A 500mb shortwave trough moved across the Upper Midwest with height falls across the Quad State during the afternoon and evening of the 16th. The exit region of a strong (125kt) upper level jet was positioned across the area as well.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A 500mb shortwave trough moved across the Upper Midwest with height falls across the Quad State during the afternoon and evening of the 16th. The exit region of a strong (125kt) upper level jet was positioned across the area as well. Low-level winds strengthened during the afternoon to 50kts at 850mb. Following the early AM convection, ample sunshine allowed for a very unstable airmass to develop with CAPE of 3000-4000J/kg with deep layer shear of 65-70kts. Late afternoon, STP peaked at 9 near the Wabash/Ohio River confluence with effective SRH of 300-400m2/s2. Mid-level lapse rates peaked at 8-8.5C/km for much of the Quad State with significant hail parameter of 3-5 mid-afternoon and DCAPE peaking at 1200-1500J/kg. Initial storm formation was discrete with very large hail and tornadoes, with storms becoming more linear later in the evening with the approach of a cold front.
The afternoon supercells produced three tornadoes, one of which was a 16 mile EF-3 track from Stoddard County to Scott County which resulted in 2 fatalities and 10 injuries in Scott County, along with over a dozen homes heavily damaged or destroyed. Both fatalities occurred on Sloanville Drive west of Sandywoods, with those areas receiving the worst of the damage. An EF-1 tornado occurred east of Morley in Scott County, and an EF-2 tornado occurred east of Burfordville in Cape Girardeau County. Numerous hail reports were submitted with the supercell storms including baseball size hail in Arab and tennis ball size hail northwest of Van Buren. Towards the evening hours, straight-line wind damage occurred as the storms took on a more linear structure.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 10:49 AM CST, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1149 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A significant dangerous severe weather outbreak is expected this afternoon into this evening. All severe hazards are in play...including strong/intense, and potentially long tracked tornadoes, widespread and potentially significant damaging wind, and large and damaging hail. The inherent risk of flooding from very heavy rain will be more localized. - More stormy weather returns early next week with severe weather potential again Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 As the atmosphere recovers from early day thunderstorms, all indications are that by mid afternoon, we will again be primed and ready for severe storms to develop. Our thermodynamics remain charged, with 3500-4500 J/KG2 expected ahead of the approaching system. It brings with it the right entrance region of an upper level jet, while the low levels start cranking too...deep layer shear remains largely 50-60 KTS thru the event. The incoming CAM models all paint some discrete development as early as 19 or 20Z, with more elements becoming linear with time thereafter. There is some play between about half of the modeling suggesting an area of low pressure developing with a warm and cold sector on the mesoscale or smaller, while the other half are more discrete with perhaps two line segments moving across the area. STP still goes up to about 7 and with such high CAPE and SRH that is 250-350 m2/s2 on average, we're concerned at the high end potential for significant tornaodes/damaging wind, not to mention the large hail threat. Residual boundaries laid out already or in the pm convective atmosphere may further complicate these layouts, but it appears that regardless of that, or it even muting that somewhat, we'll have an active and very dangerous afternoon- evening to come. Ultimately we may see the convection line out with intense wind gusts in excess of 70 mph as it sweeps across the area by late evening. In addition to the aforementioned hazards, we'll also see an inherent risk of flooding from very heavy rain, but it should be more localized. We get a short-lived pause thereafter, CWA-glancing activity not withstanding, that carries us thru the first half of the weekend, before the pattern turns more active the back half of the weekend and leading into next week. That's when our next best chance of strong storms comes in by/for Day5 (Tuesday), but many elements will have to come together between now and then for us to have higher confidence precision in the 15% blanket SPC has overtop most of the PAH FA for now. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Developing/active convection will offer a potpourri of restrictions to flight terminal forecasts this package, particularly thru 06Z. Strong to potentially severe storms are anticipated at all terminals during the afternoon and into the evening hours, when most restrictions to CIGS/VSBYS will exist, and hail and strong/storm gusty winds are included in the forecast. After 06z, cold fropa should scour clouds out with a look to returning Visual Flight Rules without exemptions by/before Saturday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 1117 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-171000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 1117 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 /1217 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A significant and dangerous severe weather outbreak is still anticipated this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected to form into an intense line of storms late in the afternoon and early this evening. Strong tornadoes, widespread and locally intense damaging winds, and very large hail, will be possible. Very heavy rain may cause localized flooding. Frequent deadly lightning will accompany strong storms as well. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Thunderstorms return to the forecast early next week, with Tuesday offering the next best chance for strong to potentially severe storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is anticipated later today into tonight.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service PADUCAH KY 859 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 KYZ009-012-017-021-022-161500- Calloway-Trigg-Christian-Muhlenberg-Todd- Including the cities of Murray, Cadiz, Hopkinsville, Greenville, and Elkton 859 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...Strong Thunderstorms This Morning... At 859 AM CDT, Paducah radar detected scattered thunderstorms, some strong, across portions of western Kentucky. These storms are producing frequent lightning, heavy rain, and may also have some small hail. The strongest storms that just moved across Calloway county produced pea to dime sized hail in the southern part of the county, according to local officials. In addition, heavy rain may cause localized street and low land flooding.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service PADUCAH KY 215 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 MOZ086-087-100-110-111-162115- Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Stoddard-Scott- Including the cities of Marble Hill, Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Piedmont, Bloomfield, and Sikeston 215 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...Dangerous Storms with Strong Tornadoes Possible this Afternoon... Several dangerous storms capable of producing tornadoes are moving into southeast Missouri. Tornado warnings are in effect and the storms are in a very favorable environment to produce strong tornadoes. Conditions are expected to remain highly favorable for severe weather and tornadoes, potentially strong tornadoes this afternoon into this evening. The current tracks of these dangerous storms would bring them within the vicinity of the following communities: Greenville around 3:00 pm Zalma around 3:20 pm Chaffee around 3:40 pm Cape Girardeau around 4 pm These storms are moving east at nearly 60 mph. If you receive a Tornado Warning for your area act quickly!
