A large upper level trough was approaching Kansas from the Intermountain west. A surface high extended from Canada to the Plains and Midwest.
Every event with a place to put it; 11 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
A large upper level trough was approaching Kansas from the Intermountain west. A surface high extended from Canada to the Plains and Midwest. Light freezing drizzle started moving across north central Kansas during the morning hours of January 4th with enhanced lift over the area. Freezing drizzle and freezing rain continued across north central Kansas through much of the day on January 4th with temperatures generally in the teens and 20s. This resulted in slick roads and hazardous travel. The changeover to snow occurred in the mid to late evening hours. Northerly winds increased during the evening of the 4th and into the 5th with gusts ranging from 25 to 35 MPH. The at times heavy snow across the eastern half of the area along with the gusty winds resulted in near zero visibility to whiteout conditions. The winds were driven by a pressure gradient from a strong surface high over the North Dakota/Canada border area and a strong surface low over central Oklahoma. The upper level low pressure system passed from southern Kansas to Missouri on Sunday January 5th. Snow continued across the area until around early evening on January 5th with high temperatures mostly in the low to mid-teens. Wind speeds across the area started gradually decreasing late in the afternoon into the evening.
North central Kansas received more/heavier snow than areas further north due to being closer to the upper low to the south. All highways, as well as Interstate 70, across the east-northeast half of Kansas were closed. The hardest hit counties of north central Kansas were Jewell, Osborne, and Mitchell. All 3 of these counties had blizzard conditions with winds gusting to around 35 mph and white-out conditions. Snow amounts in these counties ranged from 6 to 16 inches. Phillips County was the least impacted county in north central Kansas with snow amounts ranging from 1 to 4 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 6:18 AM CST, 2 hours 42 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
618 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2025
...Aviation Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- BY FAR the paramount issue of the entire 7-day forecast is the
impending/multi-faceted winter storm this weekend. Freezing
drizzle/light freezing rain will be the main issue today, with
the vast majority of accumulating snow not starting until
overnight into Sunday daytime.
- Our entire 30-county forecast area (CWA) is under either a
Winter Storm Warning or Winter Weather Advisory...officially
from 9 AM today through 6 PM Sunday. Some of our south-
southeastern-most counties where snow will be heaviest/winds
strongest MAY NEED CONSIDERED for a Blizzard Warning upgrade
(especially if winds trend any stronger).
- Once snow moves out Sunday afternoon-evening, our first round
of truly/bitterly-cold air this winter takes center stage,
with wind chill readings expected to bottom out -10 to -20
most areas Sunday night-Monday AM, and at least -10 to -15
most areas the following two nights (through Wed AM). We may
need to consider our first-ever Cold Weather Advisory (this
new product will replace the since-retired Wind Chill
Advisory).
- Fortunately, precipitation-wise the remainder of the 7-day
forecast beyond this weekend's winter storm remains dry at
this time, with a gradual warming trend Wed-Fri (albeit still
below normal/average).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 544 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2025
-- UP FRONT "ADMIN NOTES:
Wow, what an interesting/complex storm system to be tossed into
the "forecast seat" for following 10 days off duty! Apologies
for the late issuance this morning, and will try to focus more
on the main points than the "finer details". Will divide this
discussion up into 4 main sections: 1) current/recent weather
situation...2) this weekend's winter storm...3) The cold
temps/wind chills that follow Sunday night-Wed AM...4) The
overall-quieter/slightly warmer weather Wed-Fri.
-- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 5 AM:
For the majority of our CWA, this has been a very uneventful
night/early morning, with only widespread clouds and easterly
breezes of mainly 10-15 MPH. However, our extreme western
counties (mainly Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) have likely experienced
at least periodic light freezing drizzle overnight based on
limited ground-truth from web cams and NDOT road reports.
Morning low temps are on track to bottom out mainly 14-23
degrees (coldest north/warmest south). In the big picture of the
mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite/short term model data
clearly depict our main player being a large-scale trough
gradually approaching our region from the Intermountain west.
-- THIS WEEKEND'S MULTI-FACETED WINTER STORM:
- The latest snow/ice forecast:
Although our total precip (QPF) and snowfall forecast is largely
based on a multi-model blend produced by WPC, those watching
deterministic models closely will note that our official
forecast fairly closely resembles the latest OOZ ECMWF solution.
