A line of thunderstorms developed over western Maryland and eastern West Virginia, then significantly gathered strength as it moved east into the I-95 corridor. Destructive winds, very large hail, and a tornado were observed with some of the most intense storms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms developed over western Maryland and eastern West Virginia, then significantly gathered strength as it moved east into the I-95 corridor. Destructive winds, very large hail, and a tornado were observed with some of the most intense storms. Additional thunderstorms in a weakening but still severe state crossed the Appalachians overnight.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 2:32 PM EST, 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 332 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front is expected to lift through and to the northeast of the region today into late afternoon. A low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes today with a trailing cold front pushing through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for areas generally about a county north of the Interstate 64 corridor and areas north of that into PA until 10 PM this evening. This is in response to a combination of several key features. THe first of which is a remnant outflow boundary that was laid down this morning by a line of severe thunderstorms that passed to our northeast. This boundary is gradually washing out/drifting slowly towards the southeast into a hot and humid airmass, characterized by temperatures well into the 80s and dew points into the 70s. The result of this air mass is extreme instability values, with MLCAPE in the 2000-2500+ J/kg range. Lapse rates are going to continue to steepen into the afternoon in the low- levels, and they are already pretty high for Mid-Atlantic standards (around 7 C/km) in the mid-levels. The second key feature is a remnant MCV that is moving out of the KY/WV region, with ongoing convection moving into western portions of our forecast area. The expectation is that that ongoing MCS will move off towards the northeast, but outflow from this system will reignite convection as it cross the mountains into eastern WV/western MD. The one factor that does lead to some uncertainty is the presence of some pretty substantial westerly flow aloft. Oftentimes, this can squash a convective threat in this region. Guidance is generally leaning towards some development along the aforementioned boundaries however, so perhaps the remnant MCV is enough to overcome these mid-level westerlies. So, leaning more towards convection being able to develop than not. Once it does get going in our area, as mentioned previously, it is going to have a very favorable environment for explosive development and a substantial damaging wind threat into this evening as it drifts east. Additionally, given some very fat CAPE profiles, large hail would also be a substantial threat if more isolated convection is able to develop. This round of storms should move through pretty quickly into this evening, likely clearing the Chesapeake Bay by around 8-10 PM or so. Then most of the area should dry out, though a few lingering showers/storms may hang around if there are any remnant outflows hanging around. Outside of the severe component of all of this, there could be a non-zero flash flooding threat this afternoon/evening as well. Accompanying these threats will be very heavy rainfall rates at times and could occur over areas that had already taken on a lot of rainfall in the past few days. Additionally, there could end up being some training issues along that initial west-east oriented outflow boundary set down this morning. A Flood Watch wasn't considered at this time, largely due to the uncertain nature of the convective evolution this afternoon. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall is also highlighted for our area today for the localized potential for some flash flooding. Another round of severe weather could be on the horizon later this evening into the overnight hours. This is still very uncertain though, and very dependent on yet another MCS developing to our west and tracking in such a way that would impact our area. Since we won't have our daytime heating, the severity could be diminished some, but the humidity, nearby trough, approaching cold front on Saturday could be enough to make it interesting in terms of severe elements overnight. At this time, would feel more confident that this occurs across central/southern VA, but can't be 100 percent certain at this time. This is very much a "wait and see what develops" scenario and will be much more in the way of NOWcasting later today. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will approach and push across the region early in the day Saturday. There had previously been a risk for severe weather during the first half of the day on Saturday. However, this threat has diminished significantly today. Thinking is that the multiple rounds of convection, especially the overnight round (severe or not) should help to kick out any lingering outflow boundaries from the region. The air mass will not have time to reload before the fropa during the morning, thus thinkingany coverage of showers/storms will be very limited. Best chance for any severe weather looks to be off to our south and east, where the fropa won't occur until early-mid afternoon. High temperatures will remain warm with highs in the middle to upper 80s Saturday. The big difference will be a 10+ degree dew point drop, so it will be much less humid. Once the front pushes through the region on Saturday, winds pick up substantially out of the W, then WNW. Wind Advisories will be issued shortly for the high ridges along the Alleghany Front through Saturday afternoon. Winds remain elevated Saturday night into Sunday as well, but the extent of the Wind Advisory is just a bit uncertain at this time. It may need to be extended further in time, but later shifts can re-evaluate that threat. Drier and cooler air will filter in during this window. Highs Sunday will be more likely in the middle 70s and seasonable for mid-May. