A cold front moved into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the morning of May 2nd, with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the front. Within the warm, humid air mass ahead of the front, temperatures warmed into the upper 70s by the early afternoon hours, allowing for 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
A cold front moved into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the morning of May 2nd, with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the front. Within the warm, humid air mass ahead of the front, temperatures warmed into the upper 70s by the early afternoon hours, allowing for 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop. Wind shear was fairly modest for the time of year, with between 25 and 30 kt of effective bulk shear present. As the line of storms moved across central Kentucky, a couple bowing segments developed, producing scattered wind damage along the Ohio River. An isolated stronger cell across south central Kentucky produced severe hail up to golf ball size, in addition to gusty winds.
The following morning on May 3rd, the cold front was still slowly pushing east across the area. While mostly light to moderate rain showers were present, one stronger cell was able to produce a brief EF0 tornado over Franklin County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 2, 11:20 AM CST, 36 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 120 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and thunderstorms are expected once again this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible, with gusty winds and hail being the primary hazards. * Unsettled weather continues into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms expected again on Saturday. Showers should become more widely scattered on Sunday, and the chance for storms will be much lower. && .UPDATE... Issued at 952 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Storms formed early this morning over northeast Arkansas and west Tennessee, with additional storms over the Ozarks ahead of a subtle 5H wave and MCV. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have already been issued for several of the Memphis area cells. While the future of these two complexes is not completely certain, it appears that they may gel into one larger corridor of storms and move quickly eastward this morning, possibly evolving into a long bowing line this afternoon and early this evening it passes through middle Tennessee and central Kentucky. This suggests wind will be the main threat with these storms. Ambient low level SRH is weak this afternoon with weak curvature in hodograph progs, the tornado threat, but isolated NSE spin-ups cannot be ruled out. WBZ heights support the idea of severe hail, but only moderate deep layer shear will be in place. Precipitable water values indicate plenty of water in the atmosphere that could help reduce hailstone size, but 1-1.50" hail may still be a possibility in the stronger updrafts. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 416 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 The Lower Ohio Valley sits on the leading side of a positively tilted upper trough running through the Plains. At the surface, Near the southern point of Lake Michigan sits a small low with a weak cold front dropping south through Indiana and trailing back towards the Mississippi and Ohio confluence. Ahead of this area, southwest winds continue to funnel Gulf moisture into the CWA. This will lift dew points into the low 60s and precipitable water values to around 1.1" across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. This isn't a ton of moisture, but as WAA and sunshine early in the day warm temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s, it will provide plenty of fuel for convection this afternoon and evening. By this afternoon, MLCAPE values are expected to be in the 1,000- 2,000+ J/kg range across the CWA with the lower values being near the Ohio River and values increasing to the south. MUCAPE values could climb closer to 2,500 J/kg across south central Kentucky before convection, currently in Oklahoma, develops into a large generally north to south oriented bowing segment that is expected to sweep through the region. Model sounding show steep low and mid level lapse rates with DCAPE values near 800 J/kg across southern Kentucky. This should help to get winds down to the surface, making severe winds likely. Hail is also possible in this environment, but with all the cells merged together in a wet environment with a lot of melting taking place, marginally severe hail and smaller is most likely. Not expecting huge hail. Unimpressive hodographs and weak low level shear limit the tornado threat. For tonight, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances remain, but expect drier conditions before another round of precipitation arrives Saturday morning. Lows are expected to fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 416 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Saturday through Sunday Night... Unsettled weather is expected to continue this weekend as an upper trough descending across the Plains this afternoon and evening becomes cutoff and spins across the Ohio Valley into early next week. Saturday morning, with the upper trough axis expected to be just west of the area, diffluent flow aloft will support the development of sfc low pressure across the lower Ohio Valley. East of the sfc low, southerly flow will allow for another surge of near- sfc moisture, increasing instability. There is still quite a bit of variation in where the sfc low develops and how quickly it pushes east on Saturday. A faster/farther east solution will reduce rain chances quicker Saturday afternoon, and will also push the best chances for strong storms into eastern KY. However, a slower/west solution would keep widespread rain and storms in central KY during the day on Saturday, and would increase the chance for a few stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail. For this forecast issuance, expect widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday morning, with coverage decreasing from west to east later in the afternoon. By Saturday evening, a secondary area of showers and a few thunderstorms associated with the center of the upper low is expected to move into the area from the NW. As we lose the heating of the day, coverage of showers