During the morning hours of August 7th, an MCS brought severe wind gusts to portions of northern Missouri.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
During the morning hours of August 7th, an MCS brought severe wind gusts to portions of northern Missouri.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 5:24 AM CST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 624 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms possible (up to a 30% chance) this morning into the afternoon. - Hot and humid conditions are expected through Saturday, with Friday being the hottest day. Triple-digit heat indices are likely (>75% chance) during the afternoon hours in much of the area Friday. - An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected Saturday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 425 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 This morning into the early afternoon, there will once again be a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms as a midlevel shortwave trough moves through the region. Convection-allowing models are struggling once again with the storm evolution through the day, with highly variable output run-to-run and model-to-model. Much of the 00z MPAS guidance appears out to lunch already, with widespread convective development simulated to have begun by now in the mid-Missouri Valley southward through eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Instead, strong convection has initiated much farther east into central/southeastern Iowa. Some isolated/scattered showers are developing farther west along I-80 in Iowa and to the south in eastern Kansas, but it remains rather unclear how strong/widespread this convection will become. With the HRRR/RRFS/MPAS showing such widely varying solutions this morning, this looks very much to be a nowcast-type situation (once again), with potential considerable edits to the forecast through the morning. The general model trend recently has been to back off the potential, keeping coverage of storms relatively sparse in our forecast area. However, given the subtle forcing from the aforementioned vort max, will keep some PoP mention across the area through the morning, especially given development to our north. With any storms that develop, severe- weather chances are low given weak shear and unfavorable time of day. With storms being elevated, layers of subsaturation in the low levels, and reasonably quick storm motions, any threats of heavy rainfall are very limited. The mid- to upper-level high remains over the southwest U.S. with ridging extending through the Plains. Persistent southerly winds along with higher heights (due to the approaching/expanding mid to upper level ridge) will allow temperatures to warm a few more degrees this afternoon. Highs for today are anticipated to reach the low to mid 90s (a few degrees above seasonal averages). However, there is lingering uncertainty with forecast highs owing to potential influence of convection this morning, so confidence is lower than average. As the mid to upper level ridge continues its eastward track into Friday, the ridge axis is expected to move into/through our region. A few weak vort maxima move through the flow early Friday morning that could produce a stray shower/storm, but given the amplified ridging and warming air aloft -- think precipitation potential is pretty low tonight into Friday morning; no mention of precipitation is in the forecast tonight into Friday at this time. With the presence of a deepening surface low to our west/northwest on Friday, southerly winds gusting around 20-25 mph can be expected occasionally through the day. The increased southerly flow combined with the eastward shift of the H850 thermal ridge will allow temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s with dew points in the 70s. Heat indices will likely exceed the triple digits by late morning through the afternoon. Given lingering uncertainty in the forecast prior to this point and in coordination with surrounding offices, held off on heat-advisory issuance for Friday for now. Nevertheless, forecast heat indices near/above 105 F would suggest products will likely be needed; will examine another set of model runs before making heat-headline decisions. Late Friday into Saturday a stout upper level low tracks across the U.S./Canadian border, flattening the broad ridging across the southwestern/central U.S. Multiple shortwaves on the southern periphery of the upper low will be catalysts for daily thunderstorm chances starting Saturday. As the surface front stalls out and becomes more diffuse, multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible Saturday into early next week. With several rounds or thunderstorms possible and PWATs approaching 2", there may be a few chances for heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding. Being this far out, there is uncertainty with the exact amounts and locations for heaviest rainfall. As for temperatures, highs into early next week will range in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Uncertainty also lies with the temperature forecast as multiple chances for thunderstorms could modulate daytime heating through this period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period. Winds will remain out of the south with occasional gusts to around 20 kts through the day. Winds will diurnally weaken later this evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Collier
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0506 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-081006- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 0506 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on potential weather hazards. .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms possible (up to a 30% chance) this morning into the afternoon. - Hot and humid conditions are expected through Saturday, with Friday being the hottest day. Triple-digit heat indices are likely (>75% chance) during the afternoon hours in much of the area Friday. - An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected Saturday through early next week.
The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 130 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:59 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees uprooted just south of the Iowa state line along US Highway 65 north of Mercer.
Wires down and widespread power outages in northern Mercer County.
Damage to a structure along US Highway 65 along with a snapped power pole.
Large tree limbs downed in Newtown due to thunderstorm wind gusts.
Tree limbs reported downed in Harris from thunderstorm winds.
Estimated wind gusts up to 65 mph about 3 miles northwest of Milan.
Estimated 60 mph wind gusts just north of Galt.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1271109, 1271110, 1271117, 1271112, 1271113, 1271114, 1271115.