The passage of a cold front brought strong south winds to the Curry County Coast in southern Oregon.
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The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The passage of a cold front brought strong south winds to the Curry County Coast in southern Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 4, 2:03 PM PST, 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
203 PM PST Tue Nov 4 2025
.DISCUSSION...Radar imagery early this afternoon shows a broad
area of precipitation moving across the area from generally
southwest to northeast. This is the warm front that will push
through our area today, and the rain is a product of warm moist
inflow overrunning the cooler air near the surface. The parent low
pressure center still lies well offshore, but will strengthen as
it makes its run towards the coast through this evening, with the
cold front arriving tonight into early Wednesday morning.
This cold front will be the main event of the week, arriving as a
strong storm that will impact the area through tonight and into
early tomorrow morning. A substantial moisture plume and very
tight pressure gradients will produce strong winds and heavy
precipitation over nearly all of southern Oregon and far northern
California. With surface pressure gradients ranging roughly
between -6 and -8 mb across the area, and with model 700mb winds
now approaching 80 kt, all of southern Oregon and far northern
California will see at least gusty winds, with strong winds along
the coast, in the Shasta Valley, over the mountains, and across
the East Side. The negative tilt in the upper level trough also
suggests that that stronger winds could impact portions of the
West Side as well, including the I-5 corridor from Ashland to
Medford, and in some of the other roughly south/north oriented
valleys. Numerous wind headlines remain in effect, and some have
been upgraded or expanded, covering most of the region. More
information and detail on these can be found at PDXNPWMFR. Winds
have already started to increase along the coast and in Siskiyou
County, and this will spread to the rest of the area over the next
several hours.
Meanwhile, moisture transport values for this front, as measured
by IVT, a function of wind and humidity, are expected to reach
values of 1000 to 1250 (a typical front would average about 500).
This would be considered a strong atmospheric river, or a rather
classic "Pineapple Express," as the moisture plume originates
from the tropics near Hawai'i. A substantial amount of rain is
possible for much of the area, especially along the coast and in
Siskiyou County. However, the front is a fast mover, and some
locations, such as the Rogue Valley near Medford and much of the
East Side, will see lesser amounts due to significant downsloping
winds off the Siskiyous and Cascades. While widespread flooding is
not expected at this time, we will likely see nuisance type
flooding with ponding on roadways and blocked drains due to
recently fallen leaves. Additionally, King Tides are expected Nov
5-7 (Wednesday through Friday) which could bring additional
impacts to the coast as this storm and the following system
enters the region, especially with heavy rains putting additional
water into area rivers and estuaries.
With the strong dynamics of the system, we could easily see some
isolated thunderstorms along and west of the Cascades Wednesday
as the upper level trough axis passes overhead. While the storms
themselves aren't expected to be strong, they could transport
strong winds from higher in the atmosphere down to the surface,
and some small hail is possible due to the colder air aloft.
Snow levels will remain high through this storm and through the
rest of the week, between 6000 and 8000 feet, so we are not
expecting any impactful winter weather.
Another robust front arrives Thursday, although it looks weaker
than the previous one, and models have trended even weaker over
the last several runs. Most model guidance suites are showing
another round of gusty winds and rain, but not to the extent of
tonight's event. This storm, however, will coincide with the
highest King Tides around noon on Thursday. Ocean level models are
depicting a small storm surge with the event, along with high
surf conditions which will push water into local bays and
estuaries, which will make tidal influences even stronger. Some
localized coastal flooding is possible, particularly for low lying
areas and roads around Coos Bay and any roads or low lying
beaches and shorelines, and erosion along area beaches will be a
concern. High Surf Advisories and a Coastal Flood Watch are in
effect, with details and more information at PDXCFWMFR.
Conditions gradually improve through Friday, then an upper level
ridge builds in overhead Saturday into Sunday. This will dry
things out for the weekend, but it will be just a quick break
before the next system arrives late Sunday into Monday. Despite
the overwhelming consensus for dry conditions across the model
suites, the NBM continues to produce constant rain chances through
the weekend and into early next week. The forecast has been
adjusted drier, but due to the limitations in the current forecast
procedures within the agency, the forecast keeps some slight
chances in place, despite the very highly likelihood for dry
conditions over the entire weekend. There continues to be some
drastic changes and variation in the models regarding the front
early next week, so confidence remains low regarding rain and wind
chances from Sunday on, especially since there has been
significant weakening in the models over the past several runs,
and it now looks like the front will be more of a glancing blow.
