Dewpoints of 70 degrees played a significant role in reducing convective inhibition across the Mid-South, as well as enhancing low-level CAPE for storm initiation. 0-6km shear was not particularly strong, generally less than 25 knots, but increased to around 35 kts with a passing shortwave.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Dewpoints of 70 degrees played a significant role in reducing convective inhibition across the Mid-South, as well as enhancing low-level CAPE for storm initiation. 0-6km shear was not particularly strong, generally less than 25 knots, but increased to around 35 kts with a passing shortwave. Storms produced damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 12, 1:38 PM CST, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 238 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon through late evening. There is a low chance (1/5) of a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the majority of the Mid-South. Damaging winds and flash flooding are the primary threats, but a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out through this evening. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday through this weekend. At this time, the chances for severe thunderstorms appears limited. - Hot and humid conditions will develop next week, with isolated to scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing. Heat indices will exceed 100 degrees by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Humidity has increased significantly across the Mid-South this afternoon, in the wake of a marine frontal passage. Dewpoints range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region, with temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s. A few diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms have popped up over the past hour, but have quickly dissipated due to the lack of upper level support. Aloft, a large upper low continues to churn near the ArkLaTex. This trough will eject a leading shortwave into the Lower Mississippi Valley through this evening. The current thermodynamic environment features a NW to SE gradient of 500 J/kg to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep low level lapse rates around 8.5 C/km. The favorable shear remains along and west of the Mississippi River, where up to 25 knots is currently available. However, this area still features -100 J/kg of CIN and low instability, keeping CI at bay. As we progress into the late afternoon/early evening hours, an area of convection near the ArkLaMiss will translate northeastward along the Delta and quickly advect in richer and deeper moisture. With ample instability and moderate shear in place by late afternoon, a Marginal Risk (1/5) of strong to severe thunderstorms is in place. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main threats, however, a brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out as the low level jet ramps up to around 30 knots this evening. The majority of convective activity will lift north of the Mid- South just after midnight. Friday will see additional showers and thunderstorms throughout the day as the main trough slowly lifts northeast across the region. Instability will be more limited tomorrow afternoon, due to ongoing showers and thunderstorms and subsequent cloud cover. As PWATs remain elevated to near the 99th percentile, the threat of heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will be in place. Additionally, with weak shear aloft, typical summertime microbursts will be more favorable with afternoon convective activity. Unsettled weather will persist into the weekend, as the stubborn upper trough slowly lifts out of the Tennessee Valley. Weak upper level northwest flow will build into the region in wake of the exiting trough. This will allow a few ridge-rider waves to translate SE through the Mid-South through early next week. Still too early to sort out storm mode, but an MCS or two could materialize in this pattern. Heat will increase across the region as we move into early next week. However, it looks to be short-lived as the ridge never fully establishes itself across the South. Another trough, embedded in the westerlies, will eject into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of next week. This will bring more unsettled weather and potentially more organized convection to the region. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Tough TAFs this issuance. Main concern is TSRA with the movement of a frontal boundary this evening. As we remain in this summertime pattern, CAMs continue to struggle with exact timing of said convection. TEMPOs and PROB30s were drawn in to best fit thunderstorm activity. Ceilings will also drop from current VFR to MVFR and pockets of IFR as convection moves through this evening and early afternoon tomorrow. South/southwest winds will be at around 6-10 kts, with a few gusts up to 20 kts tomorrow afternoon. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 High humidity and wetting rain chances will continue through the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
223 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
TNZ019-048-050-051-121945-
Crockett TN-Lauderdale TN-Dyer TN-Haywood TN-
223 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CROCKETT...
SOUTHEASTERN DYER...NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE AND NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...
At 222 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Forked Deer, or 11 miles east of Ripley, moving north at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Halls, Chestnut Bluff, Forked Deer, Unionville, Maury City,
Friendship, Gates, South Fork, Poplar Grove, Hawkinsville, Fowlkes,
Curve, Dog Hill, Bonicord, Double Bridges, Frog Jump, Stokes, Maury
Junction, Toulon, and Tigrett.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3594 8913 3593 8913 3569 8925 3573 8947
3601 8945
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 192DEG 13KT 3578 8934
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CJCSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
500 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
TNZ020-021-051-052-122215-
Carroll TN-Madison TN-Crockett TN-Gibson TN-
500 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT...
SOUTHEASTERN GIBSON...SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL AND NORTHERN MADISON
COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...
At 459 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Adair, or near Humboldt, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Humboldt, Milan, Fairview, Three Way, Adair, Carroll,
Medina, Gadsden, Gibson, Youngs Crossing, West, Gum Flat, Ledbetter,
Windy City, Lavinia, Gilmore, Mason Grove, Sitka, and Goat City.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3564 8894 3579 8903 3596 8873 3578 8860
3575 8861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 243DEG 18KT 3574 8892
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CJCSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
504 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
TNZ055-122230-
Decatur TN-
504 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN DECATUR COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM CDT...
At 504 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Sardis, or 17 miles north of Savannah, moving north at
20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Parsons, Decaturville, Montgomery, Thurman, Lick Skillet,
Wilkinstown, Haney, Pleasant Grove, Bath Springs, Mount Tabor,
Garrett, Beacon, Red Walnut, Largo, Dunbar, and Mount Lebanon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3540 8809 3539 8812 3543 8825 3559 8820
3561 8819 3564 8819 3561 8803 3558 8801
3557 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 194DEG 16KT 3546 8816
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CJCThe Memphis radar (KNQA), 127 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:54 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree down on power lines along Hwy 70 near Cedar Grove. Nickel sized hail also falling.
Several trees down in Cedar Grove.
A few trees down in the Oakland area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1276172, 1276174, 1276175.