High Wind and Heavy Rain in Nevada, March 16 to 17, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
255 AM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A storm system moving into the region will lead to strong winds
  starting this afternoon, then heavy Sierra snowfall tonight
  through Monday.

* Precipitation will be likely in western Nevada, mostly after
  midnight through Monday morning.

* Chilly temperatures Tuesday will be followed by slight warming
  and periods of additional unsettled weather mid-late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* A winter storm is still on track to impact the region starting
  today through Monday. This will lead to periods of strong winds
  areawide, moderate to heavy snow in the Sierra, and some light
  spillover precipitation for western NV. There are no significant
  changes to the latest overnight forecast package. Rain and snow
  showers above 5,500-6,000' will begin to impact Lassen County by
  around 2-4pm. Precipitation with snow above 6,000' will then
  move into the Tahoe area by 6-9pm, then eventually into Mono
  County with snow above 5,500-6,000' by around 2-5am.

* As the main cold front and precipitation band pushes south, we
  are still expecting around a 9-12 hour period of heavier
  precipitation in the Sierra. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
  Weather Advisories are still in effect in the Sierra until
  Monday night. For details on snow levels, snowfall rates, and
  snow-to-liquid ratios, please see the avalanche discussion
  below. And for further details into the warnings and advisories,
  please visit www.weather.gov/rev/winter.

* The best chances for spillover in western NV will be from around
  midnight through around 9am Monday and again possibly Monday
  afternoon. Valley accumulations will be little to none but roads
  may be slick. Additionally, foothill communities (Virginia City,
  Verdi, Galena, etc.) could see 1-3 inches of snow early Monday
  morning. However, the bigger weather impact for western NV will
  be strong, potentially damaging winds though the evening.

* In addition to the heavy Sierra snowfall, there a likely >80%
  chance of max gusts exceeding 60 mph on Sunday for much of
  western NV (north and east of Carson City) as well as Lassen
  County and the Surprise Valley. As such, there are several wind
  products in effect today. Please visit www.weather.gov/rev for
  more details. Wind gusts will remain elevated Monday, with a 70%
  chance of max gusts exceeding 45 mph across western NV. Patches
  of blowing dust are possible both days, downwind of desert
  sinks.

* We get a quick reprieve in the precipitation on Tuesday,
  followed by another shot of rain and higher elevation snow on
  Wednesday, which right now looks to impact the Tahoe area
  northward. Additional chances for precipitation return by the
  end of next week. -McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

* A winter storm arriving today will bring strong S/SW winds
  across all Sierra and western NV terminals. Sustained winds of
  20-30kts with gusts of 45-50kts are likely through the evening.
  Also expect mountain wave turbulence and LLWS as FL100 winds
  increase upwards of 50-60kts by this afternoon.

* Most of today at all local terminals will have VFR conditions.
  Conditions will begin to deteriorate in the Sierra tonight, with
  light rain/snow moving into KTRK/KTVL by around 00-03z. Initial
  snow rates will be less than 1"/hr this evening, but then
  pickup to 1-2"/hr overnight. This will lead to IFR/LIFR
  conditions in precipitation and mountain obscurations. Most of
  today will be clear toward KMMH, with snow holding off until
  09-12z Monday.

* Western NV terminals will be clear most of today. There is a low
  chance for a showers through 03-06z, with better chances for
  rain, possibly turning to snow after midnight. -McKellar

&&

.AVALANCHE...

A strong winter storm will bring moderate to heavy snowfall across
the Sierra starting Sunday afternoon and continuing through
Monday. There are no significant changes to the overnight
forecast.

* SWE, SLR, and Snow Levels: SWE of 1.25-3" for the Tahoe Basin,
  and decreasing as you move southward. Eastern Sierra Avalanche
  Center terrain can expect SWE up to 1.25". SLRs will start
  around 8:1 at the storm's onset, then increase to 10-12:1
  overnight Sunday. Snow levels will start around 6,000' Sunday
  afternoon for the Tahoe Basin, and around 5500-6000' for Mono
  county (late Sunday evening). Snow levels will fluctuate through
  the storm, but start to crash below 5000' around sunrise
  (Tahoe) and early Monday afternoon (Mono).

* Snowfall totals and rates: The highest peaks in the Tahoe Basin
  can expect 1-2' of snow with 6-12" below 7,000'. Totals in Mono
  county will be locally lower, with up to 12" along the highest
  peaks and 2-6" below 8,000'. The heaviest snowfall rates for
  the Tahoe Basin will take place between 11pm Sunday and 5am
  Monday. As for Mono county, that will be slightly delayed, with
  peak rates between 5am and 11am Monday. Rates for all avalanche
  terrain will range between 1-2"/hr.

-Giralte/McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ003>005.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ002.

     Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
     Monday NVZ002.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Monday NVZ001.

CA...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
     evening CAZ070.

     Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Monday
     CAZ071.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ072.

     Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
     Monday CAZ072.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Monday CAZ073.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday CAZ073.

&&