NWS Riverton, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 14, 3:45 AM MST, 4 hours 15 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Dec 14, 3:45 AM MST, 4 hours 15 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
345 AM MST Sat Dec 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heavy snow across the western mountains tonight through Sunday.
Expect hazardous travel across mountain passes.
- Strong to high wind across portions of the Wind Corridor tonight.
- Another weaker trough will bring snow to the west and strong winds
to the Wind Corridor Monday night into Tuesday.
- Strong area of high pressure builds by late-week and looks to
dominate the weather pattern through Christmas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM MST Sat Dec 14 2024
A longwave trough will push into western WY by Noon today,
bringing heavy snow to the west and strong winds to the Wind
Corridor. Because of the varying impacts and locations, will
split this portion of the discussion into two parts: Snow and
Wind.
Snow will begin across the western mountains between 10 AM and Noon
today with the onset of the trough. Snow will be fairly steady
across the Tetons through tonight, with snowfall rates generally 0.5
to 1 inch per hour. Confidence is high (>95%) in Warning amounts
(12+ inches) across the Tetons and southwest Yellowstone Park
(Pitchstone Plateau). Confidence is a bit lower in the Jackson
Valley, however. Let me explain why. With the onset of the trough,
winds will be southwesterly, which can help to funnel snow into the
valley, and upslope conditions along the terrain features throughout
the valley are possible. The lower confidence stems from the
duration of this southwest flow. Winds will shift and become more
westerly (downsloping off the Tetons) at some point this evening.
When this occurs, snowfall rates across the valley will drop and
will increase across the west slopes of the Tetons.
Snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 feet will be common across the Tetons,
with locally up to 30 inches across favored peaks (90% confidence).
Other western mountain ranges including the west slopes of the Wind
River Mountains towards Togwotee Pass, and the Salt and Wyoming
Ranges will see generally 8 to 16 inches (80% confidence). Across
Yellowstone, highest amounts will be in the southwest (Pitchstone
Plateau) with up to 18 to 24 inches possible (90% confidence).
Across the rest of the Park, amounts will generally increase from
north to south with 1 to 3 inches around Mammoth to 6 to 10 around
Old Faithful (80% confidence).
Looking at the Jackson Hole Valley specifically, the 25th to 75th
percentile range is 4 to 6 inches. However, extending the period of
southwest flow or SLRs slightly higher than expected could result in
much higher amounts. For Jackson itself, there is a 20% chance of 8+
inches and a 5% chance of 10+ inches with this event. There is less
spread on the lower end of the range, with a >95% probability of >3
inches. That means there is a better chance of over 10 inches than
there is less than 3 inches for Jackson.
I do not want to move on from the snow discussion without mentioning
a few other locations that could see snow with this event. The upper
Green River Basin (Pinedale, Bondurant) could see 3 to 6 inches,
locally higher in the foothills due to upslope effects. Towards Big
Piney and Farson, a few rounds of snow showers could bring 1 to 2
inches. Star Valley will generally see amounts 2 to 4 inches, with
higher amounts (locally up to 6 or 8 inches if upslope effects in SW
flow sets up for a longer period of time) towards the northern part
of the valley (Alpine) (40% confidence). As the trough moves across
areas east of the Divide on Sunday, the Bighorns will get their
chance at some snow, with 4 to 6 inches across most of the range, up
to 6 to 12 in northern portions of the western slopes possible (60%
confidence). A few lower elevations on the west side of the Bighorn
Basin (near Tensleep) and portions of Johnson and western Natrona
Counties could see some light snow Sunday afternoon and evening, but
amounts should stay under 1 inch.
The other part of this event will be the wind. With the approaching
trough, the gradient will tighten significantly today and tonight.
Coupled with the tightening gradient, we also will get the jet
overhead (though better jet energy will stay to the south over
northern CO). This will push 40-50kts down to 700mb, and likely to
the surface overnight. We have >90% confidence that Casper, and even
better confidence on the south side of Casper (Outer Drive), will
see 60+ mph winds for at least several hours tonight, and thus have
upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning. With the tight gradient,
even though winds will shift from southwest to less favorable
westerly flow during the day Sunday, it is expected that wind gusts
will remain in the 50 to 55 mph range, up to 60 mph gusts, so have
extended the Warning to 00Z Monday (5 PM Sunday evening). Muddy Gap,
Fales Rock, and other favored areas along that zone could also see
50 to 60 mph gusts tonight through much of the day Sunday.
There is less confidence in high wind around South Pass, however,
several high-res models, namely the HIRESWFV3 and HRRR, indicate a
period of possible downsloping winds for South Pass, but also the
Lander Foothills between 10 PM and 3 AM tonight. This is further
evidenced in the NAM 700mb wind during that time period, as there
seems to be a 50 to 55kt feature in the 700 mph flow setting up
along the southern Wind River range during that time. Did not have
enough confidence (30%) to issue any high wind highlights, but
certainly will be something to watch over the next few high-res
model runs. As soon as winds become westerly (rather than
southwesterly) this feature looks to quickly cut off and winds will
drop off quickly.
The trough will exit the region pretty quickly by Sunday evening
with winds decreasing and snow ending around sunset. A shortwave
ridge will build for Monday, but another trough will be close on the
heels of today's trough. The next trough, similarly to this one will
be progressive with westerly flow, but also similarly to this one,
does look to bring a quick shot of moderate to heavy snow to the
west and strong winds along the wind corridor with some jet energy
and tight gradient enhancing the winds. There is not as much
moisture with this next trough, however, and jet influence/gradient
do not look to be as strong. At this time, expecting similar set-up
but lesser impacts compared to the trough this weekend.
After that trough exits Tuesday night, all extended range models
build high pressure across the west. This ridge looks to be strong
for this time of year, and will keep quiet weather across the region
through next weekend, and likely (50% confidence) through Christmas.
With the ridge, expect much above normal temperatures to return by
the end of next week and stick around with minimal to no precip
chances.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM MST Sat Dec 14 2024
VFR conditions at all TAF sites to begin the period. Mid level
ceilings west of the Divide as winds remain light less than
10kts. Light snow will push in to JAC by 18Z, and 20Z for
RKS/BPI/PNA. MVFR ceilings and visibility expected with snow on
station as a prevailing through much of the remainder of the
period. LAMP data indicates possible IFR conditions at PNA/BPI
after 00Z. Dry conditions expected east of the Divide with mid
level ceilings around 10kft. Winds look to increase by 02-05Z
as the gradient strengthens ahead of FROPA towards the end of
the period. CPR will be strongest with warning level winds up to
50kts as LND will see downsloping gusts between 05-08Z up to
40kts. Otherwise, gusts up to 25kts at all other locations
likely during this time frame east of the Divide. JAC will see
the increased gusts towards the end of the period after 10Z.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST
Sunday for WYZ001-013.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST
Sunday for WYZ012-014-024.
High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Sunday
for WYZ020.
&&
DISCUSSION...Hensley
AVIATION...Lowe