should become more isolated/scattered, with the greatest coverage expected near the center of the upper low. Scattered rain showers should continue into Sunday and Sunday night as the upper low is expected to spin over the Ohio Valley. Coverage should be driven partially by daytime heating, as well as proximity to the upper low center. While the weekend does not look like a washout, rain showers will be possible most of the time. Total rain amounts this weekend will generally be between 0.50-1", with locally higher amounts expected in thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler this weekend thanks to cooler temperatures aloft and increased cloud cover. Exact temperature forecasts are still uncertain; for example, there is roughly an equal probability that temperatures remain in the 50s or reach 70 degrees on Sunday. The current deterministic forecast calls for highs in the 60s Saturday and Sunday, with low temperatures falling into the 40s and lower 50s. Monday through Tuesday Night... The upper low is expected to gradually lift northward Monday into Tuesday, with the blocking upper high over Ontario gradually eroding away. There is still a fair amount of spread in how quickly the system lifts to the north, and this will have an impact on precipitation chances and temperatures Monday and Tuesday. As the low lifts to the north, precipitation chances and cloud cover should decrease, with temperatures increasing as a result. With weak flow aloft and little to no instability over the area, expecting just plain rain showers for the most part. At this time, Tuesday appears to have the best chance for dry conditions across the area over the next 7 days. Mid-to-Late Next Week... Recent runs of medium-range guidance are fairly consistent with the large scale features during the second half of next week, with another closed upper low expected to meander from the southwest U.S. into the central Plains. On the east side of this system, moisture will begin to increase into the region from the SW by next Wednesday. How much moisture makes it into the Ohio Valley will be dependent on how far east the closed low makes it, and it is still possible that the upper high could keep the richer moisture to the SW. If the higher sfc dewpoints and PW values make it into the area, we would return to an unsettled pattern with daily afternoon and evening shower/storm chances. Given a lack of strong mid-/upper- flow, any storms should be of the garden variety, with limited severe impacts. Temperatures are currently expected to be fairly spring-like mid-to-late next week, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 119 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Wave of storms over western Kentucky and west Tennessee will head northeast and impact the TAF sites this afternoon/early evening. These storms may be quite strong, especially at BWG/LEX/RGA, with strong wind gusts and possibly some hail in the most robust cores. There is also the chance of scattered storms popping up ahead of that wave, though any of these pop-ups would be relatively small and weak compared to the later storms. A second line of storms may graze BWG early this evening. Behind the storms, showers will continue through the night with lowering ceilings. Cigs in current TAF package may be a bit on the pessimistic side, but there is decent model agreement and there should be plenty of low level moisture available so went ahead and included IFR cloud base heights at BWG and low-end MVFR numbers at the other airports. Wind direction late tonight into tomorrow morning is a question mark as a wave of surface low pressure moves through, but speeds should be fairly light at any rate. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && UPDATE...13 SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...13
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 1104 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-066-067-031515- Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry- Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson- Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin- Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon- Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion- Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Casey-Lincoln- 1104 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 /1004 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats. The most likely area for severe storms will be east of I-65 and south of the Ohio River. The most likely timing is between 1pm and 7pm, starting in the west and moving east. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Rounds of showers with some storms are likely for Saturday. Gusty winds and heavy downpours will be possible in the strongest storms. Isolated minor flooding is possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY: Storms this afternoon and evening will move to the northeast around 35 to 45 mph. Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity can be erratic and constantly evolving. Please use this with caution and be prepared for changing conditions. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville. KYZ061>065-070>078-081-082-031515- Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren- Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton- 1104 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 /1004 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025/ ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats. The most likely area for severe storms will be east of I-65 and south of the Ohio River. The most likely timing is between 1pm and 6pm, starting in the west and moving east. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Rounds of showers with some storms are likely for Saturday. Gusty winds and heavy downpours will be possible in the strongest storms. Isolated minor flooding is possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY: Storms this afternoon and evening will move to the northeast around 35 to 45 mph. Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity can be erratic and constantly evolving. Please use this with caution and be prepared for changing conditions. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1217 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025
KYZ061-070-021800-
Logan KY-Butler KY-
1217 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER
COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...
At 1217 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles north of Pembroke
to near Elkton to near Clarksville. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Russellville, Morgantown, Anderson, Lewisburg, Rochester, Insco,
Huntsville, Gordonsville, Mining City, and Spa.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for
south central Kentucky.
&&
LAT...LON 3706 8705 3707 8694 3709 8690 3711 8689
3715 8693 3718 8692 3718 8689 3719 8691
3721 8690 3727 8673 3699 8670 3677 8678
3664 8690 3664 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 221DEG 39KT 3694 8731 3676 8723 3658 8724
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
RJSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1250 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025
KYZ061-062-070-071-021815-
Warren KY-Logan KY-Edmonson KY-Butler KY-
1250 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...CENTRAL
BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN WARREN AND SOUTHWESTERN EDMONSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 115 PM CDT...
At 1250 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Memphis Junction, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Morgantown, Woodbury, Windyville, Roundhill, Dimple,
Girkin, Leetown, Rockland, and Buffalo Fork.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for
south central Kentucky.
&&
LAT...LON 3694 8671 3717 8682 3729 8649 3723 8631
3706 8628
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 239DEG 30KT 3704 8666
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
BJSThe Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 37 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:53 UTC.
20 thunderstorm wind, 7 hail, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were blown down along Nashville Street in Russellville.
Quarter size hail was reported just south of Dimple.
Several trees were blown down by strong winds along Kentucky Route 144 between Weberstown and Arrington Corner. Some downed trees fell onto power lines.
Multiple trees were downed by strong winds near the intersection of Pellville-Hawesville Road and Joe Powers Road.
Quarter size hail was estimated in the Chalybeate area.
A tree was blown down near the intersection of Middle Knottsville Road and Storm Road.
Quarter sized hail, with some slightly larger hailstones, was reported north of Cave City.
Golf ball sized hail was reported north of Exie.
Trees and power lines were blown down by strong winds along Rutledge Road.
A carport was lifted into power lines by strong winds near Valley Station.
A few trees were blown over and several large branches were snapped by strong winds in the Park Duvalle area.
Power lines were downed by strong winds at the intersection of St Catherine Street and South First Street.
A tree was downed by strong winds across Lampton Street.
A tree was blown over onto two vehicles at the intersection of South Brook Street and East Burnett Avenue in Louisville.
A tree was blown down across Etley Avenue in Louisville.
A tree was blown down across the road near the intersection of Massie Avenue and Ridgeway Avenue in St Matthews.
A tree was blown down across the road near the intersection of Lexington Road and Payne Street in Louisville.
A tree was blown down, bringing power lines down with it near the 2100 block of Lexington Road in Louisville.
Trees and power lines were blown down near the 3100 block of Lynnwood Way in Jeffersontown.
A tree was blown down near the 7600 block of Rockingham Road in Prospect.
A tree was blown down, blocking the road near the 5500 block of Kentucky Route 146 between Crestwood and Buckner.
A tree was blown down by strong winds on the 100 block of East Main Street in La Grange.
A tree was blown down, blocking two lanes of southbound Interstate 71.
Power lines were blown down along the 300 block of Anderson Heights in Stanford.
An NWS Survey confirmed a non-supercell EF0 tornado, with maximum|winds of 80 mph and a path length of approximately 1 mile, occurred near Peaks Mill|on the morning of Saturday, May 3rd. The tornado was on the |ground for about 4 minutes and had a peak width of approximately 30 |yards.
Damage was first observed near John Branch creek near Sullivan |Lane, and the tornado continued across John Branch creek and |followed Sullivan Lane to the northeast. Some large tree branch |damage occurred and some roofing and siding damage to barns and |nearby residences. The tornado continued across Elkhorn creek and|continued to produce damage to barn roofing and trees. The |tornado did some minor damage to a barn across Peaks Mill Road |before lifting. Tree branch damage and uproot damage from drone |footage showed a clear convergence signature along Sullivan Lane.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kentucky, 2025Warnings in Kentucky, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1262070, 1260178, 1262073, 1262075, 1262076, 1262079, 1262080, 1262341, 1262342, 1262343, 1262345, 1262347, 1262348, 1262349, 1262351, 1262352, 1262353, 1262354, 1262355, 1262356, 1262357, 1262358, 1262359, 1262360, 1262067, 1262361, 1262363, 1268973.