NWS Los Angeles, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 5:44 PM UTC, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 7, 5:44 PM UTC, 1 hour 41 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1044 AM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...07/831 AM.
A warming trend will continue today as high pressure aloft builds
into the Four Corners Region. The hottest temperatures are
expected away from the coast, but a shallow marine layer depth
wedged in place will keep temperatures closer to normal along the
coast. Some cooling is expected for Friday and into the weekend,
but away from the coast, above normal temperatures are expected to
linger.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...07/845 AM.
***UPDATE***
No changes in the forecast with today being the hottest day but
above normal temperatures continuing into next week. The marine
layer has shrunk to under 1000 feet and there were/are areas of
dense fog near the coast this morning. Expecting another couple
degrees at least of warming today which will push highs to close
to 105 in the warmest coastal valleys (ie. western San Fernando)
and downtown LA into the lower 90s. We're right around 4-8 degrees
above normal away from the immediate coast which, while hot, isn't
quite reaching established heat risk criteria, which does factor
in the overnight lows which have been mostly in the 50s and 60s
below 1000 feet elevation. Lows in the 1000-3000 foot range have
been warmer, generally in the low to mid 70s, but afternoon
temperatures were not as hot as the lower elevations.
Forecast looks on track for a couple degrees of cooling the next
couple days.
***From Previous Discussion***
The trough's influence will likely keep onshore flow and a
shallow marine layer depth in place at the surface over the coming
days. Dense fog issues may linger for the next nights and
mornings as a thin marine layer depth will continue. Outside of
the marine layer depth into the valleys, mountains, and desert, a
warming trend will likely peak today. Hot temperatures,
approaching advisory levels, will be the other main story. The
hottest locations will see daytime high temperatures between 100
and 105 degrees this afternoon. Temperatures between 5 and 10
degrees above normal will be common away from the coast, sitting
just shy of heat advisory criteria and about 5 to 10 degrees below
record levels for today.
Outside of the low clouds, mostly sunny skies will likely persist
with periods of scattered high clouds over the region. The latest
high-resolution ensemble members suggest some smoke from the
Gifford Fire shifting to the south today and into tonight. A
milky brown sunshine could be prevalent this afternoon and into
sunset across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties due to
elevated smoke particles from the fire.
Slight cooling for Friday and through the weekend as onshore flow
will increase and bring a degree or two of cooling each day, but
temperatures outside of the marine intrusion will still remain
above normal. Hot temperatures with very little change are
expected across the interior valleys.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...07/313 AM.
The latest forecast ensembles suggest a warmer than normal weather
pattern remaining in place away from the coast. At the earliest,
the most significant cooling may be delayed until Monday or
Tuesday. Ensemble pressure gradients indicates onshore flow
strengthening a bit each day through midweek next week, then the
onshore flow leans toward weakening for next weekend. With
cluster analysis of the 500 mb heights suggesting the ridge
remaining anchored over the Four Corners Region and a trough in
place along the West Coast, it is reasonable to assume that a
warmer air mass will remain in place away from the coast, while
the beaches and immediate coastal locales will remain closer to
normal in onshore flow.
EPS ensemble members do indicate some northerly winds coming into
the equation between Monday and Thursday at KSBA and KSDB. Gusty
Sundowner winds are possible each evening across southern Santa
Barbara County. Through the Interstate 5 Corridor, marginally
gusty northerly winds could develop each night and morning.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1743Z.
At 1703Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 600 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was around 3300 ft with a temperature around
27 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs at KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.
There is a 40% chance for a west wind around 290 deg at 8 kts
between 23Z and 04Z.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KSMX, KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA.
Arrival of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours and minimum flight cat at
times.
Low confidence in TAFs for KLAX, KLGB, and KSMO after 06Z, high
confidence until then. Timing of flight cat changes could be off
by +/- 3 hours and one flight cat. There is a 30-50% chance for
no low clouds, highest chances at KSMO.
KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 06Z, then low confidence
after due to uncertainty in arrival of low clouds. There is a 50%
chance for no low clouds tonight, but if they arrive, there is a
30% chance for cigs 002-004 and vsbys 1-2SM. No significant east
wind component expected.
KBUR...High confidence in TAF.
&&
.MARINE...07/859 AM.
For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in the current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected for all
the outer waters through tonight, and for the outer waters south
of Point Sal through Friday night. Conds are expected to remain
sub advisory over the weekend, followed by moderate chances for
SCA level winds south of Point Sal next week.
For the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, moderate confidence in the
current forecast. SCA level wind gusts are expected this
afternoon through late tonight. This will be followed by benign
conditions through the weekend.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence
in the current forecast. There is a 30% chc of SCA level wind
gusts at times across the western portion of the Santa Barbara
Channel through Sunday, mainly during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Increasing chances for SCA conds are expected
across the SBA channel next week, with the potential to impact
eastern portions. Local gusts to 21 kt are possible each afternoon
and evening near Point Dume and across the San Pedro Channel
through the weekend.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3
AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone
670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
PUBLIC...MW/Hall
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lund/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox