Heat in Texas, June 12, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

An upper level trough will continue to move through the Southern
Plains during the duration of the short term forecast period. This
trough is expected to bring instability that could foster the
development of showers and thunderstorms. However, the chances of
rain should come to the end by the early part of tonight. Even then,
the chances of rain are low (less than 30%) for Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley.

After this afternoon, rain-free conditions are expected to persist
through the rest of the period. Allowing for temperatures to rise
again. As such, the high temperatures for the short term forecast
period are expected to be in the range of upper 90s to the lower
triple digits. The low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the
70s with some places reaching into the lower 80s. While mostly
posing a Heat Risk of mostly Moderate to Major, there are a couple
of places that could see Extreme as well. There could be a few areas
tomorrow that could need a Heat Advisory. However, the confidence is
not high enough at this time to issue one based on the timing at
this point.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Southeasterly flow is expected to persist over Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley allowing for the low-level moisture flow to
continue through the long term forecast period. With a mid-level
ridge in place for the early part of the long term forecast period,
rain chances are going to be rather low. However, the ridge is
expected to weaken a bit allowing for rain chances to develop mostly
along the coast with the afternoon seabreeze. Even then the rain
chances are low to medium (30-40%). These chances of rain are
expected to remain for the rest of the period.

Temperatures for the long term forecast period feature highs in the
range of the upper 90s to lower triple digits with low temperatures
mostly in the 70s. However a few places could get into the lower
80s. The Heat Risk for Saturday is mostly in the Major, with some
areas in the Moderate risk and even fewer locations in the Extreme
risk. From Sunday onward, the Heat Risk does trend downward through
the long term forecast period. The heat indices also generally
decrease through the period as well, but they do start close to Heat
Advisory levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are expected for the TAF cycle at all TAF
sites. Southeasterly winds are expected to persist through the
period as well, with gusty periods possible. These gusty periods
are likely to occur through the rest of the afternoon with winds
gusting up to 25 knots possible. MVFR ceilings could return
tonight as low-level clouds are expected to move over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Generally light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to
moderate seas will allow generally favorable conditions to continue
through the period. Rain chances remain very low (less than 10%)
through the weekend, however rain chances do increase back up to low
to medium (around 30 to 40%) around the start of the work week next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             82  95  81  95 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN               79  97  79  97 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 81 101  81 101 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         79 100  79 100 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  89  82  88 /  10  10  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  93  80  93 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64-Katz