-BPN
&&
.AVIATION...04/18Z TAFs...A frontal boundary draped from NorCal into
south-central Oregon is producing light rain and MVFR ceilings with
higher terrain obscuration in those areas this morning. Farther
north, most areas are VFR currently. But, things are going to change
this afternoon. This front will lift northward as a warm front,
while a stronger cold front remains offshore. We expect pressure
gradients to tighten area wide later this afternoon and especially
tonight as the cold front offshore moves closer to the coast.
This will cause strong south to southeast winds to develop and
become hazardous this afternoon, then continue for most areas
tonight. Peak wind gusts along the coast will be 40-60kt. Local
gusts at the headlands could reach 70kt. Gusts of 35-50kt will
likely be observed over some inland valleys aligned with the S-SE
flow (Shasta, Scott, portions of the Rogue) as well as over the East
Side. Even Roseburg could get gusts to 25kt. Smaller aircraft should
be secured or brought inside hangars, especially where gusts exceed
40kt. Flying conditions will become difficult, with the expected
strong winds, ceilings lowering to MVFR, and the potential for low-
level wind shear (LLWS). LLWS is most likely at North Bend and also
at Roseburg. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will accompany the
front as it moves inland late tonight into Wednesday morning
(heaviest along coast/NorCal, lighter farther north and east).
Winds remain breezy to gusty Wednesday, but not quite so strong.
Even so, instability developing Wednesday could result in some
thunderstorms (with gusty winds) later Wednesday morning into the
afternoon along the coast and portions of the west side.
-Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, November 4, 2025...No
changes. The warm front will lift northward through the waters this
afternoon with rain and diminished visibility. Strong southerly
winds are developing in advance of the cold front well offshore with
strong gales and even some near-storm or storm force wind gusts (50-
60 kt, locally 70kt) expected in the 7 pm to 3 am PDT time frame.
These winds will build very steep wind waves on top of existing long
period west swell, which will cause extremely dangerous marine
conditions. Storm warnings are in effect and mariners are encouraged
to seek safe harbor, remain in port and secure vessels until the
storm has passed. A Gale Warning remains in effect for Wednesday,
which immediately follows the Storm Warning.
Additionally, isolated to scattered marine thunderstorms are
expected late tonight into Wednesday evening, especially Wednesday
afternoon north of Cape Blanco.
Southerly winds ease Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but very
steep and hazardous long-period west swell will persist. Advisory
level high surf is forecast, with current guidance building 22-26 ft
surf heights. King Tides are expected on Thursday, which may
increase the impact of hazardous conditions. Bar crossings will be
especially dangerous and fishing infrastructure may be vulnerable.
Another front, although weaker compared to the one tonight, is
likely to bring additional gales and very high seas Thursday into
Thursday evening. High pressure brings improving weather Friday into
the weekend. But, lingering swell is likely to support high, steep
to very steep and hazardous seas at least into Saturday morning.
Active weather may return early next week. -Spilde
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, November 4,
2025...Tonight into Wednesday, storm force winds will build very
steep seas to high surf advisory criteria (20-25 feet). Some south-
facing beaches may experience high surf and bar crossing could be
very dangerous. South-facing ports like Port Orford/Brookings, could
have water spill over onto parking lots. This will then be followed
by a long period swell Wednesday night into Thursday impacting all
west-facing beaches/ports. With King Tides on Thursday, this may
increase the impact of hazardous conditions. Area beaches will
become hazardous due to dangerous surf conditions, bar crossings
will be especially dangerous and fishing infrastructure may be
vulnerable. -Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Wednesday
for ORZ021-022-027>031.
High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Thursday
for ORZ021-022.
Coastal Flood Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening for ORZ021.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Wednesday for
ORZ023>026.
CA...High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Wednesday
for CAZ081-084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Wednesday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-
376.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
High winds were recorded at Flynn Prairie with south winds reaching a peak of 26 mph with gusts to 59 mph, and at Gold Beach Municipal Airport with a peak of 44 mph with gusts to 63 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1301295.