Tornado and Flash Flooding in Texas, April 3 to 5, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
333 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along and north of
  a warm front through Thursday morning across North Texas. Large
  to very large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. The
  tornado threat is low.

- There will be multiple, potentially numerous, rounds of strong
  to severe thunderstorms through Saturday.

- Flooding will be of increasing concern heading into this
  upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1248 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025/
/Through Friday Evening/

A deep upper-level trough will remain anchored over the Desert
Southwest through the short-term forecast period with several
embedded waves in the southwesterly flow aloft keeping unsettled
weather over North and Central Texas through the weekend. A
synoptic front will meander north and south over the region
providing a focus for thunderstorm development through the end of
the week. The front is currently settled from roughly Canton, TX
to Lampasas, TX and will gradually lift northward through the
overnight in response to an increasing southerly low-level jet.
Elevated supercell thunderstorms have started to develop across
portions of the Edwards Plateau and the Big Country near the
center of an 850mb low, but convective initiation will be possible
along and north of the entire warm front through the morning
hours. Most of this activity will remain elevated on the "cool"
side of the surface boundary and rapidly transit east-northeast
through the Thursday morning and exit the region early Thursday
afternoon. Very impressive deep-layer wind shear, relatively steep
mid-level lapse rates, and ~2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will promote a
very large hail threat in any storms that develop (potentially 2+"
in diameter). Localized wind gusts of 55-65 mph will also be
possible. The tornado threat will remain low with this round of
storms and will only materialize with any storms that are able to
ride along the warm front or position themselves on the "warm"
side of the boundary. Many locations across Central Texas and the
Brazos Valley will avoid this round of storms.

Timing the Overnight into Thursday Morning Storms:
West of I-35: 3AM-9AM
Along I-35/DFW Metroplex: 4AM-10AM
East of I-35: 6AM-12PM

Thunderstorms will shift off to the northeast by midday Thursday
with scattered shower activity lingering across northeast Texas
into Thursday afternoon. Cloudy skies will prevail through the day
with locations across North Texas struggling to get out of the 60s
on the cool side of the front (might be a few locations along the
Red River that remain in the upper 50s). A relative lull in
activity is likely through Thursday evening with thunderstorm
chances picking back up across parts of western Central and North
Texas late Thursday night into Friday morning as the low-level jet
ramps back up. Most of this activity looks to remain west and
northwest of the Metroplex through the morning hours.

A more concerning episode of severe weather looks to be setting up
along and east of I-35 Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A
45-55 kt low-level jet is forecast to overlap a destabilizing warm
sector marked by 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE. Low LCLs, impressive
3CAPE, and strong low-level wind shear will promote a threat for a
few tornadoes. The lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere will be
quite moist and may support a messier convective mode that may
ultimately tamper the tornado threat, but continue to remain
weather aware and check back for forecast updates! Where this
threat maximizes will depend on the ultimate position of the
front, but right now the area of greatest concern looks to reside
along and east of the Hwy 34 corridor Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. Storms behind the boundary will still carry a large hail
and damaging wind threat. Heavy rainfall starting late Friday
will also begin our period of prolonged flooding concerns across
portions of northeast Texas into the weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night Onward/

Starting Friday night - A deep Northern Plains-Southern Rockies
upper trough will contain a closed low over the Desert Southwest,
while a Pacific cold front once again stalls over East and Central
Texas. The upper low will advance east into far West Texas by
Saturday morning before turning northeast across Northwest Texas
Saturday afternoon. Surface based storms along the front may start
to weaken late in the evening across our East and Central Texas
counties with the loss of surface CAPE. A large swath of elevated
convection will develop across the rest of the forecast area
Friday night, however, as strong synoptic scale ascent arrives,
thunderstorm development will also be largely driven by a deep
southerly fetch aloft and subsequent isentropic upglide above the
frontal layer. Around 1500 j/kg of elevated CAPE along with 50 to
60 kt of effective shear will support a large hail threat through
the overnight hours into Saturday morning.

Another inch or more of rain will not be uncommon to end the
week, which will maintain a flood threat across mainly eastern
counties through the overnight/Saturday morning hours. Rain
chances will end from west to east Saturday afternoon and evening
as the upper low transitions to an open wave while accelerating
off to the northeast, and the cold front pushes southeast into the
Deep South and the northwest Gulf. A second push of cool air will
arrive Saturday night, making for much cooler and breezy weather
on Sunday with afternoon highs generally in the upper 50s.

The axis of the main upper trough will finally shift east of the
region during the day Sunday, while upper ridging builds in from
the west in its wake. Dry weather and a warming trend will ensue,
with Monday highs in the 60s and Tuesday in the mid and upper 70s.
A fast-moving shortwave in the northwest flow aloft will bring
more clouds and slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday, but at this time it looks like any precipitation
associated with the system will remain northeast of the CWA.

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&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1248 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025/
/06Z TAFs/

Cigs will continue to tank to IFR status tonight into Thursday
morning as a warm front currently laid out from KJDD to roughly
KGRK continues gradually lifting northward. IFR will prevail
through much of the morning and may persist through the entire TAF
period over D10 (30-40% chance). Have leaned a bit more
optimistic, bringing low MVFR back to D10 after 18Z. Nonetheless,
widespread IFR is likely again Thursday night. SCT MVFR cigs are
more likely at KACT this afternoon.

Scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are expected to move
across North Texas later tonight into Thursday morning. VCTS will
run over D10 from 09Z-14Z with TSRA impacts to the terminals
likely in between 10Z-13Z. Reduced visibilities due to rainfall
will be possible. A few storms may also carry large hail and
damaging wind gusts. All thunderstorm activity should push east of
the Metroplex by 14Z-15Z Thursday morning with rain showers
lingering into midday.

ENE winds will gradually shift more northerly through the morning
as the frontal boundary shifts back to the south during the day
Thursday. A few gusts to 15-20 kts are not out of the question
during the morning hours.

Langfeld

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely over the next couple of days over
parts of North and Central Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  60  70  56  62 /  80  60  90 100  70
Waco                81  65  78  58  65 /  50  40  80 100  60
Paris               68  61  76  56  64 /  90  70  90 100  90
Denton              66  54  66  51  61 /  80  70  90 100  70
McKinney            68  59  71  55  62 /  80  60  90 100  80
Dallas              72  61  72  56  64 /  80  60  90 100  70
Terrell             76  64  77  58  66 /  80  50  90 100  80
Corsicana           82  68  81  62  69 /  50  40  80 100  80
Temple              84  67  81  60  69 /  30  40  70 100  50
Mineral Wells       67  54  66  51  61 /  70  70  90 100  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for
TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146.

Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for TXZ094-
095-105>107-123.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
249 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

TXZ100-101-116-030830-
Palo Pinto TX-Young TX-Jack TX-
249 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Young,
western Jack and northwestern Palo Pinto Counties through 330 AM
CDT...

At 248 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Possum Kingdom Lake, or 9 miles southeast of Graham,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bryson around 300 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Jermyn, Antelope,
Jean, and Loving.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3339 9862 3340 9842 3345 9842 3345 9798
      3286 9849 3291 9858 3295 9858 3296 9865
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 211DEG 52KT 3298 9851

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

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