Hail in Oklahoma, September 18, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

 - Periods of rain and thunderstorms are expected today and
   tonight, with the best rain chances gradually moving south and
   eastward.

 - Above-normal temperatures through the weekend before
   potentially cooling down on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Scattered showers and storms are expected again this afternoon and
evening. These will be mainly focused around various weak boundaries
in our area, of which the most prominent are one in northwest
Oklahoma (CAMs favor development along this boundary) and one in
southeast Oklahoma. Instability and shear may marginally support a
few strong to severe storms, with wind as the primary hazard.

As the upper trough passes over the area, additional showers (and a
few weak storms) will develop overnight.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Friday may see some lingering showers across southern Oklahoma in
the morning hours, drying out by afternoon. During this
brief lull, temperatures will climb into the 80s to low 90s.

Another wave will approach Saturday, bringing rain chances back to
the area. Similar to previous days, expect scattered coverage, light
QPF, and low potential for a strong storm or too. Warming trend is
expected to continue, though cloud cover and rainfall potential
introduce some uncertainty.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

The upper-level flow pattern becomes more zonal on Sunday. This will
likely encourage stronger return flow and a downslope element to
winds that will bring a dose of summertime temperatures to much of
the area (especially the southwestern quarter of it).
Simultaneously, thunderstorm chances will occur across much of the
area Sunday afternoon as temperatures breach the convective temp.
Storm chances will persist into Monday as the next trough prepares
to eject into the central Plains.

It is this trough that will trigger a cooldown - not toward "fall",
per se, but at least cooler than the rest of the coming week.
Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday look to be in the low to mid
80s across the area. precipitation chances are lower on those days
than most of the rest of the coming week, but at least low chances
for storms will continue along and southeast of I-44.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

While VFR conditions are likely to prevail at all terminals
through the period, continued (and additional) coverage of
scattered rain/thunder will introduce potential for brief
reductions in category. Gusty and erratic winds will also be
possible near thunderstorms through sunset this evening.

Outside of precipitation chance, surface winds will be generally light
and variable with a mixture of low and mid cloud heights expected
through Friday morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  85  69  89 /  60  10  10  30
Hobart OK         63  90  68  92 /  40  20   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  67  92  70  92 /  30  20   0  20
Gage OK           57  84  65  87 /  10   0  10  30
Ponca City OK     61  85  66  87 /  30   0  20  50
Durant OK         68  91  67  92 /  40  30   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
400 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

OKZ048-052-182130-
Atoka OK-Bryan OK-
400 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Bryan
and southwestern Atoka Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 400 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Caney, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Caddo, Caney, and Bentley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3412 9632 3424 9633 3430 9609 3411 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 259DEG 10KT 3419 9625

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
507 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

OKZ048-182230-
Atoka OK-
507 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Atoka
County through 530 PM CDT...

At 507 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Wardville, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chockie and northeastern Atoka Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 9583 3448 9598 3459 9605 3468 9590
      3463 9588 3460 9588 3459 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 248DEG 5KT 3458 9594

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
543 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

OKZ014-182315-
Roger Mills OK-
543 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Roger
Mills County through 615 PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Reydon, moving east-southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Reydon, Sweetwater, and Dempsey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 10000 3570 9974 3542 9985 3542 9999
      3543 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 278DEG 20KT 3562 10001

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
557 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

OKZ012-182330-
Garfield OK-
557 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Garfield
County through 630 PM CDT...

At 556 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Enid, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Enid, Breckenridge, Fairmont, Vance Air Force Base, and North Enid.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 9799 3643 9800 3651 9762 3629 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 266DEG 25KT 3638 9791

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

..speg.