A Gulf Low developed along the southeast Texas coast and tracked northeastward into southern and central Mississippi and Alabama on January 9-10, 2025. The Mid-South remained on the cold side of the low resulting in heavy snowfall across most of the Mid-South.
Every event with a place to put it; 10 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A Gulf Low developed along the southeast Texas coast and tracked northeastward into southern and central Mississippi and Alabama on January 9-10, 2025. The Mid-South remained on the cold side of the low resulting in heavy snowfall across most of the Mid-South. A warm nose did creep into parts of north Mississippi resulting in a period of heavy sleet. Snow and sleet totals generally ranged from 2 to 6 inches across the Mid-South with locally higher amounts. The greatest snow totals were found in the Memphis Metropolitan area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 9, 11:23 PM CST, 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1123 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
A significant winter storm will impact the Midsouth starting
tonight. A winter storm warning is in effect starting at 6 pm
central standard time for all counties. Areas north of
Mississippi are likely to receive at least 5 inches of
accumulating sleet and snow. Portions of north Mississippi are
expected to receive up to 2 inches of snow and a tenth of an inch
of freezing rain. Accumulating precipitation is expected to end
by midnight Saturday. Cold temperatures will continue through the
remainder of the forecast with lows dropping into the 20s at night
and dry weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
Water vapor imagery currently depicts a strong, amplified upper trough
over the central CONUS. To its east, a strong belt of zonal and
diffluent winds are beginning to approach the Midsouth. At the
surface, a low has developed over the Gulf Coast which will track
east through tomorrow. Moisture advection will overrun the cold
airmass over the Midsouth, producing all means of winter
precipitation. Precipitation associated with this system will
reach our region tonight, bringing significant impacts from snow,
sleet, and freezing rain through Saturday in every corner of the
CWA.
One of the biggest questions up until this point has been where
the warm nose is able to produce sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Now
that we are well within the range of hi- res guidance, a more
sound conclusion can begin to be drawn regarding the evolution of
this transition zone. HREF/HRRR/RAP soundings all display a
similarly dry boundary layer tonight due to the mixing of
dewpoints today. Lower-res guidance continues to keep the
transition zone south of the Mississippi/Tennessee border and
similarly dry low level profiles. Therefore, it is expected that
as upper diffluence and high RH air starts producing
precipitation, evaporative cooling will bring portions of this
layer to subfreezing temperatures. With these trends in mind, the
previous conceptual model of a sharp rain and snow line has
shifted towards a large area of sleet accumulation in north
Mississippi. Sporadic areas where evaporative cooling is shallower
are likely to see light freezing rain accumulations up to the
Mississippi/Tennessee border. Otherwise, to the north of this
line, significant snowfall accumulations are expected.
In terms of accumulations, a south to north gradient will exist in
snow and sleet with higher amounts in the northern portions of the
region and lower in the south. A sharp cutoff of 4 or more inches
will likely exist within the transition zone, which looks to be
most likely along the Mississippi/Tennessee border. Areas to the
south of this line could see up to 2 inches of snow/sleet and up
to .1 inches of ice. Areas north of this line could see anywhere
from 5 to 8 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts in any
banding. Along the line, confidence in exact amounts is lower, but
anywhere from 3 - 5 inches are possible. These values are in line
with current hi-res and long-range guidance. Accumulating
precipitation should end by midnight Saturday with the possibility
of a few lingering flurries. Another hazard not often mentioned is
the potential for refreezing of melted snow back into ice for
several nights after the event, creating difficult driving hazards
even after precipitation ends.
The rest of the forecast after Saturday is cold and dry as high
pressure begins to build in. Overnight temperatures will drop
below freezing into the 20s and possibly 10s multiple times next
week. Highs are expected to climb into the 30s. Colder
temperatures are most likely where snowpack exists after
tomorrows storm.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
KTUP area will have the trickiest forecast as precipitation should
start out as sleet followed by a period of snow, sleet or freezing
rain by early Friday morning. Precipitation should change over to
rain by late Friday morning before ending in the afternoon. At
the other TAF sites, mainly snow is expected through Friday
afternoon. Some brief periods of snow mixed with sleet are
possible. Current VFR ceilings will lower to LIFR levels as early
as late Friday morning. Winds will be mainly from the east around
5 knots overnight then gradually shift to the northeast on Friday.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Friday night for ARZ009-
018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Friday night for MOZ113-
115.
MS...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Friday night for
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Friday night for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...ARSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Three to four inches of snowfall observed across Craighead County.
Four to six inches of snowfall, with pockets up to eight inches, observed across the county.
Four to five inches of snowfall observed across Clay county.
Three to six inches of snowfall observed across Cross County.
Three to five inches of snowfall observed across Cross County.
Four to six inches of snowfall observed across the county.
Up to eight inches of snowfall observed across the county.
Three to six inches of snowfall observed across the county.
Five to seven inches of snowfall observed across Crittenden County.
Two to a little over four inches of snow observed across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, January 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1232793, 1232799, 1232792, 1232795, 1232796, 1232798, 1232800, 1232801, 1232794, 1232797.