Wildfire in Texas, March 17, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
651 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Dry weather will prevail through the period with a nearly zonal
500 mb flow in place overhead. At the surface, high pressure along
the Texas Coast early this morning will slide eastward later
today into tonight. Highs today will be in the 80s, except near
the coast, which is well above normal. Lows tonight are expected
to be near normal ranging from the upper 50s across the northern
ranchlands to the low 60s across the Rio Grande Valley. Light and
variable winds this morning will increase later this morning into
the afternoon as the pressure gradient strengthens.

Tuesday is expected to be breezy to windy across the area,
especially near the coast, as the pressure gradient strengthens.
There is a medium to high chance (50 to 80 of wind gusts over 35
mph Tuesday afternoon. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed
across portions of Deep South Texas on Tuesday.

Finally, building seas along the Lower Texas Coast will result in a
Moderate Risk of rip currents tonight with a High Risk on Tuesday at
the local beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

The above-mentioned Wind Advisory on Tuesday may possibly extend
into Tuesday evening or night, if current model guidance is to be
believed. Fortunately, the approach and pre-dawn Wednesday morning
passage of a cold front through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley will weaken the pressure gradient and produce generally
breezy winds.

Overall, despite the Wednesday frontal passage, dry weather will
prevail across the BRO CWFA with a zonal mid-level flow in place
overhead. Although slightly below normal overnight lows Wednesday
night and daytime highs on Thursday are expected courtesy of the
frontal passage, well above normal temperatures are anticipated
throughout the long term forecast period with abundant dry air in
place gradually being moistened courtesy of a redeveloping and
persistent onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail across Deep
South Texas early this morning. VFR conditions will continue for
the next 24 hours. Southeasterly winds will increase and become
gusty in the later this morning into the afternoon hours. Moderate
to gusty winds may linger overnight, especially at MFE.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Buoy 42020 reported south winds around 10 knots gusting to near
12 knots at 3:10 CDT/8:10 UTC. Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail today as the pressure gradient slightly
increases. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be
possible on the Laguna Madre this afternoon with an uptick in the
winds. Seas will gradually build across the Gulf waters tonight
with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions develop. A Small
Advisory may be needed late tonight or early Tuesday morning on
the offshore Gulf waters (20-60 NM out) as winds increase. Strong
winds and building seas will prevail on Tuesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Small Craft Advisories will likely be
needed for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf waters on Tuesday.

(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Adverse marine conditions, likely requiring Small Craft Advisory
along the Lower Texas Coast, is anticipated Tuesday night in
advance of the Wednesday passage of a cold front. This front will
weaken the pressure gradient, resulting in improved winds and seas
on that day. However, Small Craft Advisory conditions will return
Wednesday night, but improve to Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
on Thursday. More moderate winds and seas will then develop and
persist for the remainder of the forecast period with surface high
pressure in control.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Fuels will remain cured and dry to critically dry across the
region through Tuesday. Very low relative humidity (17 yo 35
percent) will prevail across Deep South Texas again today.
However, the 20-foot winds are expected to between 15 to 20 mph,
with gusts up to 30 mph across much of the area this afternoon.
Therefore, A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect from 1 PM
today until 8 PM this evening. Relative humidity values begin to
recover later today into tonight as southeasterly flow increases.
The 20-foot level wind speeds are forecast to strengthen to 15 to
25 mph with higher gusts on Tuesday, especially near the coast.
Therefore, have issued a Fire Weather Watch for all of Deep South
Texas, except for the barrier islands, for Tuesday.

(Wednesday)
The pre-dawn passage of a cold front on Wednesday will produce
yet another surge of very dry air into Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley at that time, producing greatly lowered relative
humidity percentages. When combined with breezy winds at the
20-foot level and abundant cured to dry and critically fuels in
place, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement, at a minimum, will
likely be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  64  80  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               85  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 89  64  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         88  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      73  65  74  66 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  63  80  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for TXZ248>255-351-353>355.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...63-KC