NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 13, 10:16 AM PST, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 13, 10:16 AM PST, 1 hour 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
1016 AM PST Thu Feb 13 2025
.UPDATE...Precipitation timing has been been close to on track
this morning, with snow starting within the last hour or so for
Portland. Precipitation type has been slightly off with snow
hanging on longer across the southern Willamette Valley when a
transition to freezing rain was expected by 15/16Z. Snow and
freezing rain are now being reported at KEUG. Made some
adjustments in the high temps around Eugene and adjusted the
precip type and amounts through this afternoon to account for
current trends. Expecting slightly more snow across the
Willamette Valley and into the Portland/Vancouver metro,
generally an additional half inch to inch possible which may
take a bit away from other precip types like sleet or freezing
rain. Still expecting snowy and icy conditions into tomorrow.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...Widespread snow, freezing rain/sleet, and rain are
expected to begin Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Also,
very cold overnight temperatures and breezy easterly winds are
expected. This will result in very hazardous conditions across
the forecast area through the end of this week. A pattern change
with slightly warmer temperatures and rain/snow is possible
starting Saturday and that trend looks to continue into the
middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday...Thursday through Friday
night...Strong easterly flow through the Columbia Gorge
continues, keeping temperatures cold and allowing for gusty east
winds near the Gorge, including the Portland metro area. Until
Thursday evening, expect easterly gusts in the Gorge up to 60
mph. The eastern Portland metro area could see gusts as high as
40-50 mph. The Cold Weather Advisories for the entire region
remain on track through late morning Thursday, as temperatures
will bottom out well into the 20s for all areas. Expect wind
chill values as low as 10 to 25 degrees. The Gorge and Upper
Hood River Valley will see even colder temperatures, with an
Extreme Cold Warning still expected. At those areas, expect
dangerously cold wind chill values as low as zero degrees.
As of 3 AM Thursday, precipitation is just now beginning to enter
Lane County, though the surface air is still a little too dry for
anything to reach the surface just yet. With such cold temperatures,
expect a mixture of snow, freezing rain, and sleet to begin within
the next hour, pushing northward and reaching the Portland metro area
by 8-10 am Thursday. Almost all guidance points towards precipitation
initially beginning as primarily snow, with mixed freezing rain,
gradually transitioning over to primarily freezing rain by midday
Thursday. There continues to be slight model disparity in timing
between high-res and global deterministic guidance regarding the
precipitation type that will be in place during the main frontal
passage. If temperatures stay cold enough that the precipitation will
be primarily snow when the main band of precipitation is passing
through the Willamette Valley (as global deterministic guidance
indicates), we can expect possibly 1-3 inches of snow up and down the
Willamette Valley and Columbia lowlands. This would then be followed
by around 0.10 inch of freezing rain accumulations. However, if
temperatures warm quick enough (HREF and NBM), then very little snow
accumulations can be expected in the lowlands, up to maybe half an
inch. This would then be followed by a much more significant freezing
rain threat, approaching somewhere closer to a quarter of an inch of
ice accumulations throughout Thursday. In both scenarios, both snow
and freezing rain will create hazardous conditions, just a matter of
how much of each.
Regardless of which scenario pans out, hazardous conditions can be
expected that will certainly impact the Thursday morning and evening
commute. With ice accumulations expected, power outages will be
possible (compounded by gusty winds near the Columbia River Gorge).
For more detailed information regarding timing and expected snow/ice
accumulations, please read the below section.
Heading into Thursday night, expect precipitation to continue, with
the primary precipitation type expected to be freezing rain. Latest
model guidance remains uncertain as to QPF values, with some early 6z
model runs indicating a second frontal system producing higher QPF
values near 0.5 inch in the central and southern parts of CWA, for
areas south of the Portland metro (not including). With freezing rain
and snow still possible Thursday night into Friday morning, expect
continued hazardous conditions until Friday midday at least. We will
continue to monitor the severity of possible winter weather impacts
associated with potentially higher QPF if this scenario comes to
fruition. /JLiu
Precipitation Timing:
High Confidence: Periods of freezing rain and/or snow will
impact the vast majority of northwest Oregon and southwest
Washington (aside from locations to the south of Newport on the
coast) beginning shortly before sunrise Thursday 2/13, with impacts
beginning Portland metro area and northward after 9-10am Thursday.
