On the afternoon of the 2nd a strong surface low was located over the MN/WI area, with a warm front extending southwest through the OH valley, and a trailing cold front extending SSE through the Ozarks. By 00Z (the evening of the 2nd), a strong convective squall line had developed across the Ohio and Mississippi Valley which slowly continued east through the evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
On the afternoon of the 2nd a strong surface low was located over the MN/WI area, with a warm front extending southwest through the OH valley, and a trailing cold front extending SSE through the Ozarks. By 00Z (the evening of the 2nd), a strong convective squall line had developed across the Ohio and Mississippi Valley which slowly continued east through the evening. By early morning on the 3rd this strong, nocturnal convective squall line continued to move through Eastern Kentucky. As the driving cold front approached SE Kentucky behind this convective line, it stalled for several hours before becoming a warm front around 15Z on the 4th. Between the convective squall line early on the 3rd and the cold front becoming a warm front through the 4th, many areas picked up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall, experienced severe wind gusts, wind damage, and flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 3, 12:55 AM EST, 42 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 155 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - At least northwest parts of eastern Kentucky are favored to see another round of strong to severe storms tonight, with additional chances over most if not all of eastern Kentucky on Thursday into Thursday night. - We are looking for repeated rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms to affect eastern Kentucky through Sunday - especially northwest parts of the forecast area where between 3 and 6 inches of rain will be possible over those several days. This area remains in a Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning. - Temperatures will be warmer than normal into the weekend followed by a sharp cool down to start the new work week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 125 AM EDT THU APR 3 2025 Extremely mild temperatures are in place across eastern Kentucky early this morning. Thermometer readings range from the mid to upper 70s across all but the higher elevations. South to southwest wind winds remain gusty to between 20 and 35 mph. Dew points have risen into the lower/mid 60s west of I-75 and over much of the Bluegrass while dew points remain in the mid/upper 50s at most locations further east. Looking upstream, a potent squall line responsible for many severe thunderstorm and tornado-warned storms over the last several hours stretches from Wilmington, OH southwestward through Frankfort, KY to Bowling Green and beyond. This line of intense thunderstorms is racing out ahead a cold front extending southward from an ~992 mb low over Lake Superior southward across Lake Michigan through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This boundary lies between a 500H trough over the western CONUS and a ridge over the eastern CONUS. An extremely moist air mass (near to exceeding climatological maximums) is feeding into the Commonwealth on a 60-70 kt 850mb warm conveyor belt jet. Though the line is outrunning its upper level support, it has generated a robust cold pool which will continue to propel the the QLCS into eastern Kentucky through sunrise. Compared to locations further to our south west, analyzed instability is more marginal early this morning, approximately 200 to 600 J/kg of MLCAPE (northeast to southwest) and that is offset by 75 to 200 J/kg of MLCIN (north to south). While the instability fields are marginal, effective shear upwards of 55 kts should help the line maintain better than the instability alone would typically suggest. Strong to damaging straight-line winds with bowing line segments appear the main threat, with DCAPE values of 700 to 1,000 J/kg ahead. A brief spinup tornado is also possible with the greatest chance for that in the recently issued Tornado Watch. The weakening QLCS outflow is expected to sink through southeast Kentucky to near the Kentucky/Virginia border by or shortly after 12z. Additional showers and storms are likely to develop along the remnant outflow boundary throughout the daylight hours and could train repeatedly over the same locations. HREF LPMM continues to support a widespread 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain over most of the watch area through 8 PM this evening; however, localized swaths of rainfall nearing 4 inches are depicted in high-end scenarios. The higher end amounts would be sufficient to cause minor and poor drainage flooding and substantial rises on larger creeks, streams, and rivers. In addition the the growing threat for flooding, there will continue to be a threat of severe thunderstorms, primarily in the form of supercells (potentially tornadic) that could develop and ride the remnant outflow boundary from southwest to northeast. The eventual position of the stalled outflow boundary is favored to generally be along or just north of the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY-80 corridor. South of the boundary, temperatures are expected to warm in the lower and middle 80s. North of the outflow boundary, afternoon temperatures are forecast to be much cooler, mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. For tonight and Friday, anticipate that the trough over the western CONUS will continue to amplify with a compensatory strengthening over the ridge over the eastern CONUS. As a result, the boundary over eastern Kentucky will gradually retreat back toward the Ohio River, causing rain chances to wane slowly from south-to-north. Locations near and north of the Mountain Parkway are most favored to receive additional heavy rainfall, where an another widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is likely. Further localized rainfall amounts of 4 inches cannot be ruled out. Tonight's minimum temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 50s near/north of I-64 up the mid 60s near/south of the Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY-80 corridor. Greater amounts of sunshine are anticipated for most locations on Friday with high temperatures forecast to range from the mid 70s north of I-64 to the mid and upper 80s south of the Mountain Parkway. