As a strengthening low pressure system continued to move into the Upper Midwest, strong west winds overspread much of the southern Great Plains. A strong westerly jet streak behind this developing weather system aided these winds.
Every event with a place to put it; 32 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
As a strengthening low pressure system continued to move into the Upper Midwest, strong west winds overspread much of the southern Great Plains. A strong westerly jet streak behind this developing weather system aided these winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 4, 5:19 AM CST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
519 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 458 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025
- A few hundredths rainfall accumulation from showers early this morning
over parts of the central into eastern Permian Basin, then dry
with no precipitation in the forecast until this weekend.
- High confidence in wind gusts up to 45 mph areawide this morning through
early afternoon. Medium confidence in wind gusts up to 60 mph
or higher over higher elevations early this morning into mid
morning. Winds diminish rapidly by late afternoon into this
evening. A High Wind Warning remains in effect from this morning
through this evening.
- Cooler temperatures and lighter winds Wednesday, then increasing southerly
winds shifting to westerly Thursday into Friday with an
increase in fire weather, blowing dust, and high wind risk,
again followed by cooler temperature and lighter winds next
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 219 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025
While gusty winds have occurred over portions of the area
yesterday, it was the Van Horn Corridor into SE NM plains that
observed gusts 30 to 40 mph on the tail end of a 50 to 80 kt mid-
level jet streak extending into the TX PH and Great Plains, with
other areas having gusts that remained below 35 mph farther away
from the jet streak. Conditions have also not been as dry today as
previously forecast over central portions of the area: dew point
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s have built west into the
central Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau near a pre-frontal
trough/dryline and rain chances are also apparent in easternmost
Permian Basin where PoPs are in 10%-30% range early this morning
following brief rain showers at MAF around midnight and
thunderstorms over southeast Permian Basin early this morning.
Additionally, IR and Nighttime Fog satellite imagery show high
clouds streaming in from the southwest to northeast from Terrell
County into southeast Permian Basin, while this short-lived
increase in moisture is slowly shifting east. Overall the
extremely dry and windy conditions areawide have not yet
materialized, but a change is in store. A high wind event sets in
beginning this morning and dew point temperatures rapidly fall
into the teens even in easternmost regions owing to strong
westerly winds advecting in much drier air from the west. As this
occurs, skies also clear with passage of Pacific cold front and
associated synoptic subsidence, along with westerly winds increase
and shift to northwesterly over time.
Deterministic and ensemble models continue to show a 80 to 100
knot jet streak developing over central portions of the area from
Guadalupes into central and southern Permian Basin and Stockton
Plateau as the trough axis moves east of the area and the
aforementioned earlier jet streak moves farther north into the
Great Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing even before peak
heating is evident due to clearing skies from west to east this
morning, forecast soundings for this morning and afternoon
persisting in showing near dry adiabatic lapse rates in the lower
troposphere, and a mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes
early this morning in deterministic model 700 mb geopotential
height and vorticity. Additionally, 50 knot winds extend down to
850 mb. This efficient boundary layer mixing will again allow
higher wind speeds to mix down from aloft. 50 to 60 mph winds
early this morning over the Guadalupes and Davis Mountains begin
drop off but remain above 45 mph later this morning as wind gusts
up to 55 mph develop from mid afternoon through early afternoon
from the Lower Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau and
central/southern Permian Basin. These winds are expected to again
kick up dust since soils have been relatively dry and loose in the
last few weeks. Highest probability of blowing dust over the
western higher terrain and down adjacent foothills this morning,
with less widespread areas of blowing dust elsewhere. The jet
streak becomes more intense and digs farther south into the Big
Bend and Terrell County late this morning into early afternoon as
the high wind event comes to an end earlier than initially
forecast. Despite peak winds largely occurring before peak
heating, blended in higher speeds and gusts since NBM tends to
under perform when efficient boundary mixing is present. A 70%-90%
chance of wind gusts up to 60 mph over western higher terrain
earlier this morning and 40%-60% chance of wind gusts up to 60 mph
over Lower Trans Pecos later this morning are shown in LREF
ensemble probabilities, which are usually better at simulating
higher end wind events like today. Ensembles additionally show a
near 100% chance of wind gusts above 45 mph areawide today until
late afternoon when wind decrease from northwest to southeast, but
remaining elevated in the Guadalupes into late this evening. A
High Wind Warning remains in effect through this evening to
account for these high winds.
