An upper level disturbance approached the area during peak heating on September 18th. This allowed for scattered thunderstorms to move through the area causing sporadic damaging winds and large hail.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
An upper level disturbance approached the area during peak heating on September 18th. This allowed for scattered thunderstorms to move through the area causing sporadic damaging winds and large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 18, 1:50 PM CST, 30 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal (1 of 5) to Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening, with highest confidence along and on either side of the Highway 65 corridor. Wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to the size of half dollars possible. Localized rainfall amounts up to 2-3 inches. - More seasonal temperatures and additional rain chances will occur into the weekend and early next week. While most rain chances will be isolated to scattered, there is potential for at least one day to see more widespread rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Current mid-level water vapor imagery in tandem with RAP analysis depicts a trough/upper-level low hybrid system across the Central and Northern Plains. The closed low is over the northern Plains, with a shortwave extending the trough southward into KS/OK. Associated upper-level low is an occluded surface low pressure system over SD, with a newly developing surface low pressure system in KS, with a cold front extended southward into OK. Ahead of the system, high temperatures have warmed to the upper 80s and lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. The cold front and shortwave will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Slight Risk for severe storms along Highway 65 corridor today: Cooler air aloft from the trough, along with faster winds aloft along the base of the trough has both increased instability and bulk wind shear enough for a more organized threat for severe thunderstorms than recent days. That being said, values are still rather marginal (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE; 15-25 kts deep layer shear). This will be enough for multicell clusters of thunderstorms rather than the single pulse cells we've been seeing the past few days. This storm mode along with the parameters in place points to hazards of 60 mph wind gusts and hail up to quarters to half dollars within the strongest clusters. The 12Z HREF has been in good agreement with isolated to scattered pulse showers and thunderstorms developing across the area after 2 PM (indeed, agitated cumulus and a few radar echoes have been noted as of 215 PM). These would be ongoing through the afternoon and evening with hazards of wind gusts up to 40-60 mph and quarter to half dollar sized hail. CAM members are then in good agreement for a broken line of thunderstorms to develop along the advancing cold front, with a narrow time and spatial window for the greatest coverage and intensity. Currently, this looks to be east of I-49 through the Highway 65 corridor where the Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe weather is currently placed. With this broken line, wind gusts are a greater hazard up to 60 mph. This looks most likely to occur between 4-8 PM, slowly dissipating in intensity after 8 PM. Lingering light showers are then possible across the area, but no severe weather is expected after midnight. Lows then sink into the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Lingering shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend: With the cold front clear through most of the area, coverage of showers and thunderstorms should be much less and confined to the eastern and southern parts of the CWA Friday. The next greater chance of rain and thunderstorms looks to be late Friday night into Saturday morning as the right entrance region of the 300 mb jet dives ESE through the Middle Mississippi River Valley, and the left entrance region of another jet streak slowly enters the Red River Valley. In between these, warm air advection and isentropic upglide within a strengthening low- level jet will occur, which could force a complex of showers and thunderstorms across east Kansas and southwest Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. Severe chances are a bit uncertain with this system. Furthermore, the evolution of this system will determine the extent and behavior of showers and thunderstorm chances Saturday, though with lingering instability and any outflow boundaries, showers and thunderstorms are possible again (15-40% chance). More seasonal temperatures into the weekend and early next week: Following the cold front, more seasonal temperatures are expected to arrive Saturday with highs in the upper 70s across our western area, and in the middle 80s across our eastern area. Lows are still expected to be mild in the lower to middle 60s. These temperatures are expected through Monday before another cold front *may* move through Monday night. Deterministic forecast lows Tuesday and beyond are in the middle 70s with lows in the middle 50s. However, LREF members and ensemble clusters portray a whole wide range of scenarios and uncertainty in the exact weather pattern next week. There seems to be good agreement in a pretty prominent trough dropping through the central CONUS at some point next week, however, the clusters range a lot in timing, shaped, intensity, and how far south it digs. As a result, while deterministic forecast lows are in the middle to upper 