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 515 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025 The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in surprisingly good agreement aloft through the bulk of the long term forecast before some differences of note start to show up concerning a late period trough dropping into the Ohio Valley from the north. They all depict a deep Southwestern trough anchoring the 5h pattern through the rest of the week only slowly grinding east through Saturday while a strong ridge holds firm in the Southeast. This continues to depict a stagnant pattern aloft for most of the country into the first part of the weekend locking in an extended period of fast southwest mid-level flow into Kentucky. This will be able to scour ample moisture northeast from a wide open western Gulf of America for a near continuous flux of moisture into the region. Within the flow, several impulses of concern will ride past eastern Kentucky. One of these, in a series of them, passes through early Friday before another slides by to the north that night into Saturday morning, while a third then crosses towards that evening. By early Sunday, though, a substantial portion of the Southwestern trough finally works east into the Mid-Mississippi Valley helping to shove the blocking Southeast ridge further away from Kentucky. This will allow the pattern to start moving again for our area and also helps to pull a large trough southward from eastern Canada sending 5h height falls through this part of the state during the day, Sunday. Then, with the pattern finally on the move, a stream of energy will settle into the Ohio Valley and press south into the JKL CWA later Monday. This energy swath lingers overhead through early Tuesday before the large northern trough's axis at 5h will finally sweep east of the Ohio Valley - now faster and more dampened in the ECMWF cluster compared to the GFS solutions. This change will turn the mid-level flow more sharply to the northwest bringing a pattern more conducive for drying and colder conditions. The still rather small model spread aloft through Saturday supported using the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids into the weekend then have decided to used it split the difference between the still shifting cluster solutions of the various long range model systems into the first part of next week. Again made some adjustments mainly to add more terrain distinction to the temperatures in the southeast parts of the area each night through Saturday morning. Sensible weather features a warm end to the week for most with the models now depicting the concerning boundary lying across northern parts of the JKL CWA to start the day, Friday. Model consensus has this boundary shifting north on Friday as the next sfc wave consolidates to the southwest of the state. This process looks on track to spare much of eastern Kentucky the heavy rains and stronger storms through the afternoon and into the night. However, this boundary will start to return southeast later Saturday with more strong to possibly severe storms arriving, for at least northwest portions of the area by evening, while the southeast looks to stay dry and very warm. The caveat through Saturday evening is that while the models are in decent agreement that the boundary stays west and north of the bulk of southeast Kentucky, mesoscale dynamics and outflow boundaries could help to push it further south than the models indicate so caution is urged, especially in the Flood Watch areas. Eventually, this system and the frontal structure push through the entire area mainly Sunday morning with a final incident of heavy rain before it departs. We will probably have to consider extending the Flood Watch through the day Sunday if the ECMWF trends holds in having a lingering sfc wave move along the front on Sunday and holding it up by perhaps another 12 hours. Sharply colder weather follows behind the system into Monday and through the start of the next work week. This will bring an air mass change on northerly winds. The coldest air is indicated to arrive later Monday into Tuesday such that scattered frost and some sub freezing temperatures are anticipated for Monday and Tuesday night. The high pressure that moves into the area in the wake of the weekend system will start to shift east on Wednesday but serve to keep the weather dry and cool. Despite the extremeness and climatological rareness of this stalled pattern, most of eastern Kentucky is expected to miss out of the higher impacts owing to the heaviest rains forecasted to stay north of the headwaters of our rivers. Even so, we need to stay vigilant for a possible shift southeast in the heavy rain axis and not let our guard down. However, as it stands now, it seems increasing likely that the western part of the state and confluence region of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers will see the historic impacts from the repeated heavy rains of such extreme durations. Meanwhile many of us here, especially those outside of the flood watch, will mostly note just an unseasonably warm stretch of weather for early April interrupted occasionally by a bout of mainly nocturnal showers and storms. The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of adjusting the PoPs for hourly temporal resolution. Did also include more terrain distinction to the low temperatures through Saturday morning and again for Tuesday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU APR 3 2025 VFR conditions at TAF issuance will deteriorate from northwest to southeast through the remainder of the early morning hours as a weakening line of showers and thunderstorms drops in from the northwest, potentially reaching the Kentucky/Virginia border around or after 12z. This storm line will bring the threat of high winds and potentially a brief spinup tornado. The stronger storms along the line will likely bring at least MVFR/IFR conditions, but could be briefly worse. The line of storms is expected to waver over the area on Thursday before slowly lifting back to the north later in the evening into Thursday night. Periods of MVFR conditions are likely with stronger rounds of convection. Some IFR conditions are possible, but confidence in timing and occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-112-114. && SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...GEERTSON
