Guam, 2025

Tropical Storm and Storm Surge in Guam, July 24 to 27, 2025

July 24 to 27, 2025 · NWS GUM · 4 events in 3 counties and zones

Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) produced peripheral impacts to the Marianas during the period of July 24-27 as the center kept west of the Marianas, with no fatalities or injuries reported, and only minimal damage to shade structures, signage, and a few down trees along public beaches of Saipan, caused by storm surge/tide. Krosa developed within a west-ward moving surface trough in northern Chuuk…

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) produced peripheral impacts to the Marianas during the period of July 24-27 as the center kept west of the Marianas, with no fatalities or injuries reported, and only minimal damage to shade structures, signage, and a few down trees along public beaches of Saipan, caused by storm surge/tide. Krosa developed within a west-ward moving surface trough in northern Chuuk State as monitored as Invest 98W by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on July 21st. Invest 98W passed over Guam during the overnight hours of July 23-24 and would become Tropical Depression 12W west of Guam. TD 12W would continue to intensify into a tropical storm early on July 25th and would maintain a northerly heading, keeping just west of the Marianas island chain. In the wake of Krosa, a monsoon surge wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of Krosa. Krosa would eventually become a typhoon at 7AM ChST July 28th as it left WFO Guam's area of responsibility. The minimum sea-level pressure recorded over land was 1006 mb via the ASOS on Saipan. Peak rainfall of 4.06 inches was also recorded at Saipan over a 48 hour period. The ASOS on Saipan recorded a peak wind of 19 kts (22 mph) with a peak gust of 34 kts (39 mph). Peak storm surge estimate available was at Saipan and was roughly estimated to be around 2 to 3 feet, based on subtracting the predicted astronomical tide height of 1 foot (referenced to mean sea level) from the estimated run-up line height that was based on photos taken after the event.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 8:09 AM UTC, 12 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 8:09 AM UTC, 12 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
609 PM ChST Wed Jul 23 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite and radar imagery are showing scattered to numerous showers
developing across the Marianas as tropical disturbance Invest 98W
approaches. Local buoys and recent altimetry passes are indicating
seas of 5 to 7 feet across the waters.

&&

.Discussion...
As developing tropical disturbance Invest 98W pushes across the
Marianas and then off to the north and west of the islands over the
next couple of days, a strong southwest monsoon surge is expected to
develop across the Marianas in its wake. Heavy rainfall and breezy to
windy conditions are expected across the Marianas through Saturday
with the passage of 98W and the ensuing monsoon surge.

&&

.Marine/Surf...
A passing tropical disturbance 98W and a strong monsoon surge
developing behind it will bring winds and seas hazardous to small
craft. Conditions look to deteriorate across Tinian and Saipan
waters this evening and a Small Craft Advisory is currently in
effect. Conditions will then deteriorate across Guam and Rota waters
Thursday morning and the Small Craft Advisory will begin then. The
Small Craft Advisories are all in effect through Saturday night.
There is a potential for gale force winds to develop beginning Friday
as the disturbance passes off slowly to the northwest and the
southwest flow intensifies, with the better probability across the
Tinian and Saipan waters.

There is currently a moderate risk of rip currents along north, east
and south facing reefs and a low risk for west facing reefs. This is
expected to change as Invest 98W passes through the region. Surf is
expected to rise along east and south facing reefs first, then
transition to south and west facing reefs as 98W pushes to the west,
and the south to southwest monsoon swell intensifies in its wake.
This will force the surf and risk of rip currents to rise along south
and west facing reefs as surf will exceed the 9 foot threshold. Surf
and rip risk look to remain hazardous through much of the weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...
An unsettled pattern caused by a passing tropical disturbance
Invest 98W and the monsoon surge in its wake is likely to produce
heavy showers and thunderstorms, with a flash flooding risk to the
region, for at least the next several days. Total rainfall of 6 to
12 inches with locally higher amounts possible through Saturday
night. A Flood Watch is in effect through Saturday night for the
Marianas.

&&

.Tropical Systems...
The tropical disturbance known as JTWC Invest 98W is currently
approaching the lower Marianas. Satellite and radar imagery are
indicating a slowly developing low-level circulation south and east
of Guam, centered near 12.9N 145.0E. This feature is also apparent
on the MIMIC TPW v2. Invest 98W is forecasted to move west near or
over Guam or Rota as a disorganized system, but is forecasted to
slowly develop as it shifts northward by later Thursday, likely
staying to the west of Tinian and Saipan. JTWC rates Invest 98W as
medium, which means that development into a tropical cyclone is
expected, but beyond 24 hours.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Satellite observations show partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions
across eastern Micronesia. Altimetry and Buoy data show combined
seas between 3 and 5 feet across the region.

