New Mexico, 2025Debris Flow in New Mexico, September 18, 2025
September 18, 2025 · NWS ABQ · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Higher moisture lingered across southern New Mexico on September 18th. This higher moisture along with a backdoor front along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains resulted in shower and thunderstorm development across the mountain range and burn scars surrounding Ruidoso during the midday hours.
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- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
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- Heat and drought
- Cold
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- Other
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $10,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Higher moisture lingered across southern New Mexico on September 18th. This higher moisture along with a backdoor front along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains resulted in shower and thunderstorm development across the mountain range and burn scars surrounding Ruidoso during the midday hours. Thunderstorms over the South Fork burn scar intensified during the early afternoon hours resulting in flash flooding and debris flows on and downstream of the burn scar. Impacts were observed as far east as the Ruidoso Downs racetrack. Storms across the Sacramento Mountains tapered off during the mid-to-late afternoon hours with floodwaters and debris flows gradually receding during this time as well.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 18, 11:38 AM MST, 59 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 1050 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and brief heavy downpours will favor central to southern New Mexico this afternoon and evening, shifting to western and central parts of the state on Friday.
- There will be a high risk for burn scar flash flooding over the Ruidoso area today with a moderate risk on Friday.
- Lower forecast confidence beyond this weekend, with the potential for atmospheric moisture to trend down further and the 2025 North American Monsoon to diminish.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 18, 11:38 AM MST, 59 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1238 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1050 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and brief
heavy downpours will favor central to southern New Mexico this
afternoon and evening, shifting to western and central parts of
the state on Friday.
- There will be a high risk for burn scar flash flooding over the
Ruidoso area today with a moderate risk on Friday.
- Lower forecast confidence beyond this weekend, with the
potential for atmospheric moisture to trend down further and
the 2025 North American Monsoon to diminish.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
PWATs are forecast to surge to above the 90th percentile over the
next 24hrs as the remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Mario moves
northeast over the region. Meanwhile, a round of scattered slow-
moving convection is forecast this afternoon and early evening
across southern portions of our area, bringing a locally heavy
rainfall threat to the southern mountains and potential for flash
flooding to the Ruidoso area burn scars where a Flash Flood Watch
is currently in effect. A much more active day is anticipated
across western and central NM Friday, with scattered to numerous
storms that will produce heavy rainfall. We considered a Flash
Flood Watch, but storm motion will be on the uptrend Friday with
500mb winds forecast to increase by 5-10kts over today which
should be sufficient to limit the flood threat to training storms.
The main area of concern for Flash Flooding for Friday is the
Ruidoso area, but will let the next shift take a closer look with
regard to watch issuance. The added cloud cover and rain cooling
will help to keep daytime temperatures below average across much
of central and western NM on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Progressively drier air will be steered over the region through
the weekend, around the upper high centered over northern MX.
As a result, a downtrend in convective coverage is forecast
Saturday with only isolated storms at best on Sunday. The
forecast for early to mid next week is of increasingly lower
forecast confidence given the disparate 12Z medium range model
solutions and even weighting to the various model clusters. The
12Z ECMWF is showing decent run-to-run consistency with an
amplified synoptic pattern and cut-off lows, drying out NM and
bringing a notable cold front through late Mon/Tue. However, the
12Z GFS brings moisture back with a vengeance on Monday as a
Pacific low approaches slowly through Thursday, with good chances
for showers and storms each day. For now, we favor the more
consistent ECMWF solution and our forecast is weighted heavier
toward that scenario.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the
TAF period, except across eastern NM where areas of low stratus
are forecast to redevelop tonight. IFR impacts are likely at KLVS
overnight, but KTCC is forecast to remain VFR overnight with low
probabilities of MVFR conditions. Storms are forecast to focus
across southern NM today and may impact KROW between 23-01Z, but
probabilities are too low to include in TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. Humidity and chances for wetting rain will
ramp up overnight into Friday across central and western NM as the
remnant moisture form Tropical Storm Mario moves over the region.
