NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 4, 5:57 AM CST, 3 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Nov 4, 5:57 AM CST, 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
557 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Weak system brings light rain this evening, with some
snowflakes mixing in tonight over northern Minnesota.
- Normal temperatures return mid week, with chances for rain and
a light wintry mix Thursday night and Friday.
- Cold air surges southward for the weekend, with chances of
rain/snow Saturday, although precipitation chances are
shifting southward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
High clouds are filling in across the Northland this morning,
ahead of an approaching weak upper level wave and surface low.
Low levels are dry, with PW values around 0.25 inches and a
substantial dry layer between 500 and 700mb, per the evening
RAOB from INL. Moisture will gradually increase today, as a weak
surface low tracks across the northern Plains toward Lake
Michigan. Better moisture fields will remain on the north side
of the surface low, closer to the weak upper level trough axis
and mid level jet, over the Northland. From west to east this
afternoon, profiles slowly moisten downward, and expect a period
of virga before any light rain makes it to the ground.
Precipitation chances will quickly spread from west to east this
evening, with the better chances north of a line from Brainerd
to Phillips, and best chances north of US-2 in MN and across the
Arrowhead. Profiles will cool as colder air advects southward,
and some snowflakes could mix in overnight across northern
Minnesota. A tenth to a few tenths of an inch of rainfall are
possible.
A surface ridge crosses the area Wednesday, with cold advection
continuing under northwesterly upper level flow. This will
bring temperatures down to seasonal norms, with highs in the 40s
and lower 50s Wednesday and Thursday, and overnight lows in the
20s Wednesday night.
Upper level pattern remains active for the end of the week and
the weekend, with a couple opportunities for precipitation.
Thursday, a low amplitude trough advances across the Plains,
with a surface low dropping across the Canadian Plains and
moving toward Lake Superior. Ahead of this system, moisture
remains north of the area where a low level convergence zone
sets up. This will keep much of the precipitation north of the
area through the day Thursday. A secondary shortwave will push
southward across Manitoba Thursday night, pushing a cold front
into the Northland overnight Thursday, with light precipitation
chances continuing through the day Friday.
Much colder air will push southward behind this system, with
weekend temperatures dropping to 8 to 12 degrees below normal.
Highs Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 30s, with much of
north central and northeast Minnesota remaining at or below
freezing. Overnight lows will be in the teens and lower 20s.
Model guidance has consistently shown another system arriving
Saturday, with a round of rain/snow possible for much of the
area. Current model trends track the surface low further to our
southwest, which would limit moisture and lift over the
Northland, with the better, if any, snow accumulations now over
the southern half of the forecast area Saturday afternoon and
evening. On the backside of this system, we could see flurries
or brief, isolated snow showers Sunday, as the upper level
trough axis drops southward. Temperatures moderate slightly for
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
High clouds continue to stream across the area this morning,
with light and variable winds. VFR conditions will continue
through much of the day, with cigs gradually lowering. Light
southerly winds will become southeasterly through the day, with
speeds generally 5-10kts. Winds will turn to the northwest and
north tonight as a cold front moves through the region.
Low pressure approaches the Northland this afternoon, with
light rain overspreading the area this evening. Expect a period
of mostly virga, as low levels saturate, with measurable
rainfall at INL by 05/00Z. Rain will expand southward through
the evening hours, to HIB and DLH, by 05/03Z. With rainfall,
cigs will also lower to MVFR/IFR heights with reductions in vis
to 3-4SM through the end of the forecast period. Although MVFR
cigs are expected at BRD and HYR, rainfall should remain north
of those terminals.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
Winds and waves have diminish this morning, with a few gusts at
or less than 20kts. High pressure builds into the region today,
and winds diminish to 10 knots or less today into tonight, with
a slow turn to the southeast and east by tonight. Winds
increase from the northeast overnight and turn northwesterly
early Wednesday in the wake of a cold front. Gusts up to around
20 to 25 knots are expected Wednesday afternoon, which may lead
to conditions hazardous to small craft. Winds diminish Wednesday
evening.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA