Moist upslope flow, coupled with shortwave pulses in the northwesterly flow aloft, allowed for the development of scattered thunderstorms in Southeast New Mexico. One of these storms produced a 69 mph wind gust near Carlsbad Caverns before it moved into West Texas and dissipated.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Moist upslope flow, coupled with shortwave pulses in the northwesterly flow aloft, allowed for the development of scattered thunderstorms in Southeast New Mexico. One of these storms produced a 69 mph wind gust near Carlsbad Caverns before it moved into West Texas and dissipated.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 12, 3:03 PM MST, 47 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 503 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 502 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 - Low thunderstorm chances (10-20%) persist in the higher terrain of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico through Friday. - A hot and dry weather pattern takes shape this weekend into the middle part of next week with temperatures reaching near to above 100 degrees over much of the area. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Northwesterly flow aloft continues as we lie on the backside of an upper-level trough with ridging building out west. A few disturbances rolling within this pattern along with upsloping southeasterly surface winds will aid in the formation of isolated (10-20%) showers and storms Friday, primarily in the vicinity of the higher terrain and portions of the Permian Basin. A storm or two could become strong to severe within the Permian Basin Friday afternoon, with the main threats being damaging winds and hail. Otherwise, temperatures tonight settle into the mid 60s/70s. Highs Friday afternoon top out in the mid 90s to low 100s. Our hottest spots will be near the Rio Grande, where highs are forecast to reach or exceed 105 degrees. Friday night lows dip into the 70s for most. More heat looks to be the trend heading into the long term forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Models are consistent in the long term showing an upper level ridge over northern Mexico building north into the southwestern United States bringing warmer temperatures and drier conditions to the area. Many locations will approach or exceed 100 degrees starting Saturday and continuing into next week with the only exceptions being the higher elevations west of the Pecos River which should hold to the lower to middle 90s. The ridge will remain in place until the middle of next week when a trough moving across the northern Rockies brings lower heights and slightly cooler temperatures. Rain chances will be almost nil in the extended due to subsidence from the upper ridge. Hennig && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 502 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail next 25 hours in light return flow. Convection will be possible tonight KCNM/KHOB, but chances are too low for a mention attm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 98 73 100 / 0 20 10 0 Carlsbad 69 99 70 102 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 73 98 74 99 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 99 72 100 / 0 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 69 94 70 96 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 66 97 68 98 / 10 10 10 10 Marfa 64 94 65 94 / 10 20 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 71 98 73 99 / 0 10 10 0 Odessa 71 97 73 98 / 0 10 10 0 Wink 71 101 72 102 / 0 10 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...44
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 185 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:49 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The West Texas Mesonet station at Carlsbad Caverns NP measured a 69 mph wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1267601.