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The synoptic pattern will remain on the amplified side heading into next week. To start off the work week, the initial system that tracked through the Great Lakes over the weekend will have relocated to coastal New England. At the same time, an anomalous upper ridge centered over the Gulf of America will build northward as the next system sets up over the central U.S. This overall configuration will support a quiet start to the week. It is not until the influence of the upstream trough that a pattern shift ensues. At this point, Wednesday will act as that day of transition which ushers in a more unsettled pattern. Eventually this upper trough passes overhead toward the Thursday into Friday time period next week. The start of the work week will feature the mildest temperatures of the extended forecast period. Multi-ensemble forecast trends show the downtick in temperatures, particularly in the Tuesday through Friday timeframe. While starting off in the mid 70s to low 80s underneath mostly sunny skies, winds shift to mainly easterly leading to an increase in cloud cover by Tuesday. By Wednesday, highs fall down into the mid 60s to low 70s with rain looking likely through the day. Given precipitable water values possibly into the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range, there could easily be some heavy rain signatures. With a number of locations receiving flooding rains earlier this week, there could be some risk of additional flooding given such antecedent conditions in place. Temperatures remain below average through the remainder of the work week as the upper trough passes through. Thursday would present a chance for some residual showers before improvements occur by Friday. This would offer a return to some sunshine before the conclusion of the work week. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening, thus a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through 10 PM. See the near-term section above for more details on the setup. Just know that damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threat. Another round of thunderstorms could arrive late tonight into Saturday morning. This round has the most uncertainty at this point. An MCS moving in from the Ohio Valley may make it into our region late this evening into tonight night. This could be yet another risk for damaging wind gusts, but the timing and certainty of occurrence is still just not quite there yet. So, will hopefully have more details as this moves into the TAF period. There may be a few storms ahead of a frontal passage on Saturday as well, which could also contain gusty winds, but think this will be east of any of our terminals. Once the front passes though, winds increase substantially out of the W at around 20 to 30 knots. This could continue into Sunday, albeit a touch lighter. VFR conditions are expected Sunday into the start of next week as high pressure maintains control across the region. VFR conditions are likely on Monday and Tuesday in response to high pressure across the region. Initial winds will be northwesterly with afternoon gusts to around 20 knots. By Tuesday, expect a shift to northerlies and eventually over to north-northeasterlies by later in the day. Moving to an onshore flow regime may introduce additional clouds into the night. This leads to an unsettled pattern on Wednesday with lengthy restrictions expected. Periods of rain are expected with easterlies gusting to around 15 to 20 knots. && .MARINE... Today's forecast continues to grow increasingly tricky area- wide. There may be some remnant boundaries laying around from this morning's storms, which could interact with Bay/River breezes to fire off convection later this afternoon/evening. Additionally, there may even be an MCS moving towards the region from the west. This in particular is very uncertain, but any of these two scenarios could bring severe thunderstorms to the waters this evening. Will be watching closely, but SMWs will be likely if storms do develop. Another chance for severe weather looks to push through late tonight through early Saturday. Timing and location of yet another MCS approaching from the west is still very uncertain, but conditions will be favorable for damaging wind gusts if this does traverse the mountains and make it to the waters. SMWs would likely also be needed if this feature tracks directly over our area. There may be a few storms ahead of a frontal passage on Saturday as well, which could also contain gusty winds. This should push through rather early on in the day, giving way to drier and windy conditions in its wake. Severe threat with this round has decreased greatly, but best chance would be in the entral/southern Chesapeake Bay waters. SCA conditions likely on Saturday and Sunday as winds gust around 20-25 knots across all the waters. High pressure settles overhead Sunday night into Monday, bringing sub-SCA winds. There may be a brief window of advisory-caliber winds on Monday morning given breezy northwesterlies. Through the day, some occasional upticks are possible before gradients weaken in response to high pressure building to the north. Winds turn more north to easterly on Tuesday ahead of the next weather maker. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Freshwater flooding will continue at Georgetown through this afternoon with the high tide cycle. The site remains in moderate flood stage. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for this threat. Water should recede this evening and drop back below flood stage after the overnight high tide cycle. DC SW Waterfront and Alexandria are going to approach minor during this morning's high tide cycle, so Coastal Flood Advisories were issued in advance of this. They may end up falling just short, but will be very close. Beyond this morning's cycle, anomalies will continue to drop in the coming days, with no real concerns for coastal flooding at this time. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...KLW NEAR TERM...CJL SHORT TERM...CJL LONG TERM...BRO AVIATION...BRO/CJL MARINE...BRO/CJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-171900- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 300 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight River Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Potomac River upstream of Washington DC. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for Georgetown due to freshwater flooding. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the entire area except for Spotsylvania and Cecil County. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary threats. Elsewhere, isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are possible this evening. An isolated instance of flooding may also occur. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Another round of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail is possible Saturday, particularly during the morning. However, confidence in timing and coverage remains low at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters activation may be needed this afternoon into tonight. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- 526-WVZ050>053-055-171900- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 300 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight River Flood Warnings remain in effect for portions of the Potomac, Shenandoah, and Rappahannock basins early today. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of the area near and north of I-66 and US-50. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary threats. Elsewhere, isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are possible this evening. An isolated instance of flooding may also occur. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Another round of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail is possible Saturday, particularly during the morning and mainly along and east of the Blue Ridge. However, confidence in timing and coverage remains low at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into tonight. MDZ501-502-509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-171900- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 300 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of the area along and north of US-50. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary threats. Elsewhere, isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are possible this evening. An isolated instance of flooding may also occur. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into tonight.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
334 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0834 PM Hail Lydia 38.33N 78.49W
05/15/2025 E1.00 inch Greene VA Public
&&
Event Number LWX2504835
BELAKPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
337 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 E Wiley Ford 39.62N 78.76W
05/16/2025 M60 mph Mineral WV AWOS
&&
Event Number LWX2504836
BELAKThe Sterling radar (KLWX), 82 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:51 UTC.
20 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees snapped and power lines blew down from the 3000 block of Headley Road to the 1700 block of Zion Church Road.
A large tree blew down along Jared Square Northeast in Leesburg.
Several trees blew down around Zion Church Road and Fishers Road.
Trees blew down near the intersection of Owl Lane and VA-259 Carpers Pike.
Trees blew down near the intersection of Cedar Hill Road and VA-661 Welltown Road.
Trees blew down onto the roadway near the intersection of Longmarsh Road and VA-632 Crums Church Road.
Trees blew down onto the roadway near the intersection of Summerville Road and Pyletown Road.
Trees blew down into the roadway on northbound VA-704 Harmony Church Road in the vicinity of VA-707 Digges Valley Road.
Numerous trees uprooted and snapped on Hughesville Road just south of Lincoln.
Numerous trees blew down along VA-647 Hampton Road.
Multiple trees blew down on Shadow Lane near VA-647 Hampton Road.
Trees blew down on Pohick Road at Gambrill Road/Gambrill Court.
Trees blew down into the roadway on eastbound VA-620 Braddock Road in the vicinity of VA-733 Glen Park Road.
Multiple trees snapped near the intersection of Franconia Road and Beulah Street.
Numerous trees and wires blew down in the City of Alexandria resulting in widespread power outages.
Half dollar size hail was reported in Bailey's Crossroads.
Trees blew down on southbound George Washington Memorial Parkway at VA-629 Vernon View Drive blocking the entire roadway.
Hundreds of trees and branches blew down on George Washington Memorial Parkway near Morningside Lane, blocking the roadway for three days. One tree fell onto a vehicle, killing the occupant.
Trees blew down near the intersection of Pole Road and Frye Road, including one onto a vehicle killing the occupant.
A wind gust of 60 knots (69 MPH) was measured by the ASOS at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA).
Trees blew down in the 3000 block of Strait Creek Road.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind, Fairfax | 2025-05-16 | 61 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
| Thunderstorm Wind, Fairfax | 2025-05-16 | 27 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1250184, 1250185, 1250186, 1250188, 1250189, 1250190, 1250191, 1250192, 1250193, 1250194, 1250195, 1250197, 1250198, 1250199, 1250200, 1250201, 1250202, 1250203, 1250204, 1250205, 1250206.