A dry pattern has set up across eastern Micronesia with all
forecast zones forecasted to have isolated showers through tomorrow.
By tomorrow night, we start to see a return in the trade winds with
trade-wind convergence leading to scattered showers for Majuro. A
more transient pattern looks to take place late this week and into
the weekend with scattered showers of 30 to 40 PoPs. Early next week
guidance is starting to hint towards the ITCZ ramping up again
bringing increased convection to the region.

Little change was made to the Marine forecast. Combines sea remain
benign between 3 and 5 feet region wide. Seas may brush up to 6 feet
across the RMI sporadically through the week due to fluctuations in
winds.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Two major features remain affecting the region. The first is invest
98W and the second is TS Francisco (10W). Invest 98W is still
stirring up showers near Chuuk. This is expected to diminish over the
next 24 hours. This may leave behind a small northerly swell. Over
near Palau, isolated showers are expected to diminish further as
Francisco, well to the north, moves further away. Yap is the only
outlier here with a increased chance of showers for Friday as the
monsoon tail of 98W may come close enough to increase the shower
potential. Otherwise a return to pleasant weather for all locations
is expected once these two features move away.

Combined seas are estimated to be 3 to 5 feet off of the latest
model guidance. Winds are expected to be gentle to moderate dropping
to light to gentle once these showers disperse. Overall, benign seas
are expected throughout west Micronesia.

&&
.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for GUZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through late Saturday
     night for GUZ001.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM ChST Sunday for
     GUZ001.

MP...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MPZ001>003.

     High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through late Saturday
     night for MPZ001>003.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM ChST Sunday for
     MPZ001>003.

Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM ChST
     Sunday for PMZ151-152.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM ChST Sunday for PMZ153-154.

&&

Marianas: Slagle
East Micronesia: Williams
West Micronesia: Bowsher

Event by event

2 tropical depression, 1 storm surge/tide, 1 tropical storm. Local standard time, as filed.

Tropical Depression, Saipan

When
July 24, 7:00 AM GST to July 27, 7:00 PM GST
Where
Saipan forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS

Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) produced peripheral impacts to the Marianas during the period of July 24-27 as the enter kept west of the Marianas, with no fatalities or injuries reported, and only minimal damage to shade structures, signage, and a few down trees along public beaches of Saipan, caused by storm surge/tide. Krosa developed within a west-ward moving surface trough in northern Chuuk State as monitored as Invest 98W by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on July 21st. Invest 98W passed over Guam during the overnight hours of July 23-24 and would become Tropical Depression 12W west of Guam. TD 12W would continue to intensify into a tropical storm early on July 25th and would maintain a northerly heading, keeping just west of the Marianas island chain. The northern islands of Agrihan, Alamagan, and Pagan are sparsely populated and have no weather observations so weather data if very limited. Based on satellite-derived and TC forecast wind radii, tropical storm winds did encompass the northern islands on July 26-27, possibly reaching up to around 60 mph. Estimated max winds near the center was 65 mph. In the wake of Krosa, a monsoon surge wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of Krosa, prolonging gusty and showery conditions. Krosa would eventually become a typhoon at 7AM ChST July 28th as it left WFO Guam's area of responsibility. Peak storm surge estimate available was at Saipan and was roughly estimated to be around 2 to 3 feet, based on subtracting the predicted astronomical tide height of 1 foot (referenced to mean sea level) from the estimated run-up line height that was based on photos taken after the event. The minimum sea-level pressure recorded over land was 1006 mb via the ASOS on Saipan. Peak rainfall of 4.06 inches was also recorded at Saipan over a 48 hour period. The ASOS on Saipan recorded a peak wind of 19 kts (22 mph) with a peak gust of 34 kts (39 mph). Similar conditions were experienced at nearby Tinian but observations are limited as the airport where obs are taken is part time and a wind sock is used. Rota observations are limited for the same reasons as Tinian. From the observation taken at the airport, peak winds recorded was 16 kt (18 mph) with a peak gust of 19 kt (22 mph).

Storm Surge/Tide, Saipan

When
July 24, 7:00 AM GST to July 27, 7:00 PM GST
Where
Saipan forecast zone
Reported by
Emergency Manager

The greatest storm surge that was reported was along western shores of Saipan. Based on photos taken after the event at Micro Beach, Saipan, storm surge was roughly estimated to be around 2 to 3 feet, based on subtracting the predicted astronomical tide height of 1 foot (referenced to mean sea level) from the estimated run-up line height. The Division of Coastal Resources Management at Saipan reported the following impacts: minimal structural damage to shade structures and signage along public beaches. Notable sand loss at Micro Beach, particularly along the shoreline adjacent to the lifeguard station and reef marker areas. Uprooted and broken trees, some blocking pedestrian walkways. Temporary flooding along Beach Road, especially near low-lying crosswalks and drain outlets.

