A deep low pressure system (including a surface low and upper level shortwave) was tracking through the Midwest throughout the day on Sunday March 30th, reaching the Lower Great Lakes region by that evening. A strong cold front draped south and southwest from this low pressure center, finally making its way into western Kentucky around midnight on the 31st.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A deep low pressure system (including a surface low and upper level shortwave) was tracking through the Midwest throughout the day on Sunday March 30th, reaching the Lower Great Lakes region by that evening. A strong cold front draped south and southwest from this low pressure center, finally making its way into western Kentucky around midnight on the 31st. By that point, a strong line of convection had developed ahead of the cold front, and was making its way across the central and eastern portion of the state. The Storm Prediction Center had much of western and central KY in an enhanced risk for severe weather for that time period leading up to the event, but expanded the risk eastward during the Day 1 update to include virtually all of Kentucky and points to the north and south. Much of the higher probabilites for hail and tornadoes remained located west of the WFO Jackson, KY County Warning Area, with the exception of winds - which was still a 30% risk. This proved true as the line moved through and produced numerous instances of wind damage across portions of Kentucky, including eastern Kentucky. By the end of the event, 51 tornado reports were made stretching from Michigan to southern Mississippi. A slew of hail reports were also noted along the Mississippi Valley, transitioning to wind reports across much of the Ohio Valley. Damage in Floyd and Pike counties was substantial enough to warrant a NWS Storm Survey, however the conclusions were embedded microbursts of wind within the storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 30, 10:18 PM EST, 54 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1118 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers, and some thunderstorms, are expected into Monday. The greatest coverage for the area as a whole will be from tonight into early Monday morning. - There is an Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms this evening into early Monday. Damaging winds are the main threat, but an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out. - After briefly cooler temperatures Monday night into Tuesday, temperatures return to above normal levels Wednesday into next weekend. - Parts of eastern Kentucky may see another round of strong to severe storms Wednesday night. - There is a strong signal for repeated rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms for the middle to latter parts of next week across parts of the lower and middle Ohio River Valley. It is unclear at this time how much of an increased flooding potential extends into eastern Kentucky. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1118 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025 Convection over central KY has congeal into a line with a history of wind damage upstream. This line remains fairly well organized with SPC mesoanalysis and RAP forecast as the line moves into the CWA has 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE suggesting the line should remain surface based into the CWA. Effective shear of 35 to 45KT on average and western parts of the area effective SRH may reach as high as 200 to 300 m2/s2. 0-3km shear vectors become more parallel to the convection just west of Lake Cumberland at this point and a little more favorably oriented further north in Central KY. Damaging winds will remain the primary threat as the line moves east, but any mergers into the line that may occur could result in a brief spin up. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80 has been issued for the entire CWA through 6 AM EDT on Monday. UPDATE Issued at 845 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025 At present, eastern KY was free of any shower or thunderstorm activity though a line of convection extends from OH and southern IN into parts of western KY down into MO and AR. There remains some uncertainty as to how quickly the northern end of this line may reach the CWA, however, it may arrive as early as 10 to 11 PM near or northwest of I-64 and then later further south and east. Made some adjustments to hourly pops, lowering them from the previous forecast areawide over the next couple of hours, before merging into the higher pops nearer to midnight and into the overnight. As this line of storms arrives it will pose a risk of mainly strong to damaging wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 415 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025 19Z sfc analysis shows a decent pressure gradient between low pressure now entering the western portions of the Ohio Valley and high pressure east of the Appalachians. This is supporting breezy south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph across eastern Kentucky as well as propping up temperatures despite the multiple layers of clouds. It is also helping to surge more moisture into the boundary layer providing the fuel for storms this evening and overnight. Currently, readings are topping out in the low to mid 70s most places while the dewpoints have breached the lower 60s west and are up to the mid 50s in the far east. On radar, scattered activity of mostly showers continue through the area while the biggest storms are pounding locations just northwest of the state closer to the sfc low and its developing, east-bound cold front. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are coming into better agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict weak energy in mid-level southwest flow passing through eastern Kentucky into the evening. This is before the approach of a stronger trough at 5h punches into the Ohio Valley with a core of energy that will strafe northern parts of the state into the first half of the night. This initial trough will send 5h height falls through eastern Kentucky after midnight while fast southwest mid level flow continues. The trailing impulses will then settle the larger trough through the state on Monday - helped along by the placement of the right entrance region of a strong 3h jet streak over our area from the winds in the upper atmosphere racing southwest to northeast through the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes - along with another decent wave of energy crossing the JKL CWA by 00Z Tuesday. This happens in the fast mid level flow that becomes more zonal through the night with ample lingering packets of energy to pass overhead. The, now smaller, model spread aloft supported using the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids through the period. Did make some adjustments mainly to incorporate the newest CAMs guidance into the PoP and thunder grids through the first half of the period. Sensible weather features mainly scattered activity around eastern Kentucky until later in the evening until the kinematics