Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across central and east-central Wisconsin near a semi-stationary boundary during the early afternoon hours on Friday (8/16). The strongest storm produced damaging winds across central Wisconsin.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across central and east-central Wisconsin near a semi-stationary boundary during the early afternoon hours on Friday (8/16). The strongest storm produced damaging winds across central Wisconsin.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 11:51 AM CST, 39 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1251 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rainfall in excess of one inch will be possible this afternoon into this evening. The heavy rain could produce localized flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas. - Strong storms, and perhaps a few severe storms, are possible over central, east-central, and far northeast Wisconsin this afternoon into early this evening. Damaging winds, hail and torrential rainfall are the main hazards. - Quiet weather conditions and near-normal temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s are expected Sunday into much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 419 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Saturday Shower/storm/fog trends, and heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm potential, are the the main forecast concerns today into Saturday. Rain & Storm Chances / Heavy Rain & Severe Wx Potential: The unsettled period of weather will continue into Saturday as vertically stacked low pressure slowly tracks from near Duluth early this morning to northeast WI afternoon/evening to Lower MI Saturday afternoon. Latest wave of showers and a few storms formed a little after midnight along/ahead of some moisture convergence and shortwave energy, with 1200-1600 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with. Heavy rain, gusts to ~30 mph and small hail (but high wet-bulb zero heights will limit hail production) look to be the main hazards with this activity as it spreads northeast through the early morning hours, with some other spotty/lighter showers possible. Then as low pressure and next shortwave pushes into the area, another round of showers and storms is expected to develop across the region. SB/MUCAPEs should remain/climb to 1500-2000 J/kg by late morning, with shear remaining fairly weak (up to 25 kts). While widespread severe storms are not expected, can't rule out an isolated severe storm or two with damaging winds being the main threat, with some small hail possible in the strongest cores. Best chance for a severe storm looks to be across central and eastern WI from 1-7pm, where the higher dewpoints, better shear/instability resides. SPC has placed most of this area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. While we won't highlight as the better threat appears to be just to our west, will need to monitor for the threat of some funnels or non-supercell tornadoes as the upper low moves in. Some issues about how much low-level instability we can get due to cloud cover, especially over the north. Better low-level vorticity also looks to remain our west (closer to the surface low), and by the time it gets here we should lose the better low level lapse rates /CAPE. Heavy rain will be the other main hazard from the showers/storms today into this evening. PWATs of 1.3-1.7" will remain in place, along with warm/deep cloud depths and tall/skinny CAPE, will provide for very efficient rain makers. Localized flooding will be possible, especially in flood prone and urban areas (due to high rain rates), and where any storms move over the same location. Slowest moving storms will be across northern WI. WPC has extended the Marginal Risk for excessive rain back into all of northeast WI. As the low slowly spins into Lower Michigan, cyclonic flow will bring wrap-around showers, clouds and possibly a few storms across the area later tonight into Saturday, with the greatest coverage across eastern WI. Locally heavy rain and localized flooding will be the main threat. Fog Trends: Dewpoints in the 60s to around 70, recent rains and relatively light winds have allowed fog/mist to develop across much of the area overnight. This will continue into the morning hours, with visibilities improving after sunrise. Some dense fog is expected, especially where any breaks in the clouds occur and where the heavier rain fell yesterday. But think the threat for widespread dense fog will remain on the low side due to the low stratus deck and showers pushing through to keep things stirred up. But will need to watch for the stratus deck lowering toward sunrise. Dewpoints won't be as high as tonight, but patchy fog is expected again, especially where the heavier rain falls today. Temperatures / Humidity: After a warm and muggy night, temps don't look to climb much today due the clouds/precip expected. However, with such a warm start, it won't take much warming to get highs in the mid 70s to low 80s across most of the area. Warmest temps will be in east central WI where the best chances for breaks in the clouds later this morning will be, with some mid 80s possible if the breaks are more persistent. Lows tonight should range from the upper 50s in north central WI to the mid 60s across eastern WI. CAA, clouds and precip will hold highs on Saturday mainly in the 70s, with a few upper 60s possible in far north central WI. It will humid today, especially in eastern WI where dewpoints will be around 70. Slightly less humid conditions arrive tonight into Saturday, but dewpoints will remain the 60s, keeping a touch of humidity in the air. Long Term...Saturday Night Through Thursday Relatively low impact weather remains expected late this weekend and for much of next week. With the large upper low continuing to spin across the central Great Lakes, deep cyclonic flow combined with ample moisture in the column will lead light showers continuing over at least eastern WI on Saturday night. The shower chance will finally depart on Sunday morning as the system slides further east. Thereafter, northwest flow will be present over the western Great Lakes through the middle of next week before the upstream ridge moves overhead around next Thursday and Friday. Models had been advertising a front moving into the region during the Wednesday- Thursday time frame, but confidence in this scenario has lowered over the past 24 hours. In general, precip chances look low next week. In terms of hazards, north flow on the backside of the departing low pressure system could lead to 25 kt winds on the Bay and Lake from Saturday night through Sunday night. Confidence is only medium that a small craft advisory will be needed. