A surface front draped across northeast Florida combined with very high moisture and lift under an upper-level trough produced heavy, localized flooding rainfall.
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The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A surface front draped across northeast Florida combined with very high moisture and lift under an upper-level trough produced heavy, localized flooding rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 6:20 AM EST, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 720 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)... Frontal boundary extends from the FL panhandle ENE to the SE GA coast where some convergent showers and embedded thunder persist early this morning, producing some pockets of locally heavy rain 1-2 inches. These showers will sink south and east into the waters as the front meanders a little southwards to the Fl/GA state line. Inland, conditions are dry with mostly clear skies as a few mid and high level clouds linger before gradually thinning out. Low stratus will expand across the GA coast and inland to US82 northwards as high pressure wedges from the NE states into the lee side of the southern appalachians. Temperatures in the low/mid 70s observed inland with upper 70s along the coast will hold through dawn. A mid to upper level trough extending south along the spine of the appalachian mountains to the Fl panhandle will shift its axis eastward to near the GA coast later today as Atlantic ridge remains closer to Bermuda. At the surface, high pressure will be anchored NE of the area with the frontal boundary staying across NE FL with east to NE onshore flow today. Some morning showers will be along the front offshore and move west towards the JAX beaches to Fernandina beach. Midday, Atlantic seabreeze will progress onshore and kick off scattered showers and T'storms as it interacts with the St Johns river/lake breezes with coverage of T'storms becoming more numerous as outflows and Atlantic seabreeze continue pushing WSW well inland before merging with the Gulf seabreeze near I-75 in NE FL. Trough will keep cooler than average mid level temperatures above and create sufficiently steep mid level lapse rates to support higher wind gust potential from wet downbursts in isolated strong to severe pulse T'storms where Storm mergers and outflows converge. Above average moisture will be along the frontal boundary across NE FL (PWATS 2.0-2.25 inches) and support numerous to widespread showers for most of the area south of US84 into NE FL. The low level flow from the ENE will be countered by mid and high level SW flow aloft, creating very slow storm motions that will support a localized flood risk this afternoon as rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour may cause concerns over urban and low lying and flood prone locations. The onshore flow will keep highs in the upper 80s along and north of I-10 with low 90s south of I-10 and low to mid 90s over north central FL south of the frontal boundary. Tonight, most convection should end inland after 10 PM with debris clouds thinning after midnight. Offshore showers may redevelop along the frontal boundary across the NE FL waters. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s at the coast with light NE winds overnight. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday night)... On Friday, onshore flow between wedged ridge to the north and coastal troughing well offshore enhance convergence along a weakening frontal zone. This flow regime will prompt a shift in the corridor of highest diurnal thunderstorm coverage toward inland areas along I-75 corridor. Afternoon and evening convection will be strongest along the sea breeze mergers across NE FL where additional interaction with the lingering frontal zone may lead to instances of strong or marginally severe wet downbursts, up to 60 mph. Waning convection is expected with the loss of daytime heating, however, a dulling inverted trough making inroads toward the coast may instigate additional shower and isolated storms into the beaches through the late evening and potentially overnight hours. For Saturday, the coastal trough will phase with the old frontal zone and shift northward through the morning and afternoon hours. Between the sea breeze influences in addition to the renewed and lifting frontal zone, numerous to widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected through out the day Saturday, beginning as early as 9 AM at the coast. Combination of the broad frontal zone, abundant cloud cover, and widespread rain. Temperatures should trend below normal or close to normal, with highs in the mid/upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Given the placement of the stalled frontal zone Friday, there may be some low stratus and perhaps patchy fog during morning hours. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday through next Thursday)... Wet pattern continues with onshore flow driving highest storm coverage inland along the Gulf and Atlc converging sea breezes. There could be compounding flood risk due to multiple days of hit- and-miss heavy downpours. Spatially confidence is too low to be specific of any particular area of concern but the I-75 corridor in generally may be at a low-end risk of excessive rain Sunday and Monday. Around Tuesday next week, deeply stacked ridging will build across FL increasing daily max temps into the mid 90s inland and low 90s at the coast. Increased subsidence and some slightly drier air aloft will trend PoPs down starting by Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 716 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 A nearly stationary frontal zone will linger across the area this period. This boundary will continue to help focus diurnally driven convection. Showers and thunderstorms will develop later this morning, and increase in coverage during the afternoon. This activity will decrease in coverage during evening. With the front providing convergence, showers will remain possible through much of the night. Restrictions are expected in and near showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds possible. && .MARINE... A stalled front will extend across the waters with high pressure to the northeast. A coastal trough will form east of the waters later today. A weak low may form along the coastal trough before lifting north and east into the Atlantic waters Friday into the weekend. Onshore northeast flow will continue into early next week as the low moves away from the region. Rip Currents: Moderate Rip Current risk continues today and Friday due to onshore flow with wave heights of 2-4 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 87 71 87 72 / 50 20 70 30 SSI 87 77 86 77 / 60 50 90 70 JAX 88 74 88 74 / 80 50 90 60 SGJ 89 77 88 77 / 80 60 90 60 GNV 91 74 89 74 / 90 50 90 30 OCF 92 74 89 74 / 90 50 100 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A Weatherstem site in Jacksonville Beach reported 3.38 inches of rain. The heaviest rainfall was from around 9 am to 11 am.
Street and lawn flooding was observed near the Baptist hospital in Jacksonville Beach. Cars were still able to drive through streets without stalling.
NWS employee reported street flooding about 6 inches deep along Hawkes Island Drive.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1282892, 1282890, 1282891.