aloft moves closer to our area. This will likely allow some of the instability from the daytime heating to fade, but wind fields will only get better for organized storms through the evening. The sfc trough out ahead of a late arriving cold front is expected to create a QLCS of storms that will drop southeast through eastern Kentucky late this evening into the late night hours. We will continue to need to monitor any discrete cells out ahead of this line for rotation and potential tornados - especially in the locations west of the I-75 and northwest of I-64 where the latest HRRR runs suggest a couple of updraft helicity swaths are possible from west to east through those areas this evening. The main severe threat for the bulk of the area arrives with the linear storms toward late evening in the northwest and spreading southeast during the night. Potentially damaging wind gusts and a possibility for spin-up, brief, tornados will accompany the stronger storms in the line. Generally lighter and steadier showers follow into dawn, held up a bit by a wave moving along the front, for most places before ending from northwest to southeast during the morning and into early afternoon on Monday. This will also bring cooler conditions for the afternoon on westerly winds. The cooling continue into the night where if we would see clearing some frost may be possible - generally just for locations west of I-75. The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of adjusting the PoPs per CAMs timing and placement through Monday afternoon. Did not deviate too far from the NBM for temperatures and dewpoints given the higher moisture content through the bulk of the period followed by steady CAA. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 304 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025 Tuesday morning, patchy frost may be present mainly west of the I-75 corridor. Otherwise, high pressure builds into the area through the day, with dry conditions remaining across Eastern Kentucky up until Wednesday morning. Cold air advection will continue through Tuesday, keeping temperatures seasonable, in the upper 50s to mid 60s from north to south. During the day, a large scale 500-mb trough deepens over western CONUS. From this an upper level low ejects out of The Rockies into the Upper Great Lakes. Winds will likely veer, becoming southerly through Wednesday. Eastern Kentucky will be in the warm sector out ahead of the next approaching system mentioned above. This will lead to continued warm air advecting in and temperatures returning to 10-15 degrees above normal, in the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase through the day with a chance of off and on showers through the day. Heading into the afternoon and evening the attached cold front is modeled to extend from the Ohio Valley down through the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Shower and thunderstorm chances exist for the state, with the SPC having Eastern Kentucky under a 15% a risk of severe weather. Breezy conditions are possible Wednesday, with the NBM guidance showing gusts around 30 mph. LREF 00Z ensemble data continues to have mean wind gust of 40 mph, with the general spread between the 25th and 75th percentile being 35-45 mph. We'll continue to monitor this threat. Deterministic models and ensembles have the front late Wednesday becoming rather stationary over Kentucky and surrounding states through Saturday. With precipitable water consistently modeled between 1 and 1.5 inches each day, flooding could be a possibility. The WPC has highlighted this threat with placing a portion of the area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. For Thursday, showers and thunderstorms continue across Eastern Kentucky. With the lack of a progressing front and persistent rain, the WPC has put the area under a slight risk and marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Current guidance has this stationary boundary further west across Western and Central Kentucky, and surrounding areas, which is why that area is in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall. Temperatures will likely remain 10-15 degrees above the climatological averages, in the upper 70s to low 80s. During the day Thursday, an area of low pressure rides the lee side of a ridge, into the deep trough over Western CONUS. While being slow to propagate downstream, it will eventually be what moves the stationary front away from the state, later Sunday or Monday. With winds currently expected to veer Saturday into Sunday from a southwest wind to a northwest wind, cold air advection may temper temperatures Sunday, rising into the low 60s to upper 60s going north to south. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025 VFR was observed at issuance and VFR is forecast to prevail for the fist several hours of the period. As the night progresses and lower levels moisten further and a cold front arrives toward 12Z, prevailing MVFR should begin to develop in the higher terrain near the KY/VA/TN border area near KI35 and K1A6 as well as from near KSYM to KLOZ and points west. However, some reductions to MVFR or even IFR with wind gusts in excess of 30KT are possible with a leading line or broken line convection arriving as early as 02Z to 04Z at KSYM and then between 03Z and 06Z for KJKL, KSJS, KLOZ, and KSME. MVFR or IFR ceilings should prevail during the least 12 hours of the period near and behind the cold front under showers and thunderstorms, though thunderstorm chances diminish through around 18Z. Winds outside of storms should average south to southwest at 5 to 10KT through 12Z, with some gusts to around 20KT at times. The main cold front will pass between about 12Z and 20Z, with winds becoming west and then northwest at generally 5 to 10KT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1059 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-010300- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- 1059 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible. Some storms may be severe, with damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes as the primary hazards. Heavy rain leading to instances of high water is also possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible Monday morning into the afternoon. A Marginal Risk exists for damaging wind gusts, mainly around or shortly after dawn. Some scattered frost will be possible Monday night, mainly just west of I-75. Thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and persist through Saturday night. Additionally, there is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms from Wednesday evening through Thursday night. There remains a robust signal for repeated rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms to impact parts of the Lower and Middle Ohio River Valley region Wednesday into next weekend. However, it remains unclear how much of an increased flood potential exists for eastern Kentucky at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. JKL
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 65 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:08 UTC.