Highs today in the NBM continue to show lower to mid 70s on
leeward slopes and southeast of western higher terrain, with mid
to lower 60s, upper 50s to lower 60s from westernmost Eddy County
into the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains down to the Lower Trans
Pecos. This is similar to what deterministic and ensemble high-res
and coarse res models are showing, so went with NBM for highs.
CAA will be offset by westerly downsloping winds, yielding high
near average for early March. As winds decrease, they are forecast
to shift to northwesterly/northerly by this evening as a cold
front drops down from the south behind the short wave. Additional
CAA and decreasing winds aiding radiational cooling and drainage
flows tonight will allow lows to fall near average to a few
degrees below average over basins and foothills of Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains into northern SE NM plains and northwest Permian
Basin. This translates to lower 30s in aforementioned regions, mid
to upper 30s Upper Trans Pecos into most of Permian Basin, and
lower to mid 40s Rio Grande basins into Terrell County, eastern
Stockton Plateau, and southeast Permian Basin. High-res models are
showing cooler highs closer to upper 30s to lower 40s even over
regions farther south and east for the CWA, but are not too
different than the NBM. Therefore, went with NBM for lows. Dry air
with dew point temperatures in the teens to lower 20s and single
digits over the Marfa Plateau likely preclude any formation of low
clouds in the shallow cold airmass.
Wednesday, light northerly winds veer to southeasterly through
the day as highs still come out near to 5 degrees below average in
the NBM, translating to widespread mid to upper 60s, upper 60s to
lower lower 70s southwest of Pecos River for Stockton Plateau as
well as Guadalupe and Davis Mountain Foothills into Rio Grande
basins and Terrell County. There is a low (<10%) chance in
ensembles of highs exceeding 80F in the Big Bend while lower 80s
are present in NBM for highs in the Big Bend. Given past
observations showing tendency for highs in Big Bend to rise higher
than indicated in ensembles, stuck with NBM for highs Wednesday
as well for now. Winds then veer to southeast as weak ridging
briefly settles in and then moves off to the east, and as a
response to the approach of the next in a series of short waves.
This will keep high winds, areas of blowing dust, and fire weather
conditions in the forecast through the extended. More on the fire
and wind risk later this week in the long term and fire weather
discussions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025
An active and progressive mid to upper tropospheric pattern later
this week into early next week will result in alternating ridging
and troughing, with periods of calmer winds and cooler
temperatures and periods of stronger winds and warmer
temperatures, respectively. Wednesday night, lows 5 to 10 degrees
above average are forecast as southeasterly winds increase and
become more southerly/southwesterly and boundary layer mixing
limits radiational cooling. These increasing winds will be in
advance of another short wave trough apparent in deterministic and
ensemble models developing down from central California into
AZ/NM and W TX this weekend. Winds increase as the upper level
winds associated with this disturbance spread over the area.
However, at this time the short wave later this week is expected
to be weaker and feature less of a concentrated and strong jet
streak than the short waves associated with high wind events
earlier this week. Therefore, we have held off on issuing any wind
products for now and will leave that to later forecast shifts.
Blowing dust will again become a concern, only tapering off in
between storm systems, and highest confidence impacts again over
western higher terrain into adjacent foothills. Dew point
temperatures in the 20s or lower also will remain despite
southerly winds, so fire weather will again be a concern as
westerly winds increase above 20 mph, given increasingly dry fuels
areawide.
Highs near to above average in 70s and 80s, upper 60s Guadalupes
and lower 90s Big Bend in NBM as highs have trended up in recent
runs. Blended in higher speeds and gusts beginning Thursday
continuing into Saturday morning, as mostly clear skies, near dry
adiabatic lower tropospheric lapse rates, and wind speeds in the
mid troposphere of at least 50 knots are again indicated. Boundary
layer mixing from these gusty southwesterly/westerly winds keep
lows Thursday night at least 10 degrees above average, ranging
from mid 40s to mid 50s, upper 30s in usual cold spots. Gusty
westerly downsloping winds continue Friday in advance of another
Pacific cold front associated with the main trough passage. Models
are hinting at a mid-level jet streak with core speeds at least
50 knots again developing over portions of the area Friday, so
there is increasing confidence in gusty winds to at least 30 mph
for Friday, with higher gusts above 45 mph also again indicated
for higher elevations and surrounding foothills. These westerly
downsloping winds keep temperatures a few degrees above average
and balanced by CAA behind the Pacific cold front, yielding highs
Friday ranging from the 70s and 80s Rio Grande basins into Upper
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, and lower 60s to lower 70s Marfa
Plateau into SE NM plains.
