Tornado in Alabama, April 3, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
349 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Update:
Storms have largely remained to our west this afternoon and we
will maintain a low chance for a few strong/severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and early evening. The consensus among hi-res
models is that this activity will stay to our west, but there are
some recent runs that indicate a few storms could fire or track
far east enough to clip NW AL. If storms do track over NW AL, they
will be in an environment supportive of all modes of severe,
especially large hail.

Previous discussion:
Will continue to see competing airmasses today as an upper trough
tries to push a cold front east of the MS River Valley and high
pressure over the western Atlantic stalls this eastward
progression. This will lead to another day of severe storms and
flooding to our west, and once again we will have to monitor
trends closely just in case storms push east into NW AL. For at
least the next few hours, confidence is pretty high that this
activity will remain largely to our west but would not be
surprised to see a few showers west of I-65 later this morning.
Will have to closely watch satellite trends to monitor any sfc
boundaries and towering cu that may indicate the stronger capping
inversion over the Tennessee Valley could be overcome. Any storms
that are able to form this afternoon will be in an environment
supportive of supercells that could produce all types of severe
hazards - large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Winds will remain breezy today but will begin to lessen later
this afternoon. Southerly flow and clearing skies will allow
temperatures to rise to near record highs, reaching the mid 80s.
Some locations may even rise into the upper 80s, putting the
previous records at risk for being broken.

Record highs today are:

MSL 87 in 1934
HSV 88 in 1999

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Mid to upper level height rises over the southern Atlantic coast
will help push slightly drier air and warmer temperatures into the
area on Friday. The sfc front is expected to be pushed farther to
the west, and overall our rain/thunder chances over NW AL should
decrease. There may be a brief window tomorrow afternoon where
thunderstorms could once again clip our far NW border, but this
remains low confidence. Afternoon highs will rise to the mid to
upper 80s, putting record highs in jeopardy for April 5th. Similar
conditions are forecast for much of Saturday, but rain chances
will increase during the afternoon heading into the evening from
west to east as the aforementioned front finally starts to push
farther east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Higher rain chances should be realized Saturday evening, as the
system to our west finally moves more to the east. A cold front
with this system should move across the area late Saturday night
into Sunday - with a low confidence. The slower timing from the
blends was used this go around. Some of the storms before and with
the frontal passage could become strong to severe. Will stay with
an all modes potential of severe phenomena that could occur. One
item of the frontal passage is that much cooler air will filter
in. The substantial airmass change will help with overall storm
strength. With the airmass change and high rain chances, high
temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid/upper 60s west to
lower 70s east.

Much colder air will filter in Sunday nigh with lows tumbling into
the mid 40s. Highs to start the new work week, Monday will only
rise to around 60. The cold change will continue Mon night with
lows into mid to upper 30s (close to frosting!). Highs on Tuesday
will only rise into the upper 50s. A bit colder Tue night with
lows in the low/mid 30s. This night appears to be the coldest one,
with a good chance for areawide frost and possible freezing
conditions. A warming trend is expected for the mid week, with
highs rising into the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon and evening
before MVFR cigs move in during the early morning hours on
Friday. There is a low chance of a few thunderstorms near KMSL
this afternoon, some of which could be strong. Given the
uncertainty, have left any mention of rain/TSRA out of the TAFs at
this time until confidence becomes greater. Gusty S/SW winds will
persist through the TAF period with gusts as high as 30kts
possible at times.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25