Wildfire and High Wind in California, March 30 to 31, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
120 PM PDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Strong winds are expected across the region on Monday
as a powerful spring weather system moves through. Patchy blowing
dust can also be expected. Temperatures will peak today and
tomorrow before cooling through the remainder of the week.
Overall, dry conditions are expected for most of the region
through the week, though a few light showers are possible in the
southern Great Basin at times, and some light snow is possible in
the Sierra Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.

Skies have largely cleared out early this afternoon behind a
quick moving shortwave which moved through this morning. Winds
across the region remain elevated thanks to an enhanced 700mb flow
of 30-40 knots across the region. Strongest winds have been across
the Western Mojave Desert near Barstow, where it's currently
gusting to 46 mph at Barstow-Daggett Airport. A few more isolated
gusts to near 40 mph or higher have been noted in other areas
including Kingman and Desert Rock, though overall wind gusts of
that magnitude have been fairly limited. Breezy conditions will
continue through the afternoon with some increasing high clouds
moving in from the west this evening.

The main show is still expected tomorrow as a deep trough
approaches the Pacific Northwest Coast before settling into the
Great Basin by Tuesday morning. As this occurs, a strong 80-90kt
500mb jet will sag into the southern Sierra and extend east into
southern Nevada. This jet will translate to 50-60 knots of 700mb
cross-barrier flow hitting the Sierra and Spring Mountains in the
evening. Forecast soundings continue to depict a favorable profile
for downslope winds, with a ridgetop level stable layer, very
strong winds through the vertical column reaching as low as 900mb,
and a favorable wind orientation to maximize downslope flow. This
leads to continued high confidence in strong winds across parts
of southern Nevada, and the Owens Valley/Sierra region where a
High Wind Warning has been posted. Strongest winds in this
particular wind event will be focused nearest terrain features,
though waves will tend to propagate eastward in waves, so wind
speeds may pulse up and downwards through the afternoon and
evening. For the Owens Valley, the greatest risk of strong winds
will be along and west of the US-395 corridor and south of Big
Pine. For Las Vegas, strongest winds are most likely across the
western and southern portions of the metro. Within these areas,
gusts over 60 mph will be possible.

Elsewhere, widespread windy conditions will also be expected, just
not quite as intense without the downslope enhancement. Widespread
wind advisories are in effect for Wednesday, and their coverage
has been expanded to include the southern Great Basin and Morongo
Basin/Yucca Valley areas. Winds will gradually sag southward
Monday night to become limited to mainly San Bernardino County
Tuesday where the wind advisories remain valid through Tuesday
night.

Aside from the wind, some light precipitation is expected on
Monday across the Sierra as Pacific moisture within the fast
Pacific flow is intercepted by the topography. Not expecting
especially noteworthy precipitation amounts, but 1-3 inches of
snow will be possible above 7000 feet in the Sierra, and some very
light spillover showers will be possible into the Owens Valley.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

Once the leading edge of the trough pushes through on Tuesday, the
risk for impactful winds shifts to western and southern San
Bernardino County. Places like Barstow and Twentynine Palms have
over a 75% chance of seeing 40+ mph gusts, whereas the rest of the
CWA has generally 50% or less odds. With the trough now firmly over
our region at this point, a cooler airmass will take hold. Forecast
highs on Tuesday are some 8-12 degrees cooler than Monday's, and
around 10 degrees below normal for early April.

Ensemble guidance shows the trough lingering over our area as it
gets reinforced with additional shortwaves coming out of the PacNW.
This will keep temperatures below normal and promote continued
breezy conditions. However, the persistent troughing will limit the
strength of surface pressure gradients and thus winds. Both raw and
bias-corrected probabilistic guidance show low to moderate (20-
50%) probabilities of 40+ mph gusts across the CWA, with the
higher percentages in western/southern San Bernardino County.

Precipitation-wise, still not looking very promising. Best chances
(10-30%) continue to be in the Sierra and southern Great Basin
Tuesday through Thursday. Late in the week, ensemble guidance seem
to be coming into better agreement on the trough's evolution, having
it wrap up into a closed low. Where exactly the center of the low
sets up and how much moisture can get pulled in underneath the cold
air aloft will dictate precipitation chances during this time. Any
precipitation that does develop will likely be showery and more
isolated in nature, generally favoring the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty south
to southwest winds are expected through much of the TAF period at
all Las Vegas terminals. Winds this afternoon will likely gust
over 20KT with a 50% chance for gusts over 25KT, especially after
21Z. Moderate confidence in the wind forecast tonight 03Z-16Z as
it is uncertainty how waves of gusty west winds may transition
through the valley. Current TAF forecast does not capture the
westerly waves of wind scenario- if this were to develop then
winds overnight would vary between periods of west winds gusting
to over 30KT and weaker south-southwest winds. By sunrise, high
confidence that more persistent west-southwest winds gusting to
around 30KT will set up and continue through at least the
afternoon. The strongest winds will be after 21Z when there is at
least a 60% chance for gusts over 35KT. Gusty winds will persist
into the first part of Monday night before diminishing by Tuesday
morning. Strong winds may result in patchy blowing dust at times.
Clouds will remain at or above 20kft and precipitation is not
expected through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Southwest to west winds
gusting 20-30KT are expected this afternoon across the area. The
strongest winds today will be through the KDAG area where west winds
will gust over 35KT at times through this evening. Moderate
confidence that a push of west winds will impact KBIH around 21Z, if
this does not occur then light southeast winds will persist this
afternoon. Tonight, winds will diminish in the Colorado River Valley
to around 10KT after sunset as south to southeast winds develop for
the overnight period. Moderate confidence for KBIH winds to become
east to northeast around 10KT tonight, especially if the west winds
do develop this afternoon. If this does not occur, KBIH will be
light and variable until they increase out of the southeast Monday
morning. West winds will be persist at KDAG though the night though
gusts will drop back to around 25KT after midnight then return to
35KT or more after sunrise Monday. Occasional clouds around 15kft-
20kft are expected at times. Snow will develop on the Sierra crest
but should remain in the terrain and is currently not expected to
spill into the Owens Valley, though CIGs may drop to 8000ft after
16Z Monday morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Nickerson

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