Friday night lows ranging from lower 30s cooler spots such as
foothills of Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and northern Lea County
to mid 30s to lower 40s Upper Trans Pecos into Permian Basin and
mid to upper 40s Rio Grande basins into Terrell County are
indicated as a northwest to southeast gradient sets up with CAA
behind the Pacific cold front as winds back to northwesterly and
then northerly. NBM has been consistently showing that the coolest
highs as much as 10 degrees below average this week into next
weekend will be on Saturday, with highs not making it out of the
50s over western higher terrain into SE NM plains and most of
Permian Basin, and widespread 60s elsewhere with 70s confined to
along the Rio Grande. Winds remain gusty as models are showing a
mid-level jet streak at the base of the departing trough will
still be over the area into Saturday evening. Lift and moisture
aloft with the short wave has also been consistently generated
20%-30% PoPs across northern SE NM plains into northern Permian
Basin Saturday morning. Given highest PoPs occur Saturday morning
when temperatures in that region are forecast to be near or below
freezing, some of this may be in the form of a rain/snow or wintry
mix. However, accumulations remain uncertain as dry air near the
surface with dew point temperatures in the teens are forecast
during this time frame as well. As winds becoming light and remain
northerly Saturday night, lows falling near to below freezing
apart from Rio Grande basins into Stockton Plateau and eastern
Permian Basin are indicated. Ridging increases Sunday as highs
rise closer to average and in the 60s for most.
Southerly/southeasterly winds then increase Sunday night into
Monday and temperatures rebound to above average, with the next
round of short wave troughs approaching the area and maintaining
the alternating troughing and ridging air pattern. As with earlier
this week, these more active periods in-between ridging are again
likely to be accompanied by increased risk for fire weather and
blowing dust, since soils and fuels will stay dry from lack of
significant wetting rains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025
Strong westerly winds continue this morning. These winds are
expected to increase in strength to between 35 to 45 kts through
the afternoon. Periodic gusts to near 60 kts remain possible.
Blowing dust may cause impacts to terminals, mainly after sunrise,
with MVFR visibility likely. Brief periods of IFR visibility from
blowing dust may occur. Winds speeds begin to weaken this evening.
A light north wind develops by tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025
A Red Flag Warning is in effect this morning through this evening
for all of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Min RH below
critical 15%, strong westerly winds greater than 30 knots, and
mostly sunny skies will combine with ERCs in the 75th to 90th
percentile, yielding a favorable environment for rapid fire growth
and spread amidst critical fire weather conditions. An 80 to 100
knot mid-level jet will develop over the Guadalupes into Lower
Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and southern/central Permian Basin
this morning into early afternoon, with near dry adiabatic lapse
rates in the lower troposphere and 30 to 50 knot winds down to 850
mb, allowing for strong winds to mix down to the surface areawide
as the jet streak moves overhead. As the jet streak and
associated storm system move off to the east and an accompanying
surface cold front clears the area, fire weather conditions
decrease into Wednesday owing to much lighter winds and cooler
temperatures near to below average for this time of year.
Southeasterly/southerly winds increase and shift to
southwesterly/westerly Thursday into Friday in response to another
storm system moving into the area later this week. Min RH below
critical 15%, westerly winds above 20 knots, and poor overnight
recovery again combine to increase fire risk as fuel ERCs remain
in the 75th to 90th percentile. Following another cold front at
the end of this week into beginning of this weekend, fire risk
will decrease as near to below average temperatures, increased
moisture, and lighter winds settle in. Southeasterly/southerly
winds then increase later this weekend into the following week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 71 35 67 44 / 10 0 0 0
Carlsbad 70 35 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 75 46 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 70 41 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 58 38 65 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 68 32 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 60 33 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 70 36 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 70 38 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 72 36 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning to 7 PM
CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central
Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-
Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Central Lea-
Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
Northern Lea-Southern Lea.
Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening
for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...91Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
343 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0258 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 WSW Mcdonald Observat 30.65N 104.14W
03/04/2025 M60 MPH Jeff Davis TX Mesonet
Mesonet station WDPT2 Wolf Den Dmp.
