Hail and Damaging Winds in Tennessee, May 2, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
421 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 415 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible over the Midsouth today.
  During the early morning, large hail will be the primary severe
  threat, mainly west of the Mississippi River. After midmorning,
  damaging winds will become the primary severe weather threat,
  accompanied by secondary threats of large hail and brief
  tornadoes. The severe threat will shift to north Mississippi
  this evening.

- Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will continue
  late tonight through Sunday afternoon, mainly to the north and
  east of Memphis.

- Cool temperatures will prevail Saturday through early Monday.
  Most of the Midsouth will see highs in the 60s Sunday, and lows
  in the upper 40s Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

The primary forecast concern remains thunderstorm coverage and
timing through this evening.

An east/west band of storms had formed along an elevated warm
front over central AR early this morning. These storms were semi-
discrete, presenting a marginal hail threat as they lifted northeast.

06Z HRRR depicted ample mixed layer CAPE, in excess of 2500 J/kg
over much of the Midsouth by late morning. A belt of 50+kt 700mb
winds are depicted along and north of the I-40 corridor by midday,
coinciding with 0-6 km bulk shear of 45+ knots. However the 06Z
HRRR missed the aforementioned early morning storms over AR,
limiting confidence in short term convective evolution. Where the
airmass isn't modified, midlevel lapse rates around 7.5 C/km will
support large hail where storms remain discrete.

The steep lapse rates will weaken through the morning, and expect
the primary threat to shift to damaging winds as the stronger
kinematics arrive. The wind threat will push to the TN River by
mid-afternoon. With the continuation of upstream height falls,
the severe weather threat will shift south of I-40 this evening,
focused near an advancing surface cold front. Severe threat should
end over northeast MS mid/late evening, as the low level warm
sector moves into AL.

The Midsouth will remain under an upper level cut-off low through
the weekend. This low will be centered over the mid-Mississippi
and lower Ohio River Valley, and will constitute the eastern leg
of an Omega blocking pattern. Diurnally-enhanced showers will be
possible under this low, especially to the north and east of
Memphis through Sunday. Cloud cover and cold air aloft will
result in surface temperatures around 10 degrees below normal.

The Omega blocking pattern will shift slightly east early next
week, placing the Midsouth under brief ridging aloft on Tuesday.
Tuesday's highs should average near normal.

Medium range guidance is consistent in depicting an ejecting
shortwave from Texas into the lower MS River Valley Tuesday
night. With PWATs around 1.8 inches and diffluent flow aloft,
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
especially south of I-40.

Unsettled weather will likely continue late next week, as the
western U.S. upper low moves into the Great Plains and the
Midsouth remains under the subtropical branch of the upper jet.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Overall thinking has not changed too much for the 06z TAFs.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase on Friday
across the region. The first opportunity for convection will
arrive in the morning with another area of showers and storms
sweeping across Mid-South late morning into the afternoon hours.
Locally reduced vsbys and gusty winds will likely occur if storms
directly impact the terminals. Latest guidance is suggesting
at least isolated convection may also develop in the evening but
confidence is too low to mention at this time. Ceilings will lower
heading into Friday evening with a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions
at the terminals. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will generally
be less than 10 knots through the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...TAB