Winter Storm in Alaska, February 13 to 14, 2025

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2025

.SHORT TERM...The dry and cold pattern that the panhandle has been
subject to for an extended period will finally come to an end this
weekend. The first taste of this was the encroachment of a marine
layer which helped to moderate overnight low temperatures in many
areas overnight before beginning to thin out. A front approaching
the panhandle Thursday night will stall along the outer coast, with
a band of moderate to heavy snow set to impact Yakutat. A winter
storm warning is in effect from 9 pm tonight through 9 pm Friday
night, with the heaviest snowfall rates expected early Friday
morning into the early afternoon hours. Snowfall rates are then
expected to begin to slacken late Friday night into Saturday for
Yakutat and the surrounding area. The primary forecast challenge
remains the location of heaviest banding of snow. While guidance
is in fairly good agreement on the amount of precipitation, if it
shifts slightly west, then snow totals could be significantly
impacted and lower than currently forecast.

Elsewhere across the panhandle, outer coastal communities will see a
chance of snow or mixed showers with minor accumulations from
this stalled front while communities further inland can expect
flurries as moisture struggles to saturate the boundary layer
through the day Friday. Outflow winds will pick up and remain
elevated through the day Friday, particularly the Taku and Stikine
Inlets, with gusty winds continuing for Skagway. For downtown
Juneau and Douglas, some gusty winds are expected to mix down to
the surface through Thursday afternoon with a reprieve overnight
and rebound Friday afternoon. The stalled front will slowly
weaken before being replaced by another low making its way into
the southern gulf late Friday into Saturday. For more information
on what that entails for the panhandle, see the long term
discussion.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday to Wednesday/...

Key Messages:
-Pattern change coming this weekend.
-The clear sky, dry, and cold weather will be replaced with
 clouds, rain and snow, and warmer than normal temps.
-Troughing in the gulf would give the panhandle an active weather
 pattern.
-While the pattern is looking active, the precip amounts aren't
 looking to be much so snowfall amounts and rain amounts would
 have minimal impacts.

Details: 500mb troughing with the parent low in the west gulf would
mean small, quick-moving, weak surface lows would track south to
north through the east gulf. These lows will be a challenge to pin
down because deterministic models would simulate these lows
differently. So the fine details of the forecast will need to be
worked on as we get closer.

But the big picture idea is warmer air moves north into the
panhandle this weekend. This warmer air would raise max temps to the
30s and 40s by Monday, and that continues well into the week. Min
temps would warm to the 30s by Monday night, with temps like that
continuing well into the week.

The warmer air aloft would also transition any snow or rain/snow to
just rain for most of the panhandle by Monday afternoon. Any snow
amounts at the start of the change, so Saturday, would be minor with
mainly 1-3 inches expected over 24 hours. The precip would move in
from the south and spread northward.

&&

.AVIATION...Ceiling heights vary from MVFR up to VFR with mostly mid
level to upper level cloud deck moving over. Potential for snow
increases overnight especially along the outer coast. Areas that do
develop snow will also see a drop in VIS during that time. LLWS is
also expected to increase as the system bringing the snow to the
area moves closer to the panhandle. LLWS / snow will mainly be along
the outer coast but flurries may move further inland as we head into
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...Inner Channels: Outflow winds strengthen as a front
approaches and stalls along the outer coast. Winds will reach
strong breeze to near gale force, particularly out of Taiya and
Taku Inlet Thursday night. North/south oriented channels such as
Chatham and Clarence will reach moderate to fresh breeze.

Outer Coastal Waters: Winds strengthen to gale force in many areas
as the front approaches, with wave heights approaching 20 ft
Thursday night for northern outer coastal waters, and 9 - 11 ft
for far southern outer coastal waters. Wave heights will build
significantly Friday and into Saturday in the southern gulf and
southern outer coastal waters reaching up to 25 ft in some areas
with a developing ESE swell.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Friday
     for AKZ317.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ317.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-663-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-035-053-641>643-
     661-662.

&&

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...PRB
MARINE...STJ

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