0630 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Pine Springs 31.89N 104.81W
03/03/2025 M85 MPH Culberson TX Mesonet
0652 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 ENE Pine Springs 31.89N 104.80W
03/03/2025 M66 MPH Culberson TX Mesonet
Mesonet station PSGT2 Pinery.
1010 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 11 NNE Van Horn 31.18N 104.74W
03/03/2025 M64 MPH Culberson TX Mesonet
Mesonet station TWB49 11.2 NE Van Horn
(TWDB).
0119 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Castolon 29.15N 103.53W
03/04/2025 M63 MPH Brewster TX Mesonet
Mesonet station 123 1NW Castolon, BBNP Big
Bend NP/Brewster.
0230 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 12 ESE Halfway 32.47N 103.55W
03/03/2025 M61 MPH Lea NM Mesonet
Mesonet station FW9687 Eunice.
1208 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 W Whites City 32.18N 104.48W
03/04/2025 M70 MPH Eddy NM Mesonet
Carlsbad Caverns NP Mesonet.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
32 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A maximum wind gust of 74 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, Pine Springs National Park, near Guadalupe Pass.
A maximum wind gust of 72 MPH was recorded at the RAWS site, PSGT2 Pinery, in the Guadalupe Mountains.
A maximum wind gust of 60 MPH was recorded at the CWOP site, FW9693 Pyote.
A 67 MPH wind gust was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, 3WNW Fluvanna.
At the Texas Water Development Board site, TWB49 Royal Farms, a maximum wind gust of 62 MPH was recorded.
A maximum wind gust of 62 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, 1SW Seagraves.
A maximum wind gust of 61 MPH was recorded at the Fort Stockton ASOS.
A maximum wind gust of 59 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, 2NNE Seminole.
A maximum wind gust of 60 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, 1S Lamesa.
The Snyder Winston Field Airport ASOS station recorded a maximum wind gust of 58 MPH.
A maximum wind gust of 63 MPH was recorded at the Alpine-Casparis AWOS.
A maximum wind gust of 58 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, 20WSW Orla.
A maximum wind gust of 66 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, 2ESE Gail.
A maximum wind gust of 68 MPH was recorded at the Welch West Texas Mesonet site.
A 72 MPH wind gust was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site 3E Snyder.
A maximum wind gust of 61 MPH was recorded at the CWOP station FW9692 Pecos.
A maximum wind gust of 58 MPH was recorded at the Big Spring AWOS.
A maximum wind gust of 60 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site 5SW Saint Lawrence.
A maximum wind gust of 69 MPH at the West Texas Mesonet site 3 SSW Snyder.
A maximum wind gust of 59 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, 2WNW Tarzan.
A maximum wind gust of 64 MPH was recorded at the Lamesa AWOS.
A maximum wind gust of 63 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, 5NW Colorado City.
A maximum wind gust of 63 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, 1SSE Lomax.
A maximum wind gust of 58 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, 2E Andrews.
A maximum wind gust of 60 MPH was recorded at the Texas Water Development Board station TWB47 Pecos County Line.
The Union Pacific Railroad observation station UR103, Colorado City, recorded a maximum wind gust of 59 MPH.
A maximum wind gust of 58 MPH was recorded at the Texas Water Development Board site, TWB76 John Dorris Station.
A 58 MPH wind gust was recorded at the Union Pacific Railroad observation site, UR144 Gozar.
A maximum wind gust of 60 MPH was recorded at the Midland International Air & Space Port ASOS.
An mPING report was received indicating a tree uprooted or snapped, or possible roof damage due to wind gusts estimated to have reached 70 mph. The property damage cost is an estimation.
The Gail RAWS site recorded a maximum wind gust of 59 MPH.
A maximum wind gust of 63 MPH was recorded at the RAWS site, WDPT2 Wolf Den DMP, in the Davis Mountains.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1242943, 1242950, 1242922, 1242946, 1242952, 1242938, 1242930, 1242939, 1242941, 1242925, 1242945, 1242944, 1242947, 1242940, 1242923, 1242926, 1242937, 1242929, 1242924, 1242935, 1242942, 1242933, 1242936, 1242949, 1242927, 1242932, 1242931, 1242928, 1242934, 1242892, 1242948, 1242951.