Dust Storm and Damaging Wind in New Mexico, May 2, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
314 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu May 2 2025

 - Temperatures near to slightly below normal for early May

 - Thunderstorm chances each afternoon through Sunday

 - Sunday will be breezy to windy with blowing dust and critical
   fire danger out west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025

A weak upper low will rotate around the larger and more
amplified parent low (close to southern AK) will spin over AZ
tonight and tomorrow. This upper level energy and the cold front
that pushed in this morning that spilled in better moisture to the
area will bring thunderstorm chances today and tomorrow.
Thunderstorms pop up over the area mountains early afternoon
tomorrow with some isolated to scattered across a good portion of
the lowlands in the late afternoon. Coverage will be better for
storms on Saturday as surface moisture is spread out over a large
area. By Sunday, the aforementioned parent low has made its way to
southern California allowing for a good area of diffluence over
the Borderland Sunday afternoon. Storm chances possible again but
much of the area should stay dry. The dryline will retreat through
the day Sunday but could spark off a few storms over the
Sacramentos and far eastern areas. Some of the best instability
looks to be Sunday with ample shear due to the upper low to the
west. Expect breezy and southerly winds Sunday causing blowing
dust and critical fire danger. The upper low spins across AZ and
over the Four Corners Monday afternoon which keeps us mostly dry
with another round of breezy conditions. The area mountains could
see a shower or two. The upper low spins to the north of the area
Tuesday and Wednesday before pushing off to the east Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025

VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with FEW100 and
FEW250 popping up through the afternoon with some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. KTCS has the best shot to see a t-storm
today but all other terminals have a very low chance.
Thunderstorms may create gusty outflow winds up to 30-35KT or so
near thunderstorms. Winds calm after sunset tonight with speeds
generally around 10KT overnight. A secondary push of easterly
winds later tonight which will keep KELP somewhat breezy.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025

A cold front pushed in from the east this morning filtering in
better moisture to the area which will be the juice needed for
thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Thunderstorm chances will span a
large portion of the area tomorrow keeping almost all of the area
out of critical min RHs except Hidalgo and the panhandle of Grant
county. Winds will southeasterly at 10-15 mph during the afternoon
tomorrow becoming very breezy to windy Sunday afternoon. Expect a
southerly to southwesterly wind with speeds 15-30 mph, blowing
dust, and near critical to critical fire danger in the NM bootheel
area. Min RHs generally persist each afternoon Monday through
Thursday in the lowlands with light afternoon breeziness each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  55  80  57  84 /  10  50  50  20
Sierra Blanca            48  75  50  80 /  10  50  60  30
Las Cruces               48  77  49  80 /  20  40  50  20
Alamogordo               46  80  48  78 /  30  40  50  50
Cloudcroft               33  57  34  55 /  30  40  40  70
Truth or Consequences    49  77  50  77 /  40  40  40  40
Silver City              45  72  44  71 /  10  30  20  10
Deming                   50  80  48  81 /  10  30  30  10
Lordsburg                50  80  46  78 /   0  20  10   0
West El Paso Metro       56  79  57  83 /  10  50  50  20
Dell City                47  78  50  82 /   0  30  40  50
Fort Hancock             51  83  53  88 /  10  50  60  20
Loma Linda               48  73  51  77 /  10  50  50  30
Fabens                   53  81  54  86 /  10  50  50  20
Santa Teresa             52  78  52  82 /  10  40  50  20
White Sands HQ           54  80  55  81 /  20  40  50  40
Jornada Range            46  78  46  80 /  30  40  50  40
Hatch                    46  80  48  81 /  20  40  50  30
Columbus                 54  81  51  83 /  10  20  30  10
Orogrande                49  77  51  78 /  20  40  50  40
Mayhill                  37  68  38  66 /  20  40  40  80
Mescalero                38  67  38  66 /  40  40  40  80
Timberon                 34  65  36  64 /  20  40  50  60
Winston                  37  69  38  68 /  30  40  40  30
Hillsboro                45  76  45  76 /  30  40  40  20
Spaceport                44  77  46  78 /  40  40  50  40
Lake Roberts             40  73  41  71 /  20  40  20  20
Hurley                   44  74  42  74 /  10  20  20  10
Cliff                    44  80  43  78 /   0  30  10  10
Mule Creek               43  76  43  72 /   0  20  10  10
Faywood                  47  74  46  73 /  20  30  30  10
Animas                   48  81  44  78 /   0  10   0   0
Hachita                  49  80  44  78 /  10  10  10   0
Antelope Wells           47  81  46  77 /   0  10  10   0
Cloverdale               47  77  46  71 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ.

&&

FORECASTER...37-Slusher