A strong stacked low pressure system over far eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota led to high winds developing over parts of western and central North Dakota. The highest reported wind gusts of 64 mph occurred at the Turtle Mountain RAWS in Rolette County.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A strong stacked low pressure system over far eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota led to high winds developing over parts of western and central North Dakota. The highest reported wind gusts of 64 mph occurred at the Turtle Mountain RAWS in Rolette County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 3:54 AM CST, 6 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 454 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainy and very windy today, with near-record cold high temperatures in the 40s. - Near to sub-freezing overnight temperatures across western and north central North Dakota tonight, and all but far southwest North Dakota Saturday night. - Rain chances return Sunday through Tuesday, highest southwest (as high as 90 percent) and lowest far north (around 30 percent). - Below normal temperatures expected through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 452 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A strong occluded and stacked low is spinning over the southern Red River Valley early this morning. This continues to bring widespread rain to the western half of the state under the associated deformation zone, but the eastern half of the state has been under the influence of dry-slotting that has been very pronounced on water vapor imagery. Forecast guidance shows the stacked low slowly drifting eastward across northern Minnesota today, which will take the rain showers back into the eastern half of the state and eventually end rain from west to east later this afternoon and evening. The extensive cloud cover and precipitation will keep daytime temperatures mostly in the 40s, which are near record cold values at the major climate sites. Another concern for today is that the very tight pressure gradient extending west from the low and an associated overlaying +50 kt 850 mb jet will continue to promote very windy conditions. Early morning observations in Bowman County have persistently shown sustained speeds of 40 to 45 mph, and a 60 mph gust was reported at an NDAWN site. We have therefore upgraded Bowman County to a High Wind Warning, with near-term guidance favoring winds this strong to continue through at least late morning. The rest of western and central North Dakota remains under a Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT. As the low departs to the east tonight, a surface ridge will begin building into western North Dakota. With clouds favored to clear and winds becoming much lighter, temperatures are likely to fall into the lower 30s across much of the west, where the 25th percentile of the NBM distribution was utilized for our deterministic low temperature forecast. Lows were kept closer to the deterministic NBM elsewhere, and even nudged to the warmer half of the distribution where cloud cover is forecast to linger, which still brings temperatures down into the lower 30s along the international border. We have therefore elected to issue a Freeze Watch for tonight into Saturday morning for western and much of north central North Dakota. Upgrades to either a Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning will be needed later today. Additionally, the surface ridge could promote a favorable setup for fog formation across the west late tonight into Saturday morning, especially given the rainfall amounts of the past few days. The surface ridge axis is forecast to drift eastward across the state on Saturday. This will provide a break from the rain and wind, but temperatures will remain unseasonably cool despite some afternoon sun, with forecast highs ranging from the mid 40s northeast to upper 50s southwest. The eastward progression of the surface ridge is forecast to stall over eastern North Dakota Saturday night, allowing a southeasterly return flow to commence over far western North Dakota. The breezier conditions out west should keep overnight temperatures above freezing and prevent frost formation. But most of central and eastern North Dakota, as well as northwest parts of the state farther away from the Montana border, have at least medium chances for low temperatures Saturday night below freezing. A lighter northeasterly breeze eminating from the Manitoba surface high and an NBM sky cover forecast around 30 to 50 percent do not lend to strong radiational cooling. But even the warmer side of the NBM low temperature distribution for Saturday night brings near to sub-freezing temperatures to a large portion of north and central North Dakota. Frost/Freeze headlines will be necessary again Saturday night, but will hold off issuing anything for now in order to lessen confusion given the freeze/frost concerns for tonight. Another Colorado low type system is forecast to impact the Northern and Central Plains Sunday through Tuesday. Most solutions keep the highest QPF over South Dakota, but global ensembles show high chances for 0.25" and medium chances for 0.5" south of I-94, and higher-membership ensemble clusters show higher QPF threshold probabilities compared to the total ensemble mean. Rain probabilities decrease greatly to the north, but there are still medium chances for at least some measurable rain there over this time period. The NBM brings medium chances for rain into southwest North Dakota as early as Sunday morning, with PoPs increasing from southwest to northeast through Sunday night when they are highest (around 90 percent) in the far southwest. The Canadian surface high pressure, which by Monday morning is forecast to be closer to Hudson Bay, could then exert its influence and keep northern parts of the state relatively drier. All said, this system will not be nearly as prolific of a rain producer as the one currently impacting the region, but localized rain amounts over 1 inch near the South Dakota border are not out of question. A somewhat stagnant synoptic pattern keeps temperatures below normal through mid next week, but a distinct warming trend does begin to emerge in ensembles heading into the holiday weekend that could bring temperatures back closer to normal. The NBM maintains low to medium chances for rain through most of the rest of the week, but other than an emerging signal for a shortwave passage late Thursday, there are no indications of anything noteworthy in global ensemble datasets at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 452 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Rain will continue across the region through this afternoon, with MVFR to IFR visibility reductions at times. The rain should begin diminishing from west to east late this afternoon through the evening. Ceilings are mostly expected to be IFR through this morning. Improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR ceilings is expected in western North Dakota this afternoon and evening, with central North Dakota likely to remain at IFR ceilings through the forecast period. Strong northwest winds with gusts as high as around 40-45 kts will continue through this afternoon and begin to taper off this evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>042-044>048-050-051. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NDZ001>005-009>011-017>019-021-031>033-040-041-043-044. High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NDZ043. && DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 455 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 NDZ043-171000- Bowman- 355 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A High Wind Warning is in effect through early this evening. A Freeze Watch is in effect late tonight. See weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday A Freeze Watch is in effect Saturday morning. See weather.gov/bis for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ001>005-009>011-017>019-021-031>033-040-041-044-171000- Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward- McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope- Hettinger-Adams- 455 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 /355 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Wind Advisory is in effect through early this evening. A Freeze Watch is in effect late tonight. See weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday A Freeze Watch is in effect Saturday morning. See weather.gov/bis for details. Areas of frost and sub-freezing temperatures are possible again Saturday night into Sunday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ012-013-020-022-023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-171000- McHenry-Pierce-Oliver-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh- Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 455 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 /355 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Wind Advisory is in effect through early this evening. See weather.gov/bis for details. Areas of frost could develop late tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Areas of frost are possible Saturday morning, and again Saturday night through Sunday morning when temperatures could fall below freezing. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Hollan
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Bowman AWOS reported wind gusts to 61 mph.
Beach AWOS reported wind gusts to 58 mph.
Bottineau AWOS reported wind gusts to 59 mph.
Turtle Mountain RAWS reported wind gusts to 64 mph.
Sand Creek RAWS reported wind gusts to 61 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1250570, 1250571, 1250572, 1250573, 1250574.