99.5th
percentile.
By later this morning, precipitation will begin to move into
southwestern Utah. Temperatures may be cold enough for rain/snow
mix or even light snow at onset for lower Washington County but
any snow will quickly change to rain by early afternoon.
Precipitation will continue to spread north and east with time
through the afternoon as the upper level trough continues to shift
eastward.
For the Wasatch Front, Cache Valley, Ogden Valley, Heber Valley
and Morgan Valley, the best chance for snow will be with this
initial portion of the storm. It will be no surprise to anyone
that it the northern valleys are quite cold, with lows in the
teens to single digits early this morning. As southwest flow ahead
of this storm builds into the area, modest warm air advection
will begin. Snow will gradually mix with and then change to rain
for valley floors this afternoon, with snow levels rising to
around 5500 feet by midnight or so. Precipitation will build into
northern Utah between 16-19Z, increasing in intensity through the
afternoon.
Normally, the Salt Lake Valley is largely shadowed in southwest
flow events, but CAMS are consistently showing a case with
precipitation spilling over the Traverse Range into southern and
western Salt Lake County, coincident with snow levels low enough
for accumulating snow. Thus, issued a winter weather advisory for
the Salt Lake Valley, mainly for the benches and southern and
western portions. Note though, that an earlier change to rain
could result in little snow accumulation for most locations,
whereas a more entrenched, stubborn cold pool and a longer period
of snow would allow for heavier snow accumulations.
As is typical with this type of atmospheric river event, strong,
gusty winds are likely across western Utah including southwestern,
west central Utah, the Sevier Valley and the Tooele and Rush
Valleys. A few gusts to 60 mph cannot be ruled out for normally
wind prone locations of western Utah, including I-80 near Lake
Point and the tip of the Stansburys. Add wind advisories to these
areas and continued the wind advisory for the Tooele and Rush
Valleys. Expect strong winds to continue overnight into early
Friday morning before abating.
A period of upper level diffluence will bring enhanced
precipitation rates this afternoon into tonight across much of the
area (including the previously mentioned areas). This will also
be the heaviest period of precipitation for the southern half of
the state...with the upper level diffluence coincident with marked
IVT anomalies from the southern Sierras inland penetrating
atmospheric river.
For the northern and central mountains, slopes that do well in
westerly to southwesterly flow will see very heavy precipitation
this afternoon into Friday. A change to northwesterly flow is
expected early Saturday morning, shifting this event into a more
typical northwest flow orographic event, with heavy snow
accumulations continuing for slopes that do well in northwest
flow.
Rain will change back to snow across northern Utah valleys early
Saturday morning, though accumulations look to remain under
advisory criteria. Precipitation will gradually end Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening as the upper level trough pulls
away from the area.
Kept the winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings as
issued by the previous shift, but added a winter weather advisory
for south central Utah (especially above 5000-5500 feet) with
substantial snow accumulations expected to impact US-89 north of
Kanab to Panguitch, Tropic and even Escalante. Will need to
monitor for potential for an upgrade for this location as south
central upslope regions can do quite well in this pattern. Also
added the Salt Lake Valley (per earlier). Will need to watch the
Tooele Valley, particularly for Tooele itself as this is a flow
pattern where they can also do well enough to reach advisory
amounts. As is the case for the Salt Lake Valley, Weber, Davis,
Cache and the Wasatch Back valleys below 6000 feet all depend on
the current forecast change to rain to see the forecast
accumulations. A quicker change, less snow, a slow change, more
snow.
For the northern mountains going into a typically very busy
holiday weekend, expect a broad 1 to 2 feet, with potentially as
high as 4+ feet for the upper Cottonwoods depending on the timing
of the shift to northwest flow. For those with backcountry plans
in any of Utah's mountains, please check in with the Utah
Avalanche Center (utahavalanchecenter.org) before heading out.
Stay safe!
.LONG TERM (After 00Z Sunday)...A fairly active weather pattern
will continue into the long term forecast period, with a series of
potential storms impacting mainly northern and central Utah.
However, neither of these storms will be associated with an
appreciable moisture plume, so while precipitation may result in
local impacts to travel, amounts are not expected to be
climatologically significant.
High pressure building into the area Saturday evening behind the
previous storm will result in dry and stable conditions. However,
these conditions are not expected to last as a progressive pattern
will start to bring moisture back into the area by Sunday. With
H7 warm advection developing, expect precipitation to begin
developing across northern Utah by late Sunday morning. A
generally broad and diffuse trough will then sag into the area on
Monday before another trough grazes northeast Utah and southwest
Wyoming on Tuesday.
Some uncertainty exists regarding precipitation type in the
valleys. Precipitation is likely to begin as snow, but rising snow
levels should bring a rain/snow mix from around Ogden southward
by Sunday evening. A transition to H7 cold advection will bring
lower snow levels, but the airmass looks to be borderline cold
enough for all snow. The airmass should continue trending cooler
by late Monday night, with increased likelihood for valleys to see
all snow. Overall, though, most valleys are expected to see very
minor snowfall, generally less than 2 inches, even at the 75th
percentile of the NBM. The northern Utah mountains have a 50-75%
chance of exceeding 6 inches snow, while across the central
mountains, the probability is less than 20%.
Greater model spread is noted from the middle of next week
onward. However, there appears to be enough consensus showing
another storm affecting at least northern and central Utah during
the Wednesday night through Thursday night timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...South winds are expected to increase by this
afternoon, with a 70% chance of reaching 30 mph/26 kt by 18z.
These strong winds are expected to continue through the evening
hours before decreasing, but remaining southerly, after 06z. CIGS
will gradually lower through the afternoon hours while
precipitation begins to develop in the vicinity. Due to shadowing
in strong southwesterly flow aloft, precipitation may be slow to
fill in at the terminal. Precipitation may begin as all snow or a
rain/snow mix before gradually transitioning to all rain
overnight. If all snow, MVFR to high-end IFR conditions will be
likely.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...South winds are expected to
increase across the area late morning or early afternoon and
continue into the evening hours. Precipitation will fill in
through the day, beginning across southwest Utah by mid/late
morning, then across northern and central Utah this afternoon.
Widespread rain and snow in the valleys and all snow at the higher
elevations (~above 6000ft) will bring low CIGS and mountain
obscurations. Areas that see snow will likely see MVFR to high-end
IFR conditions.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 AM MST Friday for
UTZ102-115-122.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 11 PM MST this
evening for UTZ103>105-107.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM MST
Saturday for UTZ108.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 5 PM MST Friday for
UTZ109.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST
Saturday for UTZ110>113-117.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Friday for UTZ114-120.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM MST Friday for
UTZ119.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST Friday
for UTZ125.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon MST Friday for
UTZ126-127.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM MST
Friday for UTZ128.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 5 PM MST Friday for
WYZ021.
&&
Kruse/Cheng
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity