Dry conditions allowed for severe (D2) drought conditions to continue across southeastern Pennsylvania through February 2025. Multiple rounds of precipitation did allow for some relief; however, long-term precipitation deficits kept much of southeastern Pennsylvania in severe drought.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Dry conditions allowed for severe (D2) drought conditions to continue across southeastern Pennsylvania through February 2025. Multiple rounds of precipitation did allow for some relief; however, long-term precipitation deficits kept much of southeastern Pennsylvania in severe drought. Dry conditions towards the end of the month did allow for slight expansion of severe drought in portions of York County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:04 PM EST, 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1104 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Active weather pattern to start February with precipitation chances every few days and a temperature roller coaster * Chilly, dry, and sunny Saturday before a quick- hitting system brings light precip Sunday afternoon mainly across northern PA * Next week will be mild with an increasing likelihood of unsettled weather by the second half of the work week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Gradually improving conditions expected tonight as the main precip shield moves east of the area and a cold front sweeps through from northwest to southeast. Radar shows only widely scattered showers across Central PA late this evening with temperatures ranging from the middle 30s across the north to lower 50s near the Mason-Dixon line. An anafrontal precip shield is evident across the Lake Erie/Ontario axis with light snow showers drifting slowly southeast behind the front. Quick coating of snow possible overnight, especially north of US-6 as the precip moves through. Elsewhere, lingering low clouds and patchy fog are expected as temperatures by daybreak fall into the upper teens in northern PA and near freezing in the south. Saturday looks much better than Friday with dry conditions and much more sunshine, albeit a chilly day. A north wind could keep some (Great and/or Finger) lake enhanced clouds across the region, but we'll call it mostly sunny for most. Not expecting much in the way of temperature rises on Saturday as cold advection keeps temperatures stuck in the upper teens to upper 30s and a light north wind drops wind chills in to the single digits or teens north of I-80. High temperatures will be below average across the entire region Saturday afternoon, which will likely be the last such day through at least the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Still chilly Saturday night with increasing clouds, which will limit the amount of radiational cooling somewhat. Saturday night will see the coldest temperatures for awhile with a big warm up in store to start February. Lows by the time Punxsutawney emerges on Groundhog Day morning (Sunday) drop into the single digits north of US-6 and are generally in the teens elsewhere. A fast moving disturbance tracking through the Great Lakes and into upstate NY will brush northern PA with increasing clouds and scattered rain/snow showers Sunday afternoon and evening, while central and southern areas remain mainly dry. QPF near a tenth of an inch is expected with a coating to an inch of snow north of I-80. Much of Pennsylvania will be in the "warm" sector Sunday into Monday with southerly winds and moderating temperatures. A trailing cold front will set up parallel to and just north of the PA/NY border on Monday, which will keep precipitation in the forecast up north and dry but cloudy conditions south. Monday afternoon temperatures are progged to soar into the 50s south of I-80 (perhaps cresting the 60F mark along the Mason-Dixon line). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A transient area of surface high pressure will build into the area under zonal upper level flow for the beginning of the long- term forecast period, which will allow for dry conditions across central Pennsylvania Monday night through Tuesday evening. Then, upper ridging builds in again by Wednesday as upper flow becomes more amplified, helping temperatures moderate through Thursday. At the surface, low pressure moving across the Central US will bring a period of precipitation by midweek (likely starting Wednesday and continuing through Thursday). Precipitation type at onset on Wednesday is expected to be snow or freezing rain with cool air in place and a classic cold air damming situation. Then, precip will transition to mainly rain as the low tracks well north of PA. Quite a bit of model spread with how warm it gets toward the end of next week based on the timing/track of low pressure and northward extent of the warm sector. The warmest ensemble members push temperatures into the 40s to 60s, while the mean is in the mid 30s to near 50. By Thursday night, a digging upper trough in the wake of a cold front should drop temperatures back toward normal. Quite a bit of uncertainty with surface low pressure tracks/timing by the end of the week, which lead to maintaining slight chance PoPs into the weekend and temperatures close to the ensemble mean. Fairly high confidence in an active pattern continuing with odds favoring above normal temperatures (storm track to the north of PA) and above normal precipitation (shot of moisture every few days). && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Late evening update. Had some dense fog and low CIGS form over the far southeast sites of LNS and MDT for a brief time, as the warmer air got into THV. Rather strong dynamics and wind fields, with a small area of higher echo tops earlier, but risk of thunder in the area just south of MDT is over with. Anyway, dense fog has moved out of the above area. Been updating TAFS as needed. Earlier discussion below. 00Z TAFS sent. Steady rain will quickly taper from north to south this evening. As winds shift to the northwest and drier air works in overnight, conditions will improve. The last areas to see improvement will be likely BFD and JST, as upslope moisture lingers into Saturday morning, along with some snow showers. Expect any low clouds and snow showers to end by late morning or early afternoon across the mountains. Southeast sites likely to see improvement by late this evening or shortly afterwords. High pressure will build in later Saturday, resulting in lighter winds and mainly clear skies. Outlook... Sun...Chance of light snow north central PA. Mon...Breezy with rain/snow shower possible. Tue...Mainly VFR. Wed...AM snow across N PA with rain across S PA transitions to all rain by afternoon hours. Restrictions possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Banghoff NEAR TERM...Banghoff SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Banghoff LONG TERM...Banghoff/NPB AVIATION...Martin
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 920 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 PAZ035-036-056-057-059-063>066-020230- Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- 920 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-058-020230- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- 920 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Patchy fog may reduce visibility to as low as a quarter mile overnight. A few icy spots are also possible as temperatures fall below freezing. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
724 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2025
PAZ036-064>066-010100-
Lancaster PA-York PA-Adams PA-Franklin PA-
724 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL LANCASTER...
ADAMS...YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EST...
At 723 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rouzerville, moving east at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Arendtsville, York Airport, Wayne Heights, Stonybrook-Wilshire, New
Oxford, Parkville, Red Lion, Lake Meade, Fawn Grove, Glenville, Cross
Roads, Biglerville, Loganville, Glen Rock, East York, Carroll Valley,
Hallam, Spry, Washington Boro, and Seven Valleys.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3983 7772 4012 7644 3972 7635 3972 7778
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 255DEG 96KT 3977 7751
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MartinThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Continued dry conditions allowed for D2 (severe) drought conditions to continue across Lancaster County throughout all of February 2025.
Continued dry conditions allowed for D2 (severe) drought conditions to continue across Lebanon County throughout all of February 2025.
Continued dry conditions allowed for D2 (severe) drought conditions to continue across Schuylkill County throughout all of February 2025.
Continued dry conditions allowed for D2 (severe) drought conditions to continue across southern Columbia County throughout all of February 2025.
Continued dry conditions allowed for D2 (severe) drought conditions to continue across southeastern Northumberland County throughout all of February 2025.
Continued dry conditions allowed for D2 (severe) drought conditions to continue across eastern York County throughout all of February 2025.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1234783, 1234788, 1234792, 1234796, 1234800, 1234803.