If anything, the snow total forecast edged up slightly most
areas. However, we are still looking at a fairly sharp gradient,
ranging from "only" 3-5" most places near/north of I-80, to more
so 5-10" in most Nebraska counties south of I-80, to a more
widespread 7-13" in our KS counties...particularly the
Osborne/Mitchell County area, which could be looking at the
overall-biggest snow storm in at least 3-4 hours, and possibly
10-15 years!
As for icing potential, have nearly our entire CWA aimed into
the 0.05-0.12" range...enough to cause issues BEFORE the onset
of steadier falling snow.
- Warning/Advisory changes/decisions and future consideration:
Based on the slight uptick in expected snow totals, we now have
enough potential for 6+" in parts of Harlan/Furnas counties that
these were added to the Winter Storm Warning. Otherwise left
previously-issued configuration (Advisory north-Warning south)
intact.
Although it would obviously need coordinated with neighboring
offices (particularly TOP/ICT), a few of our far southeast
counties (especially Thayer/Jewell/Mitchell/Osborne) will at
least need to be considered for an "upgrade" to a Blizzard
Warning, as these areas not only will see the heaviest snow, but
also stand the best chance of seeing the strongest winds gusting
to around 35 MPH and likely reducing visibility to around 1/4
mile or less on a semi-regular basis. At least for now, we
continue to emphasize "near-blizzard conditions in the Winter
Storm Warning statement/graphics.
As for the "start time" (9 AM today) and "end time" (6 PM
Sunday) of the current Warning/Advisory, as is often the case
the 9 AM start time will surely prove to be plenty early for
especially the northeast half of our CWA where the initial
onset of freezing drizzle/freezing rain will be last to occur
(but should kick in at some point today). The 6 PM Sunday end
time should cut it for MOST areas, but perhaps not our far
south-southeast which could need extended a few more hours into
Sunday evening as the system could be a bit slower to exit.
- General breakdown of expectations:
- Today daytime:
Although it will take several hours to fully envelope most of
our CWA, steady light freezing drizzle/freezing rain will
gradually develop over the area as the day wears on, arriving
first to southern/western counties and later to northern/eastern
counties as low-level saturation gradually deepens. There MIGHT
be some limited/minor snowfall mixed in today s well, but with
mid-level saturation lacking, freezing drizzle/rain will surely
be the primary issue through the daylight hours. Temps today
will rise very little from current values, ranging from teens
north to low-mid 20s far south.
- This evening-overnight:
Although this will also take its time to occur, freezing
drizzle/rain will GRADUALLY switch over to steadier accumulating
snow from north-to-south, probably not really getting going in
our southern/KS zones until post-midnight. Low temps tonight
mainly in the 7-13 range.
- Sunday daytime-early evening:
This will be the MAIN time frame of concern for impactful
snow/blowing snow, as the parent upper level low pressure system
crosses southern KS into MO from west-to-east. Although the main
surface low will remain well to our south from northern OK into
far southern MO, there will still be enough of a pressure
gradient to drive several hours of sustained northerly winds
15-25 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH (overall strongest south especially
KS/overall weakest in our north). While actual FALLING snow
should end between 3-6 PM in most of our CWA, latest models
suggest some snow could linger until closer to 9 PM in our far
southeast zones. High temps during the day fairly uniform,
mainly in the 12-15 range.
-- THE POST-STORM COLD/WIND CHILL CONCERNS:
Although just how cold temps/wind chills ultimately get will
depend on how efficient skies clear Sunday night in the wake of
the departing storm, we are currently calling for low temps Mon
AM around -5, with widespread wind chills of -10 to -20. At some
point we may have to consider Cold Weather Advisory issuance,
but first things first.
It remains quite cold (even by January norms) through the early
part of next week, with Monday highs mainly only teens, Monday
night lows a few degrees either side of zero, and Tuesday highs
again mainly teens, and finally lows near-to-slightly sub-zero
Tues night. Both Mon night-Tues AM and Tues night-Wed AM could
easily have wind chills -10 to -15, but this might technically
not quite reach Advisory criteria.
-- WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY IN BRIEF:
Temperature-wise, although it will depend heavily on how much
snow is on the ground, we are still aiming for a gradual, modest
warm-up, with highs Wed mainly in the 20s, Thursday mid 20s to
low 30s, and Friday upper 20s-low 30s.