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 189 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:32 UTC.
15 hail, 4 thunderstorm wind, 4 tornado, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
Very large hail associated with an eastward moving supercell in Carter County produced 2.5 inch hail on Hwy M northwest of Van Buren and 2 inch hail near the intersection of Hwy U and US-60.
A funnel cloud was spotted near Van Buren.
Multiple quarter size hail reports were received out of Piedmont on the far northern end of a supercell storm.
A photo of ping-pong ball size hail was reported by the public on a broadcast media social media page. Mill Spring was in the heavy rain and hail portion of an eastward tracking supercell.
Tree tops were broken off large trees in Williamsville which was in the hook echo portion of a supercell storm.
Ping pong ball size hail was measured near Puxico as a supercell storm moved eastward through the area.
Hail estimated at up to baseball size was reported in Arab. No damages were noted in this report.
Hail estimated at up to one inch diameter was reported south of Patton.
Hail up to golf ball size was estimated in Advance as a supercell storm progressed eastward through northern Stoddard County.
A 16 mile long EF3 tornado (peak of EF2 in Stoddard County) started in eastern Stoddard County along County Highway Y, approximately 5 miles southeast of Bell City. It removed a roof of a house shortly after touching down and then continued eastward into Scott County. Estimated peak winds for the Stoddard County portion of the tornado were 115mph.
A 16 mile long EF3 tornado started in eastern Stoddard County along County Highway Y, tracking eastward into Scott County. As it crossed Highway 61, it damaged approximately 10 power poles. The worst damage was found in the Sloanville Drive area where numerous homes were heavily damaged or completely destroyed, this included a brick home and several mobile homes. Two fatalities occurred along this|road. Numerous more homes were either significantly damaged or completely destroyed west of I-55 in Sandywoods, with the tornado continuing east to Woodhaven Estates. Dozens of trees were snapped or uprooted. Many outbuildings suffered some degree of damage or were a complete loss. Max width was 200 yards. The tornado lifted just east of Highway O about 3 miles west of Diehlstadt. There were 10 injuries with this tornado as well.
An EF2 tornado, with max winds of 125mph, touched down about 1.5 miles east of Burfordville in Cape Girardeau County. It tracked east for about 1.4 miles before lifting 3 miles east of Burfordville. The worst damage occurred along County Road 363 where a home suffered significant roof damage. Further east along County Road 343 there was an outbuilding with significant damage along with a mobile home that had minor damage. Several trees were uprooted along the path as well. Debris was lofted far enough to be spotted near the intersection of MO-72 and County Road 335.
EM relayed a fire department report of hail measured to nickel size 3 miles west of Fremont.
Golf ball size hail was measured on the south side of Perryville, while multiple dime size hail reports came in near the city center.
A spotter's relative in Morley reported individual hailstones up to golf ball size, with enough hailstones falling for the ground to accumulate to around an inch thick. Hail fell in the leading portion of the supercell storm, ahead of the hook echo.
Golf ball size hail was measured in Kelso on the north end of an eastward propagating supercell.
An EF1 tornado, with max winds of 110mph, touched down approximately 2.5 miles south of Benton in northern Scott County. It was on the ground for 1.3 miles before lifting just west of I-55 about 3.5 miles southeast of Benton. Total destruction of a detached garage/barn occurred along Highway 403. Several trees were snapped or uprooted along with a few other farm buildings being damaged. Max width was 100 yards.
Hail measured to quarter size was reported on County Rd E-2, north of Currentview.
Hail measured to nickel size was reported at Hwy AD in Dexter.
Hail estimated to quarter size and wind gusts estimated to 55mph occurred on Hwy W south of Naylor near the MO-AR state line.
Hail was estimated at 1-2 inches with wind gusts up to 50 mph in Neelyville.
Multiple trees were downed by straight-line winds in Qulin. The highest measured gust in the area was 55mph, measured by a spotter.
Multiple trees were uprooted, while others lost branches, at Southeast Missouri State University campus.
Mesonet site UP918 near Junland.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tornado, Scott | 2025-05-16 | 47 | Male | Mobile/Trailer Home | Direct |
| Tornado, Scott | 2025-05-16 | 73 | Female | Permanent Home | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Missouri, 2025Warnings in Missouri, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1272722, 1272725, 1272730, 1272732, 1272736, 1272836, 1272838, 1272738, 1272837, 1273030, 1273038, 1273019, 1272843, 1272846, 1272853, 1272848, 1273021, 1272855, 1272866, 1272869, 1272873, 1272885, 1272878, 1272882.