This will result in significant travel impacts during the rush hour
commute. Expect precipitation to begin as freezing rain for the
central Oregon Coast Range and southern Willamette Valley around 3-5
AM Thu, 2/13. Precipitation will likely begin as snow in the central
Willamette Valley and north Oregon Coast Range for a very brief
period of time around 6 AM Thu, 2/13 before quickly switching over to
freezing rain.
Precipitation will likely begin as snow for the northern
Willamette Valley and Portland/Vancouver metro around 9-10 AM
Thu, 2/13 before switching over to freezing rain in the early
afternoon, potentially mixing in with sleet at times. This has
us concerned that folks living in the Portland/Vancouver metro
will wake up before 9 AM, notice it is still dry out and head to
work, then have a very difficult time trying to commute back
home in the evening as there will likely be some snow and ice on
roads, resulting in hazardous travel conditions. For the Columbia
Gorge and Hood River County, expect just snow throughout This event,
beginning around 9-10 AM. Precipitation looks to start closer to 11am
Thu, 2/13 for the Willapa Hills, Lower Columbia and Cowlitz Valleys,
mixing in with freezing rain or sleet at times Thursday evening after
5 PM. For the coast, expecting mainly freezing rain in most spots
with moderate travel impacts, however surface temps may be a degree
or two above freezing in a few spots such as the Long Beach
Peninsula, Lincoln City, Depoe Bay, Waldport, Seal Rock, Yachats and
Florence. This would result in little to no travel impacts in these
locations, but the forecast in these particular locations is
especially tricky as forecast temperatures need to be spot on, to the
exact degree, to determine if precip will fall as
cold rain or as freezing rain with ice accumulations. Higher
confidence for below freezing temps and freezing rain from
Tillamook to Astoria where temps look to be slightly colder.
(-TK/JLiu)
Hazards and Storm-total amounts:
Ice Storm Warning:
For the Southern Willamette Valley, to include areas near
Eugene, Cottage Grove and Monroe. Significant icing expected. Snow
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to three
tenths of an inch.
For the Central Willamette Valley, to include areas near Salem,
Albany, Lincoln and Silverton. Significant icing expected. Snow
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to three
tenths of an inch.
For the Central Oregon Coast Range Lowlands, and Central Oregon
Coast Range. Significant icing expected. Significant icing expected.
Snow accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to three
tenths of an inch.
Winter Storm Warning:
For the North Oregon Coast Range, heavy mixed precipitation
expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches
and ice accumulations up to one quarter of an inch.
For the North Oregon Coast Range Lowlands, heavy mixed
precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to
two inches and ice accumulations up to one quarter of an inch.
For the Northern Willamette Valley, to include Portland Metro
Lowlands, Greater Vancouver Metro, and Portland West Hills and
Chehalem Mountain. Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total
snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice
accumulations between one tenth and two tenths of an inch. Winds
gusting as high as 45 mph. Also, the Outer Southeast Portland
Metro should expect heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total
snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations
between one tenth and two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as
high as 40 mph.
Winter Weather Advisory:
For the South Washington and North and Central Oregon Coast,to
include areas from Florence, OR through the Long Beach Peninsula
in Washington. Expect mixed precipitation. Total snow
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.
For the Western and Central Columbia River Gorge and Hood River
County, to include Hood River, Odell, Cascade Locks, Stevenson
and Carson. Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations around one tenth
of an inch. Ice accumulations will be limited to the western Gorge.
Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.
For the Cascades and Cascade Foothills, mixed precipitation
expected. Total snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches and ice
accumulations around a light glaze. Winds gusting as high
as 50 mph.
For the Willapa Hills and Adjacent River Valleys of Pacific and
Wahkiakum Counties, Lower Columbia River and Cowlitz River
Valleys, and South Washington Cascade Foothills. Mixed
precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch
and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch. /42/JLiu
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Drier on Saturday as a weak
transient ridge builds over the region. Will continue to see
southerly winds along the coast, becoming easterly inland. The
easterly flow will maintain cold conditions through most of the
weekend. Early Sunday another frontal system will near the region
with the potential for another round of precipitation. At this point,
there is a high probability that the precipitation will be rain with
snow in the Cascades. However, if the low center shifts further
south, could see wintery precipitation return including a mix of
freezing rain, low elevation snow and rain. Confidence is low in
regards to precipitation type, but general consensus is that the
precipitation would arrive early Saturday morning.
For those who were tired of the winter sun, you're in luck because
precipitation will be fairly persistent through mid-week. The system
that arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday is a warmer front which will
aid in heavier precipitation amounts. -Muessle
&&
.AVIATION...An ongoing winter storm continues to impact nearly all
of northwest OR and southwest WA this morning, with accumulating
snow, freezing rain, and sleet. This will be the trend
throughout the 18z TAF period of several waves of wintry
precipitation move from south to north over the area. In
addition, gusty east winds will continue in the Portland metro
with gusts upwards of 35 kt this morning at KPDX and upwards of
45 kt at KTTD. East winds weaken slightly this evening and then
more substantially tonight, especially after 07-09z Friday.
The most prominent forecast challenge at hand is determining exact
precipitation type hour-by-hour at each TAF site, which is nearly
impossible to do in this scenario, especially since there will be
periods of time when snow is mixed with sleet or sleet is mixed
with freezing rain. Nevertheless, there is a warm front currently
moving northward over the KEUG area, which will reach into KSLE
towards 18-19z Thursday, then into KUAO towards 20z and KPDX,
KTTD, and KHIO towards 21-22z. Once this warm front lifts
overhead, snow will transition to either sleet, freezing rain, or
a mix of freezing rain and sleet. This will result on ice
accumulation on top of any snow that falls prior to the
precipitation type switchover.
The easiest TAF site to deal with right now is KONP, as surface
temperatures are around 0.5 to 1.0 degrees above freezing, just
warm enough for a cold rain rather than freezing rain. Therefore,
not expecting more wintry precipitation at KONP today or tonight.
It is a different story at KAST where snow has already begun, and
will likely switch over to freezing rain towards 22z Thursday when
the aforementioned warm front moves overhead.
PDX AND APPROACHES...The 18z TAF period will start off with
moderate snow and gusty east winds upwards of 35 kt, resulting in
blowing snow in addition to the ongoing falling snow. Expect snow
to transition over to sleet or a mix of sleet and freezing rain
towards 21-2130z Thursday, trending more towards freezing rain
late this evening. Total snow accumulations will likely reach
approximately one inch, with 0.1-0.2 inches of ice accumulation
falling on top of the snow that falls prior to the switchover from
snow to freezing rain and/or sleet. -TK
&&
.MARINE...Low pressure located at 40.3N, -130.3W will move
inland over Newport this evening. This low in combination with
weak ridging inland is promoting gusty easterly winds. In
general, winds are northeast to easterly at 20 to 25 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt. However, in the coastal gaps like around the
Columbia River Bar and Newport, gusts up to 35 kt are possible.
These winds are mostly going to be focused in the inner waters,
though buoys 46029 and 46050 may experience them periodically.
While these winds technically meet Gale Warning criteria, they
are not widespread nor consistent enough to issue. Therefore,
have maintained a high end Small Craft Advisory for all the
waters. Seas will continue to stay steadily at 5 to 6 ft at 15
seconds increasing to 8 to 10 ft at 15 seconds by Thu afternoon.
The big piece of the forecast is going to be the wind wave
directional shifts as the easterly flow will be forcing a higher
wind wave combating the westerly background swell.
After this system shifts inland, several other low pressure
systems and fronts will move over the waters, the next on Friday,
and another on Sunday. Will see a brief lull in seas on Saturday,
but will be short lived. Late Sunday into Monday behind a more
robust front, seas will build to 12 to 14 ft at 15 seconds.
Southerly winds with gusts up to 25 kt expected. -Muessle
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ101>108-
113>118-123>128.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ101>103.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for ORZ104-106-
109>113.
Ice Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ105-107-114>118.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Friday for ORZ108.
Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST Friday for ORZ109>112.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ111.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ112.
Extreme Cold Warning until noon PST today for ORZ119>122.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for ORZ119>128.
Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST Friday for ORZ119>122.
WA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST today for WAZ201>204-208-
211.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for WAZ201.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for WAZ205>207.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Friday for WAZ202>204-208.
Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST Friday for WAZ205>207.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for WAZ207.
Extreme Cold Warning until noon PST today for WAZ209-210.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for WAZ209>211.
Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST Friday for WAZ209-210.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for PZZ251>253-
271>273.
&&
www.weather.gov/portland
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