As for precipitation/snow chances, at least for now our forecast
remains void of anything. However, the latest runs of the
ECMWF/GFS at least hint that some low-end chances for light
snow/flurries may eventually need considered for mainly Thurs
evening-night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
This will be an overall-poor aviation period, with ceiling
lowering from at least MVFR to at least IFR over time, and
visibility during especially the latter half deteriorating to at
least MVFR/IFR in light freezing drizzle and eventually snow.
Winds will also be on a gradual increase, with gusts commonly
20-25KT during especially the latter half. More details follow.
- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation trends:
The overall "best" conditions will be right away these first 4-9
hours or so, with ceiling mainly MVFR (high-end IFR possible
especially KEAR) and visibility still VFR. However, anytime
after roughly 16Z...and especially after 21Z...things will start
going downhill, with an expected onset of light freezing
drizzle/light fog reducing visibility to at least MVFR. By mid-
late afternoon, ceiling will also lower to at least IFR range.
Finally, during the second half of the period roughly 03Z
onward...expect freezing drizzle to switch over to steady light
snow with visibility mainly IFR with brief/occasional LIFR not
out of the question. As for actual precipitation accumulation
during this period, there could be a solid light glaze of ice
mainly this afternoon-evening from roughly 0.05-0.10" freezing
drizzle/freezing rain accumulation, followed by roughly 3" of
snowfall later this evening-overnight (and snow persisting
beyond this valid period).
- Winds:
Although not truly strong by January standards, moderately-
breezy conditions will prevail throughout the period, but
particularly late this afternoon onward when sustained speeds of
15-20KT/gusts 20-25KT will be common. Direction will start out
easterly today, but gradually swing around to more northerly
with time this evening-overnight.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for NEZ075>077-
082>087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>074.
KS...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...PfannkuchHazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Hastings NE 436 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 051045- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 436 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Our entire 30-county forecast area will be under either a Winter Storm Warning or Winter Weather Advisory today through tonight, due to the expectation of light freezing drizzle/freezing rain initially, then followed by snowfall that will vary widely in amounts from north to south. Please refer to the latest Warning/Advisory statements for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. On Sunday, our entire 30-county forecast area will remain under either a Winter Storm Warning or Winter Weather Advisory through 6 PM, due to continued accumulating snow and blowing snow. Please refer to the latest Warning/Advisory statements for more details. Once snow moves out of our entire area by Sunday evening, the main concern shifts to our first round of truly, bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills this winter. Late Sunday night into Monday morning, wind chill readings as cold as -10 to -20 degrees are likely across most of our area. Then, both Monday night into Tuesday morning, and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, wind chills of at least -10 to -15 degrees are likely. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of slick roads from freezing drizzle/freezing rain today into this evening, and also to report any measured snow amounts tonight into Sunday. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Pfannkuch
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 winter weather, 3 blizzard, 2 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Storm total amounts generally in the 1 to 4 inch range were reported across the county.
Storm total snow amounts generally in the 3 to 6 inch range, combined with northerly winds gusting around 35 MPH, resulted in near-zero visibility and hazardous conditions across the county.
Storm total snow amounts generally in the 4 to 10 inch range, combined with northerly winds gusting around 35 MPH, resulted in near-zero visibility and hazardous conditions across the county.
Storm total snow amounts generally in the 6 to 14 inch range, combined with northerly winds gusting around 35 MPH, resulted in white-out conditions across the county.
Storm total snow amounts were generally in the 6 to 15 inch range across the southeastern portions of the county, with totals closer to 1 to 3 inches in the northwest. These amounts, combined with northerly winds gusting around 35 MPH, resulted in white-out conditions across the county. The highest measured amount reported was 15 inches by a trained spotter located 12 miles southwest of Tipton. A total of 11.3 inches was reported by a CoCoRaHS observer located seven miles north-northeast of Natoma.
Storm total snow amounts generally in the 8 to 16 inch range, combined with northerly winds gusting around 35 MPH, resulted in white-out conditions across the county. The highest measured amount reported included 12 inches by a CoCoRaHS observer located seven miles northeast of Beloit, higher estimated amounts were reported elsewhere across east-southeast portions of the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, January 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1227952, 1227953, 1227954, 1227955, 1227956, 1227957, 1227958, 1227959, 1227960, 1227961, 1227962.