Flash Flood and Hail in Nebraska, June 12, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
310 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms this
  evening west of a Bassett through Ogallala line, with wind
  and hail the primary concerns.

- A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Friday, mainly
  west of a Merriman through Callaway line, with wind and hail
  the primary concerns.

- A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday across all of
  western and north central Nebraska, with wind and hail the primary
  concerns.

- The upper level pattern and surface front remaining over the
  region will up a general pattern for near to above average
  temperatures and near daily shower and thunderstorm chances
  through at least Tuesday of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A surface trough from north central Colorado into western Cherry
County, as well as a stationary front across the northern Panhandle
east to just north of Cherry County will be a focus for
thunderstorms development late this afternoon/early evening. The
HREF mean MUCAPEs as high as 2000-2500 J/kg will be focused
along these boundaries, with 25-30kts of deep layer wind shear.
Storms, initially isolated will become scattered with clusters
of storms as they move east this evening. Models dissipate the
activity after midnight, east of Highway 83 into central
Nebraska. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for areas west of a
Bassett through Ogallala line this evening. The main threats are
large hail and damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.
A tornado is possible near the surface front in the Pine Ridge
area.

For Friday into Friday night, a backdoor cold front will bring winds
to the east and southeast during the afternoon. This will bring
cooler highs from the low to mid 80s, with upper 80s to near 90s in
the southwest. Dewpoints will be higher in the low to mid 60s. The
surface front will become nearly stationary over north central
Nebraska, as surface low pressure extends from central Wyoming
to along the Colorado Front Range. SBCAPEs from 2000 to 3500
J/kg by late afternoon across western Nebraska prior to any
convection. The increase in instability and higher deep layer
shear from 25 to 35kts, will be more favorable for severe
storms. Also, conditions appear favorable for potential MCS
development across the western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska,
as shown by some of the CAMs members. The main severe weather
concerns are damaging wind gusts, especially if the linear
convection is realized, as well as large hail. However, with the
enhanced southeasterly low level flow and higher dewpoints,
the potential for a tornado exists from the southeast panhandle
into southwest Nebraska. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
for areas mainly west of a Merriman through Callaway line, with
a Marginal Risk to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Warmer air returns Saturday, with surface winds becoming
southerly and the surface front lifting north into southwest
South Dakota through northeast Nebraska. High 90 to 95 return to
the area with dewpoints mostly in the mid 60s. A Marginal Risk
is in place across all of western and north central Nebraska and
much of surrounding region. An upper level disturbance will
cross the upper ridge axis Saturday night. Storms are expected
to be at least scattered, with 40-60 POPs across the entire
forecast area.

Slightly cooler behind this disturbance Sunday from the upper 80s to
around 90. Cooler in the 80s Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper
trough crosses the Northern and Central Plains. Chances of showers
and thunderstorms continue Sunday through Tuesday, with warmer and
drier conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through late tonight
across all of western and north central Nebraska. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and
linger well into this evening across portions of western and
north central Nebraska. Areas of MVFR and local IFR ceilings may
materialize Friday morning across northern Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
421 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-132130-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
421 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 /321 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across
portions of north central into western Nebraska. The threat is
generally west of a line from Ogallala to Butte. Damaging winds and
large hail are the main severe weather threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are again expected later Friday
across western and north central Nebraska. The main threat area is
along and west of a line from Merriman to Callaway. The main risks
will again be damaging winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation could be needed.

Taylor