A warm and wet month led to improvement in drought status.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
A warm and wet month led to improvement in drought status.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 10:12 PM CST, 1 hour 48 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1012 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures turn cooler and below normal on Saturday, though mainly above to around normal temperatures are expected Sunday through next week with Wednesday being the next cooler day. - A major storm system moves onto the Central Plains Tuesday. Still a lot of uncertainty but some moderate impacts will be possible IF enough cold air can get into the backside of the system to produce snowfall. At this time that probability is less than 10 percent. Also some potential for higher rainfall amounts, especially northwest IA where the 75th-90th percentile from the ensemble guidance ranges from about 0.75" to 1.25". - Strong northerly winds will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday next week depending upon the track of the system. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Colder air surges south through the night which will lead to some chilly overnight lows, generally in the teens to around 20. Southwest MN and adjacent areas may even see wind chills dip just a touch below zero on Saturday morning. This colder air remains entrenched through the day Saturday as cold surface high pressure gradually shifts east. Highs generally in the 30s. There is just a hint of weak, elevated instability and moisture very late tonight into early Saturday morning mainly in south central SD. This could generate a very skinny area of light snow. Confidence pretty low however as forcing is weak and some question of moisture below the level of forcing so will not include anything in the forecast for this. Surface high pressure moves east of the area Saturday night with strong southerly flow and a resurgence of milder air into the area for Sunday. This will bring temperatures back above normal with highs mainly in the 50s. Elevated fire weather concerns with afternoon RH values of 35 to 40% and wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Other than the Nam which is quite a bit farther north with a low pressure in the Central Plains, models in decent agreement on taking a system south of the area Sunday night into Monday morning. Will leave a 20 percent chance for showers over parts of northwest IA for this system, but this should provide only very minor impacts. There are also hints of a weak wave in western/central SD by Monday morning that could produce some light rainfall. Low pressure will rapidly deepen late Monday night through Tuesday night and wrap up to the south and east of the area. The surface pressure gradient tightens with some models indicating northerly winds around 40 knots around 925mb with 50 knots at 850mb by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Agreement good but not great amongst the various models and members so still some time to see which direction the models trend. For now with a weaker northern stream upper level jet and very strong southern stream jet, an abundance of warm air should surge north which would bring a mainly rain threat to the area. However, if enough cold air funnels south on the west side of the low level inverted trough, snow could become more of a threat. Still a lot of changes to this system day to day so for now only a system to watch and keep a track of trends on. Still many models that keep the main impacts to the south and east of the area. The best chance for rain will be in northwest IA but even there, there is a large spread. Both the GEFS and EC Ensemble have the 50th percentile for KSUX at about 0.10" while the 75th-90th percentile is about 0.75" to 1.25". So the main point is if there is a small shift in the track of this system, there will be large difference in precipitation amounts. A brief cool down to around or below normal expected Wednesday, then back to a bit above normal Thursday and Friday. Another system will move through the area on Thursday, but the main effects from this should remain to the south of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 An area of scattered high MVFR to low VFR ceilings continues to drift southward out of western Minnesota and the higher terrain of the Coteau. Confidence remains rather low on if this cloud layer could reach Sioux Falls in the upcoming hours, so will hint with a lower scattered layer for a few hours overnight. Further west, we'll see a gradual increase in mid-lvl clouds along and west of the James River valley. Winds continue to weaken overnight and will maintain a northerly direction. Saturday will feature scattered mid and high level clouds, with potential for afternoon CU field. Winds remain very light through the afternoon and evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...Dux
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 628 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-020030- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory- Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson- McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme- Yankton-Union- 628 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Precipitation chances return by Tuesday, with a risk for rain and snow. A high degree of uncertainty remains in the forecast, so continue monitoring. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) drought conditions improved to moderate (D1) late month.
Severe (D2) drought conditions improved to moderate (D1) late month.
Severe (D2) drought conditions improved to moderate (D1) late month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1253869, 1253870, 1253871.