Rip Current in Florida, April 18, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1209 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

GFS/Euro and model ensembles remain consistent with keeping the
region under the influence of a dominant high pressure system
through the short term, centered around the Atlantic seaboard and
expanding across the SE CONUS and into the Florida peninsula. 00Z
MFL sounding show PWATs below 1 inch, along with a deep and robustly
dry layer from 850mb and above. Models keep the Florida peninsula,
and especially South Florida, in the southern periphery of the
circulation of the high, which will keep generally E winds in
place today.

Meanwhile, ensembles depict a rather complex weather pattern
developing over the central plains with multiple low/frontal
features. These features will push the high further SE, with the sfc
ridge becoming more elongated. In response, pressure gradients
increase across the area and resulting in periods of breezy/gusty
winds along the Atlantic side. Wind gusts are expected in the
25-30 mph range, strongest right along the immediate coast.

With a strong mid level ridge remaining in place through the short
term, along with the dry profile of the air mass and overall
subsidence, no rain is expected during the weekend. Therefore, the
dry and warm conditions will continue. Afternoon highs will
remain in the low 80s near the Atlantic metro areas, and in the
mid-upper 80s over interior and Gulf coast areas. Wouldn't be too
surprising if a few locations over the Gulf side of South Florida
were to hit the low 90s. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Throughout the weekend, the forecast will continue to be heavily
influenced by the strong Atlantic surface high, as well as the mid
level ridging and high pressure. These atmospheric features will
prevent much needed moisture with model guidance forecasting
approximately 60-70% of normal precipitable water and afternoon dew
points in the low 60s in South Florida. Therefore, even with the
easterly breeze and warm temperatures, conditions are expected to
remain dry and stable throughout the weekend and into next week.
There will be a slow warming trend bringing high temperatures into
the mid-to-upper 80s across a majority of the region, with a
potential for abnormal near 90 across SW Florida by Sunday.
Overnight temperatures will be cool and comfortable, with outgoing
longwave radiation and little sky coverage, allowing for lows to
drop into the 60s, except low 70s along the east coast. With very
dry air and very dry fuels regionwide, winds and RH values will be
watched carefully as the conditions will be prime for ignition and
rapid burns.

As we move into early to mid next week, the west Atlantic high will
maintain a stronghold of our weather with dry and stable conditions
continuing. Pressure gradients tighten which will lead to potential
for windy conditions across the east coast metro and Atlantic
waters. There will not be a sufficient increase in the moisture
levels with the air mass still projected to be too dry for
precipitation. Temperatures will continue to reach the mid 80s to
low 90s in the afternoon for a majority of the region - slightly
cooler in the east coast metro. Low temperatures will drop into the
60s, except for low 70s across the east coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conditions prevail with dry and breezy easterly flow through
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Increasingly breezy easterly flow continues this afternoon and a
Small Craft Advisory has been issued through Sunday morning for
Atlantic waters, and starting early Saturday morning for some
southern marine waters on the Gulf side. Conditions may remain
hazardous for small craft through the rest of the weekend and
into early next week.

The seas are expected to gradually increase and reach the 4-6 feet
range by this afternoon, and last through Saturday morning. Can't
rule out occasional 7 ft seas, mainly over the southern-most
Atlantic waters.
&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Breezy easterly winds will bring a high risk of rip currents for
all Atlantic beaches today and through at least Sunday. Elevated
surf will also affect portions of the Atlantic beaches with surf
heights in the 4-5 feet range later today and through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  81  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     69  83  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        71  83  71  85 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        71  82  71  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  72  80  72  81 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  72  80  72  82 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   72  85  72  86 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  70  81  71  82 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       71  82  71  83 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           65  88  66  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     GMZ657.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...Rizzuto