70s, they could be as high as the middle 80s (which is still seasonable), or as low as the lower 70s. Additional rain chances will occur next week: The uncertainty in clusters also brings very wide-ranging solutions in terms of rain chances. As a result of the widely differing members, rain chances are broad-brushed at 30-50% chance Monday through Thursday. Deterministic models suggest instability will be present at least through Wednesday, so thunderstorms can be expected with any rainy day. There is potential for at least one day for more widespread rain: Given the large amount of uncertainty, it is possible that some of the days with rain chances are for the most part dry. Many clusters have one solution with widespread rainfall each day Monday through Thursday, but also have a solution with dry weather for each of those days. A lot of these differences come down to the behavior of the prominent trough that is modeled. An earlier arrival will push most of the rain chances toward the beginning of the week. A later arrival will push most of the rain chances toward the middle of the week. Then, a slower progression of the trough would bring the potential for more of a washout-type rain day, while a faster progression would bring more of a severe thunderstorm threat, given the timing of the passage aligns with sufficient instability. Deterministic models have pointed to enough shear with the tough for organized severe weather should the passage align with the greatest instability. All that being said, while there are rain chances everyday, data supports for at least on of the days next week to see more widespread rainfall in the wake of an increasing drought. From a grand ensemble standpoint, the best chance for one of these widespread rainfall days would be sometime between Sunday night and Tuesday evening. Trends will continue to be monitored. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 There is increasing confidence in a broken line of thunderstorms developing somewhere along or east of I-49 after 19Z. For this reason, included a PROB30 at JLN, though it is possible storms develop east of the site. There's a better 60-70% chance for the storms to impact SGF sometime between 22-02Z. These storms may be capable of producing wind gusts up to 50 kts and hail up to the size of quarters, though most storms will produce heavy rain, lightning, and mildly gusty westerly winds. After the storms clear, winds are forecast to become light and southerly, with the 20-40% chance for lingering isolated showers at all TAF sites, though visibility and cigs should stay VFR for the rest of the period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Price
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 253 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-192000- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 253 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Marginal hail risk. Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk. Limited lightning risk. Limited excessive rainfall risk DISCUSSION... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and will continue into the afternoon and evening across the area. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters to half dollars. Frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, with localized amounts up to 2-3 inches. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Additional chances for thunderstorms will occur off an on Friday through Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for southwest Missouri, especially along the Highway 65 corridor. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Price
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
231 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
KSZ073-181945-
Bourbon KS-
231 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BOURBON COUNTY
THROUGH 245 PM CDT...
At 231 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Blue Mound, or 8 miles southwest of Mound City, moving northeast at
25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Mapleton and Xenia.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3804 9505 3804 9477 3790 9496 3802 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 218DEG 21KT 3803 9492
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SoriaThe Springfield radar (KSGF), 23 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:21 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was down due to thunderstorm winds and was blocking the road on state highway mm near Lawrenceburg.
Trees and power poles were down due to thunderstorms in Lamar.
Tree limbs were down due to thunderstorm winds in El Dorado Springs.
Hail to the size of quarters fell three miles north of Sarcoxie.
Thunderstorm winds downed a tree on Old Prospect Road near Selmore.
Thunderstorm winds downed a tree just north of Windyville on State Highway K.
A 72 mph thunderstorm wind gust occurred near Iconium.
Hail to the size of quarters fell in Weaubleau.
Thunderstorm winds down tree limbs east of Billings.
Thunderstorm winds downed a tree which blocked a road north of Billings.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees and tree limbs in the Macks Creek area. Electric company also reported several outages in the area.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees along Highway W west of Macks Creek. One tree fell and damaged a roof of a house. A barn was also destroyed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1287705, 1287706, 1287707, 1287708, 1287709, 1287710, 1287711, 1287712, 1287713, 1287714, 1287715, 1287716.