Tropical Depression, Rota

When
July 24, 7:00 AM GST to July 25, 8:00 AM GST
Where
Rota forecast zone
Reported by
COOP Observer

Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) produced peripheral impacts to the Marianas during the period of July 24-27 as the enter kept west of the Marianas, with no fatalities or injuries reported, and only minimal damage to shade structures, signage, and a few down trees along public beaches of Saipan, caused by storm surge/tide. Krosa developed within a west-ward moving surface trough in northern Chuuk State as monitored as Invest 98W by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on July 21st. Invest 98W passed over Guam during the overnight hours of July 23-24 and would become Tropical Depression 12W west of Guam. TD 12W would continue to intensify into a tropical storm early on July 25th and would maintain a northerly heading, keeping just west of the Marianas island chain. The northern islands of Agrihan, Alamagan, and Pagan are sparsely populated and have no weather observations so weather data if very limited. Based on satellite-derived and TC forecast wind radii, tropical storm winds did encompass the northern islands on July 26-27, possibly reaching up to around 60 mph. Estimated max winds near the center was 65 mph. In the wake of Krosa, a monsoon surge wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of Krosa, prolonging gusty and showery conditions. Krosa would eventually become a typhoon at 7AM ChST July 28th as it left WFO Guam's area of responsibility. Peak storm surge estimate available was at Saipan and was roughly estimated to be around 2 to 3 feet, based on subtracting the predicted astronomical tide height of 1 foot (referenced to mean sea level) from the estimated run-up line height that was based on photos taken after the event. The minimum sea-level pressure recorded over land was 1006 mb via the ASOS on Saipan. Peak rainfall of 4.06 inches was also recorded at Saipan over a 48 hour period. The ASOS on Saipan recorded a peak wind of 19 kts (22 mph) with a peak gust of 34 kts (39 mph). Similar conditions were experienced at nearby Tinian but observations are limited as the airport where obs are taken is part time and a wind sock is used. Rota observations are limited for the same reasons as Tinian. From the observation taken at the airport, peak winds recorded was 16 kt (18 mph) with a peak gust of 19 kt (22 mph).

Tropical Storm, Northern Marianas

When
July 26, 1:00 AM GST to July 27, 5:00 PM GST
Where
Northern Marianas forecast zone
Reported by
Unknown

Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) produced peripheral impacts to the Marianas during the period of July 24-27 as the enter kept west of the Marianas, with no fatalities or injuries reported, and only minimal damage to shade structures, signage, and a few down trees along public beaches of Saipan, caused by storm surge/tide. Krosa developed within a west-ward moving surface trough in northern Chuuk State as monitored as Invest 98W by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on July 21st. Invest 98W passed over Guam during the overnight hours of July 23-24 and would become Tropical Depression 12W west of Guam. TD 12W would continue to intensify into a tropical storm early on July 25th and would maintain a northerly heading, keeping just west of the Marianas island chain. The northern islands of Agrihan, Alamagan, and Pagan are sparsely populated and have no weather observations. Based on satellite-derived and TC forecast wind radii, tropical storm winds did encompass the northern islands on July 26-27, possibly reaching up to around 60 mph. Estimated max winds near the center was 65 mph. In the wake of Krosa, a monsoon surge wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of Krosa, prolonging gusty and showery conditions. . Krosa would eventually become a typhoon at 7AM ChST July 28th as it left WFO Guam's area of responsibility. The closest meteorological data available was at Saipan. At Saipan, peak storm surge was roughly estimated to be around 2 to 3 feet, based on subtracting the predicted astronomical tide height of 1 foot (referenced to mean sea level) from the estimated run-up line height that was based on photos taken after the event. The minimum sea-level pressure recorded over land was 1006 mb via the ASOS on Saipan. Peak rainfall of 4.06 inches was also recorded at Saipan over a 48 hour period. The ASOS on Saipan recorded a peak wind of 19 kts (22 mph) with a peak gust of 34 kts (39 mph). Similar conditions were likely experienced at nearby Tinian but observations are limited as the airport where obs are taken is part time and a wind sock is used. Rota observations are limited for the same reasons as Tinian. From the observation taken at the airport, peak winds recorded was 16 kt (18 mph) with a peak gust of 19 kt (22 mph).

What these are

Tropical Depression
A tropical cyclone with sustained winds below 34 knots.
Storm Surge/Tide
Water pushed ashore above the normal tide by a storm’s winds and low pressure.
Tropical Storm
A tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph).

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Guam in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Guam, July 2025The 2025 hurricane season

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1290030, 1290128, 1290130, 1289851.