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 100 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106-108-111-114- 040500- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Elliott-Morgan-Wolfe-Lee- Owsley- 100 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 ...TORNADO WATCH 104 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING... ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...The rest of the night. There is a risk of severe thunderstorms overnight, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat, but also a tornado or two possible. Heavy rainfall is expected overnight, as well. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible at times through Sunday evening. Some of them may be severe, especially Thursday into Thursday night and again Saturday night. Multiple rounds of heavy rain are forecast to affect the area into the upcoming weekend. This will present a risk of flash flooding and eventually river flooding. Frost is possible in some locations late Monday night and Tuesday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. KYZ107-109-112-040500- Johnson-Magoffin-Breathitt- 100 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...The rest of the night. There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms overnight, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Heavy rainfall is also expected overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible at times through Sunday evening. Some of them may be severe, especially Thursday into Thursday night and again Saturday night. Multiple rounds of heavy rain are forecast to affect the area into the upcoming weekend. This will present a risk of flash flooding and eventually river flooding. Frost is possible in some locations late Monday night and Tuesday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance may be needed through Sunday morning for storm and flooding reports. KYZ085-086-116-040500- Whitley-Knox-Clay- 100 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...The rest of the night. There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms toward dawn, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible at times through Sunday evening. Some of them may be severe, especially on Thursday and Thursday night and again Saturday night. Frost is possible in some locations late Monday night and Tuesday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance may be needed through Saturday night for storm reports. KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120-040500- Bell-Harlan-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- 100 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...The rest of the night. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible at times through Sunday evening. Some of them may be severe, especially on Thursday and Thursday night and again Saturday night. Frost is possible in some locations late Monday night and Tuesday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance may be needed through Saturday night for storm reports. HAL/GREIF
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1045 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1218 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Koomer Ridge Camping Gr 37.78N 83.63W
04/02/2025 M50 MPH Wolfe KY Mesonet
Mesonet station KOMK2 Koomer Ridge RAWS.
0215 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 N Prewitt 38.05N 83.98W
04/02/2025 M48 MPH Montgomery KY AWOS
AWOS station KIOB Mount Sterling Apt.
0250 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Preston 38.09N 83.76W
04/02/2025 M46 MPH Bath KY Mesonet
Mesonet station PRST Owingsville 4 S.
1115 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Somerset Pulaski County 37.05N 84.62W
04/02/2025 M45 MPH Pulaski KY AWOS
AWOS station KSME Somerset Apt.
0154 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 ESE London-Corbin Air 37.08N 84.07W
04/02/2025 M45 MPH Laurel KY ASOS
ASOS station KLOZ London-Corbin Apt.
1240 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 E Parnell 36.87N 84.90W
04/02/2025 M44 MPH Wayne KY Mesonet
Mesonet station MONT Monticello 4 NW.
0229 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNW Monticello 36.85N 84.85W
04/02/2025 M44 MPH Wayne KY AWOS
AWOS station KEKQ Monticello Apt.
0355 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 E Dorton 37.28N 82.52W
04/02/2025 M43 MPH Pike KY Mesonet
Mesonet station DORT Pikeville 13 S.
0130 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNE Ebon 37.97N 83.43W
04/02/2025 M43 MPH Morgan KY Mesonet
Mesonet station FW8927 Wellington.
0201 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Somerset Pulaski County 37.05N 84.61W
04/02/2025 M42 MPH Pulaski KY Mesonet
Mesonet station SOMK2 Somerset RAWS.
0415 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SSE Ned 37.39N 83.26W
04/02/2025 M41 MPH Perry KY AWOS
AWOS station KCPF Hazard Apt.
0230 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Index 37.90N 83.27W
04/02/2025 M41 MPH Morgan KY Mesonet
Mesonet station WLBT West Liberty 2 SW.
1121 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 NW Honeybee 36.87N 84.42W
04/02/2025 M41 MPH McCreary KY Mesonet
Mesonet station TT378 Praws 11.
0512 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N NWS Office/Julian C 37.60N 83.32W
04/02/2025 M41 MPH Breathitt KY ASOS
ASOS station KJKL NWS Jackson.
0215 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 WNW Mill Springs 36.96N 84.83W
04/02/2025 M40 MPH Wayne KY Mesonet
Mesonet station FW1232 Monticello.
0315 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SW Sharkey 38.22N 83.58W
04/02/2025 M40 MPH Rowan KY AWOS
AWOS station KSYM Morehead Apt.