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Showers and thunderstorms were developing over the region due to increasing daytime instability (CAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg) and the approach of a well-defined short-wave trough over western WI. The first line of storms is poised to impact AUW/CWA at TAF issuance, with potential for torrential rainfall and gusts to 35-40 knots. The storms will continue to shift east through early evening, so have framed out TEMPO groups for the most likely period of storms at each TAF site. Flight conditions will vary between VFR and MVFR this afternoon and early evening, except for local IFR/LIFR vsbys in heavy rainfall during storms. Expect shower activity to wind down early this evening, though showers and isolated storms may continue to impact eastern WI, and especially Door county, through the rest of the TAF period. Look for MVFR ceilings to gradually lower to IFR/LIFR later tonight, and vsbys to drop to MVFR/IFR in fog. Not really expecting dense fog at this time, as N-NW winds will be picking up a bit later tonight into Saturday morning. The very low ceilings should start to rise during by late morning, with most locations improving to MVFR toward the end of the TAF period. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && DISCUSSION.....Bersch/MPC AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1050 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-171600- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- 1050 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms will impact the area. There is potential for isolated severe storms in central, east central, and far northeast Wisconsin between 2 and 9 pm. Damaging winds and torrential rainfall will be the main concerns. Localized flooding of urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas could occur. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday The chance of thunderstorms will continue on Saturday, but severe weather is not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to report any flooding, wind damage, hail, and rainfall totals in excess of an inch to the National Weather Service in Green Bay. LMZ521-522-541>543-171600- The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan- 1050 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake Michigan and the waters of Green Bay. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Areas of dense marine fog will impact marine navigation on Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Washington Island through early this afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible at times. Any storms may pose a threat to mariners. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday The chance of thunderstorms will continue on Saturday. Any storms may pose a threat to mariners. Conditions hazardous to small craft are possible from Saturday night through Sunday night due to gusty north winds. Kieckbusch
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
824 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM Rain Tomahawk 45.46N 89.73W
08/16/2024 M2.84 Inch Lincoln WI Cocorahs
Cocorahs station WI-LN-7 Tomahawk 1.2 SSW.
0630 AM Rain 3 NNE Spirit Falls 45.48N 89.95W
08/16/2024 M2.29 Inch Lincoln WI CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station TRIW3 Spirit Falls
2.7 NE.
1000 PM Rain Arbor Vitae 45.92N 89.66W
08/15/2024 M2.00 Inch Vilas WI Public
0700 AM Rain 4 SE Almond 44.21N 89.35W
08/16/2024 M1.74 Inch Waushara WI Cocorahs
Cocorahs station WI-WH-8 Almond 4.7 SE.
0800 AM Rain 1 NNW Neenah 44.20N 88.47W
08/16/2024 M1.39 Inch Winnebago WI Mesonet
Mesonet station OSKW3 Menasha 1.5 W.
0630 AM Rain 2 WSW Woodruff 45.89N 89.73W
08/16/2024 M1.39 Inch Oneida WI CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station MQRW3 Minocqua.
0810 AM Rain 4 N Heafford Junction 45.59N 89.72W
08/16/2024 M1.26 Inch Oneida WI Mesonet
Mesonet station TAWW3 Tomahawk 3 W.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
WIZ030-035-161745-
Wood WI-Marathon WI-
1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WOOD AND WESTERN MARATHON
COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM CDT...
At 1154 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Colby to near Pittsville. Movement was
east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Wisconsin Rapids, Marshfield, Pittsville, Babcock, Nekoosa, Port
Edwards, Stratford, Marathon City, Edgar, and Rib Falls.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4508 8985 4469 8983 4468 8985 4451 8984
4451 8982 4432 8981 4428 9025 4494 9028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 254DEG 18KT 4489 9020 4437 9017
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
GKPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1151 AM Tstm Wnd Gst SW Marshfield 44.65N 90.18W
08/16/2024 M43 MPH Wood WI ASOS
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
WIZ035-036-161830-
Wood WI-Portage WI-
1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WOOD AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTAGE COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM CDT...
At 1240 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wisconsin Rapids, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Wisconsin Rapids, Lake Wazeecha, Nekoosa, Port Edwards, Biron,
Vesper, Rudolph, Cranmoor, Kellner, and Walker.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4425 9004 4449 9005 4454 8962 4425 8962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 259DEG 16KT 4442 8992
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
GKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
121 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
WIZ036-037-161900-
Waupaca WI-Portage WI-
121 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTAGE AND SOUTHWESTERN WAUPACA
COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...
At 121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Whiting, or near Stevens Point, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Stevens Point, Waupaca, Whiting, Amherst, Chain O' Lakes-King,
Hartman Creek State Park, Plover, Stockton, King, and Jordan.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4425 8965 4454 8973 4462 8919 4424 8907
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 252DEG 27KT 4446 8959
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
GKThe Green Bay radar (KGRB), 83 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:29 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds snapped a few trees southwest of Waupaca. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1197778.