A strong upper-level trough with an intense westerly jet streak at its base produced high winds across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and near Carlsbad Caverns National Park.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A strong upper-level trough with an intense westerly jet streak at its base produced high winds across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and near Carlsbad Caverns National Park.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 5:29 PM CST, 59 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
529 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025
- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this
morning to 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for Southeast New
Mexico, Culberson County, and the Davis Mountains and Foothills
- A High Wind Warning is in effect from noon MST /1 PM CST/ today
to midnight MST /1 AM CST/ tonight for the Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains
- <40% chance of rain and snow from Tuesday night into Friday
morning, less than 50% chance of total snow accumulations 1/2"
to 1", closer to 2" in higher elevations
- Highs in the 40s, 30s higher elevations, and lows in the 20s for
Wednesday through Friday, with coldest lows on Tuesday night and
coldest highs on Wednesday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025
An upper level trough is located near the Four Corners Region and
will quickly move into the Great Plains overnight. A cold front
associated with the trough also moves across the Permian Basin
overnight though the colder arctic air will be lagging by around 8
hours, arriving late morning to early afternoon as it dives south
along the lee of the Rocky Mountains. Therefore lows tonight will
be similar to this morning while highs are noticeably colder
behind the cold front. Clear skies all day Sunday allow
temperatures to climb slightly after frontal passage, before
plummeting overnight into the lower 20s Monday morning. There is
no moisture associated with the front on Sunday so wintry
precipitation is not in the short term forecast.
Hennig
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025
Upper air pattern displayed from deterministic and ensemble
models continues to indicate an upper low strengthening over
Eastern Canada this upcoming week, with geopotential heights and
thicknesses decreasing from Eastern Canada into the Upper Midwest
and Central Great Plains, while a positively tilted trough makes
landfall from S CA into W AZ and amplifies into the Gulf of
California. This upper air pattern will enable multiple
reinforcing cold front passages through this week, keeping
temperatures at least 10 degrees below average during the day and
up to 5 degrees below average each night, and even delivering a
chance of snow to portions of our area. High and low temperatures
Monday through Friday have trended down a few degrees in the last
few runs, and we are increasingly confident in there being a
colder than average week ahead.
Monday, highs behind Sunday's cold front will be mostly in the
40s, upper 30s in Guadalupes and 50s to lower 60s southwest of the
Davis Mountains into the Rio Grande basins. Northeasterly near
surface flow persists overnight as lows drop below freezing
everywhere except for near freezing in the Rio Grande basins, with
lows ranging from the teens in northern Lea County, basins of
Culberson County, and peaks of Davis Mountains and Lower Trans
Pecos, lower to mid 30s along the Rio Grande. We will continue to
see such low temperatures each night this upcoming week.
Tuesday, highs similar to Monday but more widespread 50s
southwest of the Davis Mountains and lower 60s confined to Rio
Grande are forecast. With isentropic upglide and large-scale
ascent in advance of the approaching upper system from the west as
well as another cold front moving in from the north, persistent
easterly upslope flow, and advection of boundary layer sufficient
for precipitation, there will be an increasing chance of
precipitation. Forecast soundings continue to show atmospheric
profiles cold enough for any precipitation to fall to be all snow.
Dry air near the surface from surface dew point temperatures in
the teens will be balanced by wet bulb temperatures near or below
freezing, temperatures less than -10 degrees Celsius in the
dendritic growth zone, and saturation from surface up to 700
mb-500 mb. A <40% chance of snow, rain in lower elevations and
farther east develops from SE NM plains into Presidio Valley and
Big Bend Tuesday night into Friday morning. Grids persist in
indicating Tuesday night will be the coldest night and Wednesday
the coldest day in the long term. Wednesday, highs at least 15 to
20 degrees below average widespread highs in the mid 30s to lower
40s, upper 20s to lower 30s in higher elevations are forecast as
CAA occurs behind Tuesday's cold front. With the passage of the
front early morning into midday Wednesday, again bumped up winds
areawide and even more in Guadalupe Pass to account for forecast
gap winds up to 50 mph.
Thursday into Friday, winds shift to more northerly. With less
humid easterly upslope flow, less low cloud cover allows highs to
recover into the 40s, 30s higher elevations, with Friday being
warmer than Thursday as heights and thicknesses begin to increase
over the southwestern CONUS. Deterministic models do not indicate
that troughing over the Gulf of California will close off into a
low, with the trough opening up and moving off to the east. If the
low does close off from the main flow, a longer duration of
wraparound wintry precipitation into Friday as well as highs
cooler than currently indicated for Friday are possible. Highest
precipitation chances areawide are forecast for Thursday afternoon
into evening when grids indicate PoPs near 40% southwest of Pecos
River and 35% elsewhere. PoPs have trended up for Tuesday into
early Friday and so there is a potential for some snow
accumulation of up to an inch and close to 2 inches in the
Guadalupes, although probability of this happening is below 50% at
this time, closer to 20% to 30% farther northeast of higher
elevations and around 40% in higher elevations. There is also
still uncertainty in timing, extent, and amounts of any snow and
rain. This will continue leading up to this event so stay tuned.
Precipitation chances taper off Friday morning into Friday
afternoon, with the rest of the long term being dry. Highs rebound
even more by next Saturday into 50s for most as northerly winds
persist. However, temperatures will remain below average for this
time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025
VFR conditions continue through the period. A cold front will
shift winds from the northwest after 06Z, ultimately veering
around from a more northerly to northeasterly direction after 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025
ERCs in the 50th-75th percentile are present in sparse fuels west
of the Pecos River. Near record high temperatures up to 20 to 25
degrees above average today are anticipated across SE NM into W TX
south to the Davis Mountains, and this along with gusty 20ft
winds up to 40 knots at higher elevations will combine with min RH
below critical 15% west of Pecos River to yield critical to
extreme fire weather conditions, with RFTI up to 7 over higher
terrain of Sacramento Foothills into Guadalupes and Davis
Mountains. A low-end RFW remains in effect into this evening for
today to account for this risk. Even with cooler temperatures
tomorrow with a cold front, poor overnight recovery, min RH below
critical 15% southwest of Pecos River, continued 20ft winds
gusting above 20 knots yield elevated fire weather conditions
tomorrow for these same regions, and an RFD may need to be issued
in the next shift depending on timing of gustiest winds associated
with passage of the cold front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 43 54 22 43 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 38 59 26 45 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 47 69 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 45 63 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 38 54 27 43 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 38 54 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 39 61 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 43 56 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 44 57 25 45 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 39 61 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for
Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
Corridor.
High Wind Warning until 1 AM CST /midnight MST/ Sunday for
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains.
NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
High Wind Warning until midnight MST tonight for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...10The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
West Texas Mesonet station Guadalupe Mountains National Park reported a maximum wind gust of 72 mph near Guadalupe Pass.
RAWS station GDBT2, The Bowl, reported a maximum wind gust of 86 mph in the Guadalupe Mountains.
RAWS station PSGT2 Pinery reported a maximum wind gust of 63 mph near Guadalupe Pass.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1222596, 1222600, 1234151.