22 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A report on social media stated a tree was downed on Rice Station Road west of Irvine.
Powerlines were reported to have been blown down at the 600 block of Dry Creek Road in Clearfield.
Powerlines were reported to have blown down at the 2900 block of Dry Creek Road in Clearfield.
A report on social media stated several trees were downed on Cow Creek Road, 2 miles WSW of Nada.
Pulaski County dispatch reported a downed tree on a powerline at the 450 block of Sierra Drive near Burnside.
Pulaski County dispatch reported a tree down near the 10000 block of KY-192 in the Dykes community.
Pulaski County dispatch reported several trees down at the intersection of Malvin Hill Church Road and Jessie Sears Road, off of KY-92 near the Dykes community.
Pulaski County dispatch reported a tree down near the intersection of KY-192 and Providence Road, northwest of Mt Victory.
A report of estimated 60 mph winds, including a video, was posted on social media around 2 miles NNE of the Hollonville community in Wolfe County.
A tree was reported to have been blown down near the intersection of Charlie Sizemore Road (Island Creek-Sizemore Road) and US-421, just north of Manchester.
Perry County dispatch reported utility lines down near the 2700 block of KY-28, along Grapevine creek, east of the Chavies community.
Perry County dispatch reported a tree down on KY-451 (Town Mountain Road), just before the intersection with Messer Branch Road on the southwest side of Hazard.
Broadcast media relayed a report from the public of several trees blown down along and blocking Valley Road, just off KY-7 (Raccoon Road) near the community of Hueysville.
A NWS Storm Survey team was sent out to Floyd County to look at widespread damage that occurred at this location as thunderstorms moved through. The survey team concluded that the damage was in line with straight line winds and not a tornado. Damage was observed along the hillside near Brush Creek at the intersection of KY-550 and KY-850, with several trees uprooted or snapped headed in the northeasterly direction. A residence also received damage at this location ( just north of the intersection), where wind hit the broad side of the barn before peeling the roofing off. Several more trees were snapped and uprooted at this location, including a 300 year old oak tree that sustained damage. Peak winds were likely between 90 and 100 mph at this location.
A social media report stated that trees and powerlines were down on the 120 block of Turner Branch Road in the Eastern community of Floyd County.
Significant damage was observed at the Floyd County Board of Education in the community of Eastern, where wind penetrated steel doors of the gymnasium next to the main building, before escaping through the NW portion of the gymnasium roof, blowing out a substantial section.
Trees and powerlines were reported to have been blown down in the Printer community.
Trees and powerlines were reported to have been blown down in the Beaver Community, along KY-979.
Law enforcement initially reported that a roof was blown off a structure, with additional damage to the second story of the same structure along US-23 between Boldman and Broad Bottom. Debris was reported to be blocking all lanes of US-23. In addition, power lines were also blown down at this location, as well as on nearby Ziegler Road. A NWS Storm Survey team was sent out to the look at the damage. They observed an outer wall having collapsed and significant roof damage sustained at an older office building on the east side of Sunset Drive and just south of US-23. Debris was blown downwind towards US-23. A semi-trailer just north of US-23 was also pivoted by the wind in a similar direction. The team concluded damage was likely due to a microbust of winds in this location.
NWS Storm Survey team noted sporadic tree damage along Red Bird Lane in the Boldman community (south and west of US-23), with additional tree damage having occurred across the Levisa Fork of the Big Sandy River.
Powerlines were reported to have been blown down at the mouth of Long Fork near Virgie.
Storm damage to a roof was reported on social media at the 700 block of Lowes Branch Road in the Mayflower community, north of Pikeville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1290874, 1290824, 1290825, 1290875, 1290853, 1290854, 1290856, 1290855, 1290867, 1290828, 1290864, 1290859, 1290852, 1290879, 1290869, 1290885, 1290829, 1290831, 1290850, 1290891, 1290851, 1290876.