A developing low pressure system and approaching trough resulted in gusty winds and elevated virga showers across the region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A developing low pressure system and approaching trough resulted in gusty winds and elevated virga showers across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 6, 5:31 PM CST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
531 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
- Strong southwesterly winds and dangerous fire weather
conditions will persist through early this evening across the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Van Horn Corridor, Marfa
Plateau, and northwestern Permian Basin.
- Gusty winds continue for much of the region on Friday.
Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected again for much of
southwest Texas, including the Big Bend, Marfa Plateau, Davis
Mountains, and Van Horn Corridor.
- Cooler temperatures and lighter winds this weekend, then warmer
temperatures and stronger winds next week. Magnitude of fire,
high wind, and blowing dust risk not yet clear owing to
uncertainty in strength and speed of the next storm system.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
High cloud coverage will persist tonight, which (along with
continued light-to-moderate southwesterly winds) will inhibit
effective radiational cooling. This will keep low temperatures
Friday morning in the 40s and low 50s for much of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico.
Gusty westerly winds once again develop tomorrow afternoon as the
upper-level weather system begins to move over the region,
especially for the mountains and locations south and west of the
Pecos River (these locations will be more aligned with the jet
streak aloft). The highest winds will be in the Guadalupe/Delaware
Mountains down into the surrounding plains. As a result, the High
Wind Warning for the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains has been extended
through midnight Friday, and a Wind Advisory has been issued for
tomorrow afternoon in Culberson and Eddy counties. Farther south,
the heightened winds coupled with continued extremely dry conditions
will result in increasing fire weather concerns through tomorrow
afternoon. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details on
that. Otherwise, a weak cold front Friday morning will help keep
temperatures a bit lower Friday afternoon, with highs topping out in
the 70s for most (80s closer to the Rio Grande).
Another front Friday night into Saturday, coupled with clearer
skies, will keep minimum temperatures quite a bit lower Saturday
morning, especially in southeast New Mexico and the Northern Permian
Basin. Lows in these locations will be in the 30s and low 40s.
Further south, highs in the mid-to-upper 40s will be more
commonplace. By the end of the short-term period moving into the
long term, some low rain chances (10-30%) will return to the far
northern Permian Basin.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
The next upper level storm system will move across eastern New
Mexico and west Texas on Saturday. Wrap-around moisture will bring
mainly a low chance (20-40%) of rain across the Guadalupe
Mountains, the southeast New Mexico Plains, and the northern
Permian Basin on Saturday. Temperatures could be cold enough for a
light rain-snow mix in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains on Saturday, but currently expect no accumulation or
impacts. A tightening surface pressure gradient along the base of
the low pressure system will bring increased westerly winds to
the region, especially over areas along and west of the Pecos
River Saturday afternoon. A cold front will push through the
region Saturday night, with northwesterly to northerly winds
persisting into Sunday. Temperatures will trend cooler this
weekend with the frontal passage.
Mid-level ridging will build over our forecast area on Monday,
before flow aloft transitions southwesterly Monday night into
Tuesday ahead of the next trough that will be deepening over the
southwestern U.S. Dry weather conditions and warmer temperatures
are expected early next week with this pattern. The upper-level
trough axis will move across our forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Breezy to windy conditions are anticipated
Tuesday across the northwest Basin, the southeast New Mexico
Plains, and the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. We may have to
monitor for high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains Tuesday. Windy
conditions will develop over much of the forecast area by
Wednesday as the surface low pressure system passes to our north
and northeast. Patchy to areas of blowing dust may be possible
over our area on Wednesday, with high wind products potentially
becoming necessary over the mountains, if not into portions of our
plains areas. Breezy to windy conditions may persist into
Thursday. Temperatures otherwise look to remain above normal
through the middle to latter part of the week with continued dry
weather conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Winds are generally
southwesterly to westerly throughout most of this TAF period, with
brief gusts likely at all sites. Sustained winds are expected to be
10 to 15 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 49 76 40 56 / 0 0 20 10
Carlsbad 46 71 37 56 / 0 0 10 30
Dryden 54 86 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 50 80 43 62 / 10 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 43 63 34 50 / 0 0 0 20
Hobbs 43 70 34 52 / 0 0 10 30
Marfa 42 73 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 50 74 40 58 / 0 0 10 10
Odessa 50 74 40 58 / 0 0 10 10
Wink 46 77 39 61 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
High Wind Warning until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Friday night
for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains.
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Eastern Culberson-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM CST Friday for Eastern
Culberson-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Friday for Central
Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Lower Brewster
County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway
54 Corridor.
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
of Eddy County.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for Central Lea-Eddy
County Plains-Northern Lea.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MST Friday for Eddy County
Plains.
&&
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...55The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A localized dry microburst under a passing line of elevated virga showers resulted in a 60 MPH wind gust at the Alpine-Casparis AWOS.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1242953.