High Wind in Texas, April 18, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Thunderstorms are possible primarily across the eastern Rolling
   Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle late this afternoon
   and evening, with strong winds and large hail possible.

 - Showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the
   region late Saturday, with quiet weather returning Sunday and
   Monday before daily thunderstorm chances return from Tuesday
   through the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

An H-5 upper level trough over the four corners region continues to
move east with high pressure centered over the southeastern US. Our
FA in the mean time sits in a belt of enhanced southwesterlies aloft
helping usher in moisture in the mid levels as indicated by
increasing clouds. A cold front continues to move south through the
area with gusty northerly winds behind it. However, this front has
begun to stall as southwesterly winds continue to strengthen with
pressure falls to our west. This front may retreat northward late
this afternoon for a few hours. However, models continue to have a
poor handle on cold front timing and progression throughout today
and tomorrow.

Thunderstorms are possible in our far eastern counties this
afternoon behind the cold front as upper level divergence from the
H5 jet streak of 60+ kts along with mid level moistening will
provide lift for thunderstorms. However, the main severe weather
chances should remain off to the east of our FA where better surface
moisture exists ahead of the dryline.

Moving into the overnight period, the cold front will begin to push
south with most of our counties becoming post frontal with lows
ranging from low 40's in the northwestern counties to low 60's in
the southeastern counties.

As we move into the day tomorrow, the trough will continue to push
east providing diffluence aloft along with vorticity advection,
enhancing lift across the area. This will provide a focus for
thunderstorm initiation during the late afternoon and evening hours
tomorrow as MUCAPE values of 500+ j/kg provide energy for
thunderstorms. For additional details, see long term AFD below.

-BT/KL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

An upper level low over the southern Rockies will set up a
southwesterly jet streak over the region on Saturday aiding in
chances of precipitation. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue
overnight through Sunday afternoon as an embedded shortwave moves
overhead aiding in ascent as the upper low approaches the region.
Low level stable air mass will help keep chances of severe
thunderstorms low however, some hail and severe winds gusts are
possible. Conditions are expected to dry up by Sunday afternoon as
the upper level low moves east away from the region however will be
relatively cool and slightly breezy. After the departure of the low,
west to southwesterly flow aloft should prevail for most of the
week. Surface winds will shift to a southerly flow, warming
temperatures to upper 70s and 80s through the week. Precipitation
chances are expected to return Tuesday as southwesterly flow
overhead ushers in subtropical moisture. A typical springtime
dryline setup and multiple embedded shortwaves over the region will
bring high to likely chances of PoPs through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

A stalled front bisects the City of Lubbock, with KLBB remaining
on the northern quadrant of this front. Winds are expected to
remain out of the east for the next few hours before backing more
towards the northeast. However, should the front slosh farther
northward from its current position, then a significant adjustment
to the wind direction will be necessary. Trends will continue to
be monitored.

Otherwise, breezy, northeasterly winds will persist at KCDS and
KPVW as well, with VCSH possible at KCDS and KPVW while any TSRA
remains focused INVOF KCDS through midnight. CIGs are forecast to
lower into IFR at all terminals during the overnight hours as the
stalled front resumes its southward progression, though this layer
should only be a few thousand feet thick. Low CIGs should remain
intact through tomorrow afternoon at the terminals, with some
indications of the deck scattering out at KLBB late tomorrow
afternoon. TSTM potential will increase near the end and shortly
after the scope of this TAF period across the region.

Sincavage

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Mid-morning update: A faster than expected progression of a cold
front through the Panhandle is resulting in cooler than expected
temperatures across the northern end of the Red Flag Warning.
However, current indications are that the front will retreat
northward this afternoon with warm, dry air and gusty southwest
winds eventually spreading across that area. Will keep the RFW in
place but will continue to monitor the potential for some
adjustments to it this afternoon.

Previous discussion: Critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop once again this afternoon, primarily across
the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains.
Unseasonably warm temperatures will develop this afternoon with
highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s across the FA. Additionally,
breezy to low end windy conditions are expected with wind speeds
of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 40 mph with the exception being for
areas off the Caprock where wind speeds will be on the "lighter"
side around 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. A dryline
positioned near the I-27 corridor by daybreak will track east
throughout the day, leading to dry conditions west of the line
with minimum RH values in the low teens across this area. With
RFTI values expected up to 6 along this area warranted an upgrade
of the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains which is in
effect from 10 AM this morning until 7 PM this evening. A
Rangeland Fire Danger statement is in effect for the I-27 corridor
where RFTIs will be slightly lower, resulting in elevated fire
weather conditions.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ033-034-039-
040.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
701 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

TXZ021>044-200015-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
701 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
the southern South Plains. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the
until 8 PM this evening.

Thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon through tonight,
primarily across the eastern Rolling Plains and far southeastern
Texas Panhandle. Hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up
to 70 mph will be possible with strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the area
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. A few severe
thunderstorms capable of producing large hail are possible off the
Caprock.

Daily chances for thunderstorms return to the entire region from
Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.