Scattered thunderstorms developed across Middle Tennessee during the afternoon of May 2, 2025. With abundant instability and moisture and with the help of a front moving through the area, all the ingredients were present to allow for these thunderstorms to become severe.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed across Middle Tennessee during the afternoon of May 2, 2025. With abundant instability and moisture and with the help of a front moving through the area, all the ingredients were present to allow for these thunderstorms to become severe. Several reports of large hail were received, especially near the Nashville metro area. The most significant damage was reported near Monterey were very strong winds caused tree and house damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 2, 10:09 AM CST, 15 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1109 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1047 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main concerns. Tornado and flooding threat is low. - Periods of showers and thunderstorms persist through Saturday, gradually decreasing into Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1047 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 A line of strong to severe storms is nearing the Tennessee River, with a second line of equally potent storms currently pushing through eastern Arkansas. So it could be a long afternoon and evening across Middle Tennessee. The environment across the area is definitely unstable. CAPE values well in excess of 2,000 J/kg cover the entire mid state, and the morning sounding from OHX showed a 700-500 mb lapse rate of 7.3C/km. So the potential for strong updrafts is definitely there, even if shear values and helicities are relatively weak. It is possible that the existing severe thunderstorm watch could be extended beyond the current expiration time of 22Z, especially for eastern portions of Middle Tennessee, if the storms maintain their strength. At any rate, a cold front will come through the area tomorrow morning, so rain and storms chances will taper off by the afternoon. Still, most of Middle Tennessee remains under a marginal risk of severe storms on day 2, but the risk is much lower than today. With the fropa occurring on Saturday, cooler temperatures will spread across the region tomorrow, as well. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1047 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Interestingly, the upper low associated with our weekend weather system will stay in place just to our north into the early part of next week. This will help keep cooler air locked in across Middle Tennessee until about Tuesday, when temperatures will begin a slow warming trend. Still, values next week will stay close to seasonal normals. Rain chances will return to the forecast beginning Tuesday night and Wednesday and lasting through the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 649 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 A challenging TAF period is coming up across Middle Tennessee airfields. The main concern is afternoon TSRA, with some convection being severe with strong wind gusts and hail. A line of TSRA is possible, moving from west to east across the state. Main timing window was handled with a TEMPO at each terminal. Until storms arrive, there's variable cloudiness around with S to SW winds at 5-8 kts this morning. After the storminess ends, additional rain chances build across the area as cold front moves closer. Overnight cigs are forecast to drop to MVFR after ~03z, then to IFR after ~09z with continuing presence of rain showers. Isolated TS is also possible, but was too low for TAF inclusion. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 83 62 71 53 / 80 90 90 40 Clarksville 81 60 71 51 / 80 90 90 40 Crossville 79 57 66 50 / 70 70 100 60 Columbia 84 61 70 51 / 80 90 90 30 Cookeville 80 59 67 52 / 70 80 100 60 Jamestown 80 57 67 51 / 70 70 100 70 Lawrenceburg 83 61 69 51 / 80 90 90 30 Murfreesboro 84 61 70 52 / 80 80 90 40 Waverly 81 59 70 51 / 80 90 80 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Sizemore
The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 63 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:26 UTC.
11 hail, 5 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed trees in Land Between the Lakes. Damages are a rough estimate.
Estimated quarter size hail was reported near Waynesboro.
Estimated half-dollar size hail was reported in Minor Hill.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed trees at Stephens Street and Buffalo Road in Lawrenceburg. Damages are a rough estimate.
Estimated quarter size hail was reported in Collinwood.
Estimated quarter size hail was reported just west of Lewisburg.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed trees on the University of Belmont campus near Belmont Boulevard and Ashwood Avenue. Damages are a rough estimate.
Estimated quarter size hail was reported near Antioch.
Estimated quarter size hail was reported near Antioch.
Heavy rain caused flash flooding along College Street in Pulaski. Extent of damages is unknown.
Estimated quarter size hail was reported along I-24 near Antioch.
Estimated half-dollar size hail was reported in Nashboro Village.
Estimated quarter size hail was reported between Unionville and Deason.
Heavy rain caused flash flooding along Tennessee State Road 98 near Second Creek Road in Loretto. Extent of damages is unknown.
Estimated quarter size hail was reported in Lafayette.
Strong thunderstorm winds downed a few trees and tree limbs south of Woodbury. Damages are a rough estimate.
Estimated nickel size hail was reported near Independence.
Very strong thunderstorm winds caused significant damage in the Monterey area. On Belmont Road, a tree fell onto a home which caused siding damage. Also on Belmont Road, a tree fell onto another home, this time causing more significant damage as the tree fell into the home which caused roof and wall damage. On Highway 70, winds caused shingle damage to a mobile home as well as a commercial building. No injuries were reported. Damages are a rough estimate.
A water main line was struck by lightning south of Monterey, causing the loss of 500,000 gallons of water. Damages are a rough estimate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1241013, 1241014, 1241016, 1241017, 1241015, 1241018, 1241019, 1241020, 1241021, 1241039, 1241022, 1241023, 1241025, 1241041, 1241024, 1248990, 1241026, 1241029, 1241043.