0720 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SW Munson 38.22N 83.48W
04/02/2025 M40 MPH Rowan KY Mesonet
Mesonet station MRHD Morehead 4 NE.
1151 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NNW Sidell 37.21N 83.84W
04/02/2025 M40 MPH Clay KY Mesonet
Mesonet station AS097 LONDON.
0315 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N Quicksand 37.54N 83.34W
04/02/2025 M40 MPH Breathitt KY Mesonet
Mesonet station QKSD Jackson 3 SE.
&&
GREIFThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 104 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:37 UTC.
20 thunderstorm wind, 8 flash flood, 2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Fleming County 911 relayed a report of a down tree at the corner of Harn Road and Turner Road.
Emergency manager reported a tree on a house in the 900 block at Furnace Jct, northeast of Ravenna. The home is badly damaged as a result. There are other reports of trees down on roads throughout the county from the original round of storms that moved through at approximately 3:35am.
A large tree was downed at the intersection of Red Lick Road and Coral Avenue in the community of Wisemantown. The tree took some power or phone lines down with it, which are now blocking most of the road.
A tree was reported downed on a house in the 2300 block on Cow Creek Road (house to the east of this address) in the Willow Creek Community.
A barn collapsed in the 900 block on Cane Creek Road (State Hwy 615/N. Bend Road) due to thunderstorm winds.
A house on the south side of Campton Road (just east of the intersection with Deer Trace) suffered considerable roof damage due to severe thunderstorm winds. Multiple trees on the property were also felled. Heavy rain on top of the roof damage eventually caused a partial roof collapse inside the home.
A barn in the 1400 block of South Fork Road received considerable roof damage, along with wood siding being ripped off of one side.
Rowan County 911 Center reported a tree down on the 500 block of Crix Ridge Rd.
Rockcastle 911 Center reported several trees down on South Wilderness Road, 2 miles south of Livingston near the Laurel County line.
The mesonet station (WLBT) located 2 miles SW of West Liberty measured a 64 mph wind gust.
Rockcastle County 911 Center reported a tree down on 100 block of Upper Calloway Loop near the intersection of S. Wilderness Road.
Johnson County 911 Center relayed a report of a down tree on KY-581 in Tutor Key.
Jackson County 911 Center reported a tree down on 5000 block of KY 587, near New Zion Cemetery.
Pulaski County 911 Center reported a tree blocking both lanes near the 1000 block of Pea Ridge Road.
A water rescue was reportedly ongoing at 63 Claude Allen Road, just off the Mountain Parkway, southeast of Salyersville.
Social Media report (with pictures) of water covering Sandfield-Gosneyville Road in the 3500 block, NW of Hazel Green. Pictures taken looking towards Sandfield Community Church.
Rockcastle 911 reported several trees down on South Wilderness Road, 2 miles south of Livingston, near the Laurel County line.
Pictures on social media showed water flowing over part of Centerville Rd, south of Idex and West Liberty.
Clay County Highway Garage reported a tree down in Sextons Creek 1 mile NE from the intersection of KY-577 and KY-1350.
Montgomery County EM reported that East Main St and adjoining streets are under water. They were actively evacuating two apartment complexes at time of report.
Pictures on social media show flood waters overtopping a bridge at the intersection of Highway 30 and 1090, south of the Hendricks Community.
A creek is out of it's banks and inundating homes near Creekside Drive along Abbott Creek near Prestonsburg.
Videos on social media showed a creek out of its banks and water flowing around homes on Middle Fork Davis Branch Rd.
Pictures on social media showed a creek was out of it's banks and water flowing around several homes on Silk Stocking Loop near the community of VanLear.
Social media showed pictures of water flowing across parts of Fairview Loop Road, between Berea and Mt. Vernon.
Pictures on social media show water flowing across Morgue Fork Rd near the community of Sewell.
Social media report (w/ pictures) of snapped tree trunks and scattered downed branches along Eaton Fork Road in Knox County.
Whitley County EM reports localized straight line wind damage along Mosley Branch Road headed towards Knox County, just to the NE of the intersection with 1064. Outbuildings were damaged along with downed trees and power lines.
Scattered tree damage along Mosley Branch Rd in Knox County.
Clay County State Garage reported 2 trees down 1 mile from the US 421-KY 638 intersection on KY 638.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, April 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1273583, 1273559, 1273562, 1273560, 1273592, 1273588, 1273590, 1273557, 1273573, 1273558, 1273570, 1272958, 1273580, 1273575, 1274735, 1273660, 1290430, 1274739, 1273586, 1274745, 1274750, 1274773, 1274875, 1274748, 1274877, 1274881, 1273639, 1273642, 1273652, 1273653.