Moisture will gradually trend down through the weekend and into
early next week, with some warming and drying bringing daytime
temperatures to above average most areas. A backdoor front will
move down the eastern plains on Tuesday or Tuesday night, bringing
some higher humidity and cooler temperatures. The forecast for
early to mid next week is of low forecast confidence, with the
potential for the 2025 North American Monsoon to wind-down.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 55 79 55 81 / 0 30 20 5
Dulce........................... 40 74 42 77 / 0 40 20 20
Cuba............................ 49 73 47 77 / 0 60 30 20
Gallup.......................... 51 77 47 79 / 10 50 30 10
El Morro........................ 52 73 48 75 / 10 70 40 20
Grants.......................... 52 75 48 79 / 10 70 40 20
Quemado......................... 52 74 49 77 / 20 70 40 20
Magdalena....................... 55 73 53 76 / 20 70 40 30
Datil........................... 50 71 48 74 / 20 70 40 30
Reserve......................... 51 78 49 83 / 40 70 30 20
Glenwood........................ 55 81 54 87 / 50 60 30 20
Chama........................... 41 69 41 71 / 0 50 30 40
Los Alamos...................... 53 73 51 74 / 0 50 30 20
Pecos........................... 49 74 49 75 / 5 50 40 20
Cerro/Questa.................... 47 73 46 74 / 0 30 20 20
Red River....................... 38 64 39 65 / 0 30 20 20
Angel Fire...................... 33 68 35 69 / 0 30 20 20
Taos............................ 45 76 45 77 / 0 30 20 20
Mora............................ 43 72 45 73 / 5 40 30 20
Espanola........................ 50 79 51 82 / 0 40 30 10
Santa Fe........................ 53 75 52 76 / 5 50 30 10
Santa Fe Airport................ 51 78 51 79 / 5 50 30 10
Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 79 58 82 / 5 50 40 10
Albuquerque Heights............. 58 81 57 83 / 5 50 30 10
Albuquerque Valley.............. 58 82 56 85 / 5 50 30 10
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 81 58 84 / 5 50 30 10
Belen........................... 56 82 55 84 / 10 50 40 10
Bernalillo...................... 57 82 56 85 / 5 50 30 10
Bosque Farms.................... 55 82 53 84 / 10 50 30 10
Corrales........................ 58 82 57 85 / 5 50 40 10
Los Lunas....................... 57 82 55 84 / 10 50 30 10
Placitas........................ 56 79 55 80 / 5 50 40 10
Rio Rancho...................... 58 81 57 84 / 5 50 30 10
Socorro......................... 59 82 57 86 / 20 60 40 20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 74 50 76 / 5 60 30 10
Tijeras......................... 54 76 52 77 / 5 60 40 10
Edgewood........................ 49 76 48 78 / 5 50 40 10
Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 78 46 79 / 5 50 40 10
Clines Corners.................. 50 74 49 75 / 5 40 40 10
Mountainair..................... 50 75 50 77 / 10 60 40 20
Gran Quivira.................... 50 75 50 77 / 10 60 50 20
Carrizozo....................... 57 77 55 80 / 20 60 60 20
Ruidoso......................... 51 69 52 74 / 20 70 60 30
Capulin......................... 46 75 48 75 / 0 10 20 10
Raton........................... 46 78 47 79 / 0 20 20 20
Springer........................ 47 80 48 82 / 5 20 20 10
Las Vegas....................... 47 74 48 77 / 5 40 40 20
Clayton......................... 53 82 57 82 / 0 5 20 10
Roy............................. 50 78 51 81 / 5 10 30 10
Conchas......................... 55 85 57 87 / 5 10 40 10
Santa Rosa...................... 53 82 55 84 / 10 20 50 10
Tucumcari....................... 53 84 57 85 / 5 10 30 10
Clovis.......................... 58 84 61 87 / 10 10 20 10
Portales........................ 58 85 61 87 / 10 10 20 10
Fort Sumner..................... 57 84 58 88 / 10 20 40 10
Roswell......................... 62 86 62 89 / 20 20 40 10
Picacho......................... 55 79 55 84 / 20 50 50 20
Elk............................. 53 74 53 82 / 20 60 50 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.
&&
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
Debris Flow, Lincoln
- When
- September 18, 12:37 PM MST to 2:30 PM MST
- Where
- Lincoln County, 2.61 mi W of Ruidoso to 0.4 mi SW of Alto
- Cause
- Heavy Rain / Burn Area
- Property damage
- $10,000
- Reported by
- Emergency Manager
- Coordinates
- 33.334, -105.725
Heavy rain from thunderstorms over the South Fork burn scar produced water and debris in Cedar Creek flowing over the bridge at Brady Canyon Road and Ponderosa Drive before moving across Mechem Drive at Brady Canyon Road, shutting down Mechem Drive. Water and debris in Cedar Creek continued downstream moving over the road at Cree Meadows and Country Club Drive and Paradise Canyon Drive at Starlite Road and Hull Road, closing these roads. Video from social media showed floodwaters and debris flows swiftly going around a house along the banks of the Rio Ruidoso at the first bridge on Main Road in the Upper Canyon neighborhood. The Rio Ruidoso was observed flowing over the bridge at Country Club Drive and Eagle Drive resulting in the closure of these two roadways. Finally, the floodwater and debris flow in the Rio Ruidoso overwhelmed culverts under the western part of the Ruidoso Downs racetrack eventually moving across the racetrack itself.
- Debris Flow
- A fast-moving slurry of mud, rock and debris, usually on a slope soaked by heavy rain or stripped by a fire.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Flash Flooding and Flood in California, September 18 to 19, 20251 death · 1 injured · $56,000 · 0.75 in hail · 9 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, September 18, 2025$54,000 · 1 in hail · 12 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, September 18, 20251 in hail · 42 events
- Flash Flooding and Dust Storm in Arizona, September 18, 2025$60,000 · 4 events
- Flash Flooding and Debris Flows in Puerto Rico, September 18 to 22, 20251 injured · $8,000 · 11 events
- Flash Flooding and Flood in Arizona, September 18, 202551 kt wind · 5 events
- Flash Flooding and Debris Flow in U.S. Virgin Islands, September 18, 2025$9,000 · 4 events
- Flooding in South Dakota, September 18 to 20, 20254 events
- Flood and Damaging Winds in California, September 18, 202556 kt wind · 4 events
- Flash Flooding in California, September 18 to 19, 20253 events
- Damaging Winds in Arkansas, September 18, 2025$7,000 · 61 kt wind · 2 events
- Waterspout in South Atlantic Coastal Waters, September 18, 20251 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1284595.